Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Naturlig familjeplanering : Kvinnor och mäns upplevenser samt sjuksköterskans kunskap och användningsområden

Syftet med studien var att beskriva hur kvinnor och män upplevde naturlig familjeplanering (NFP) samt vilken kunskap sjuksköterskan hade om NFP och när hon kunde använda sig av den i sin profession. Artiklar valdes ut från databaserna Elin, Pub Med och Blackwell synergy. De sökord som användes var NFP, Catholic, Satisfaction, Awareness, Odeblad, Billing, Billings, Nurse, Pregnancy, Birthcontrol, Family, Mucus, Family planning, Natural family planning och Ovulation. Sammanlagt valdes 18 artiklar ut varav 14 användes i resultatet. Två artiklar till resultatet söktes manuellt och beställdes. Artiklarna kom från Nigeria, USA, Ungern, Peru, Filippinerna, Sri Lanka, Brasilien, Nya Zeeland, Tyskland, Canada och Iran. Några artiklar från Sverige eller de nordiska länderna hittades inte under sökningen. Resultatet visade att många var nöjda med NFP som metod. Det som var bland det mest positiva var att metoden inte gav några bieffekter och att kvinnorna lärde känna sin kropp. Det negativt med metoden var att användarna tyckte att det var svårt att avhålla sig från samlag under den fertila perioden samt att det fanns brister i metodens säkerhet. Många av dem som använde sig av metoden var katoliker. Många sjusköterskor var dåligt pålästa om metoden och skulle inte rekommendera den. Sjuksköterskan skulle kunna använda sig av metoden då kvinnan ville bli gravid, i fattiga länder och där religion sätter stopp för traditionella preventivmedel.

Patriarchal values : girls are more apt to change

Patriarchal values: girls are more apt to change How has the family value system changed between generations, especially when taking into account the gender dimension? This article presents some results from a study carried outin 2007 in one village of the Gourani tribe where the people are followers of Ahle Hagh in Islamabad Gharb (west of Iran). The differences between generations (those born and raised before and after the Islamic Revolution) in patriarchal values in the family are statistically significant. The older generation opts for the man of the family to make most of the decisions; on children’s education, marriage, naming, the families expenditure, the place for residence, the social network of the family and even the number of children. The younger generation has a different value system and it has moved towards a more egalitarian type of family. With the gender variable included in the findings we see that although the values of the younger male population have evolved toward a less patriarchal decision making structure inthe family, the degree of changes among the young women is much higher. Looking into the preferences for male sex for the first child as well as a larger number of boys in the family, the difference between generations is significant. However data on the differences analyzed with the gender variable proves that the changes concerning the equality of sexes are mainly due to drastic changes in the young women’s value system. That is, the male population, young or old, still prefer to have a boy as their first born and to have more sons in the family. But the young female generation in the rural area sees less difference in having boys or girls in the family. It is concluded that reforms in the old value system is an evolving process of everyday life and that the girls are the main social force for change.