Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

The impact of foreign direct investment and openness on Vietnamese economy

This thesis examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Vietnamese economy based on Partial Adjustment Model and time series data from 1976 to 2004. FDI is shown to have not only short run but also long run effect on gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. However, elasticity of GDP with respect to FDI is small and it will take many years to fully manifest itself. The impact of trade openness on GDP has also been examined and it is shown to be stronger than that of FDI. The paper offers a number of explanations and discusses briefly suggestions in order to increase the contribution of FDI to Vietnam’s economic development.

The Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and EconomicGrowth: An Empirical Analysis Comparing Developing and DevelopedCountries

Gross domestic product (GDP) is generally considered as the most important index and comprehensive measure of the size of economy. This paper investigates empirically the relationship between transport infrastructure (focus on highways) and GDP growth based on a production function approach. The physical stocks of transport infrastructure were used instead of monetary data to measure public capital together with several other variables (labor and private capital) that were hypothesized to affect economic growth. Then we explore a number of subsequent studies that use panel data covering the period between 1992 and 2004. An investigation was done to compare developed countries and developing countries. Results indicate that physical units are positively and significantly related to economic growth. Furthermore there was an interesting finding that the output elasticity with respect to physical units for developed countries is higher than developing countries.

Evaluating Projects in a Dynamic Economy: Some New Envelope Results

This paper is concerned with the modern theory of social cost-benefit analysis in a dynamic economy. The theory emphasizes the role of a comprehensive, forward-looking, dynamic welfare index within the period of the project rather than that of a project's long-term consequences. However, what constitutes such a welfare index remains controversial in the recent literature. In this paper, we attempt to shed light on the issue by deriving three equivalent cost-benefit rules for evaluating a small project. In particular, we show that the direct change in net national product (NNP) qualifies as a convenient welfare index without involving any other induced side effects. The project evaluation criterion thus becomes the present discounted value of the direct changes in NNP over the project period. We also illustrate the application of this theory in a few stylized examples.

Entry, re-location and growth in the Swedish wholesale trade industry

Wholesale trade has an intermediate position between manufacturing and retail in the distributional channel. In modern economies, consumers buy few, if any, products directly from manufacture or producer. Instead, it is a wholesaler, who is in direct contact with producers, buying goods in larger quantities and selling them in smaller quantities to retailers. Traditionally, the main function of a wholesaler has been to push goods along the distributional channel from producer to retailer, or other nonend user. However, the function of wholesalers usually goes beyond the process of the physical distribution of goods. Wholesalers also arrange storage, perform market analyses, promote trade or provide technical support to consumers (Riemers 1998). The existence of wholesalers (and other intermediaries) in the distributional channel is based on the effective and efficient performance of distribution services, that are needed by producers and other members of the supply chain. Producers usually do not enjoy the economies of scale that they have in production, when it comes to providing distributional services (Rosenbloom 2007) and this creates a space for wholesalers or other intermediaries. Even though recent developments in the distributional channel indicate that traditional wholesaling activities now also compete with other supply chain organizations, wholesaling still remains an important activity in many economies (Quinn and Sparks, 2007). In 2010, the Swedish wholesale trade sector consisted of approximately 46.000 firms and generated an annual turnover of 1 300 billion SEK (Företagsstatistiken, Statistics Sweden). In terms of turnover, wholesaling accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product and is thereby the third largest industry. This is behind manufacturing and a composite group of firms in other sectors of the service industry but ahead of retailing. This indicates that the wholesale trade sector is an important part of the Swedish economy. The position of wholesaling is further reinforced when measuring productivity growth. Measured in terms of value added per employee, wholesaling experienced the largest productivity growth of all industries in the Swedish economy during the years 2000 through 2010. The fact that wholesale trade is one of the important parts of a modern economy, and the positive development of the Swedish wholesale trade sector in recent decades, leads to several questions related to industry dynamics. The three topics that will be examined in this thesis are firm entry, firm relocation and firm growth. The main question to be answered by this thesis is what factors influence new firm formation, firm relocation and firm growth in the Swedish wholesale trade sector?

An analysis of linkage between foreign direct investment and GDP per Capita in Pakistan : A time series analysis

This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

Modular Product Verifications Based on Design for Assembly

The desire to conquer markets through advanced product design and trendy business strategies are still predominant approaches in industry today. In fact, product development has acquired an ever more central role in the strategic planning of companies, and it has extended its influence to R&D funding levels as well. It is not surprising that many national R&D project frameworks within the EU today are dominated by product development topics, leaving production engineering, robotics, and systems on the sidelines. The reasons may be many but, unfortunately, the link between product development and the production processes they cater for are seldom treated in depth. The issue dealt with in this article relates to how product development is applied in order to attain the required production quality levels a company may desire, as well as how one may counter assembly defects and deviations through quantifiable design approaches. It is recognized that product verifications (tests, inspections, etc.) are necessary, but the application of these tactics often result in lead-time extensions and increased costs. Modular architectures improve this by simplifying the verification of the assembled product at module level. Furthermore, since Design for Assembly (DFA) has shown the possibility to identify defective assemblies, it may be possible to detect potential assembly defects already in the product and module design phase. The intention of this paper is to discuss and describe the link between verifications of modular architectures, defects and design for assembly. The paper is based on literature and case studies; tables and diagrams are included with the intention of increasing understanding of the relation between poor designs, defects and product verifications.