Predicting entry of Swedish wholesale firms into local markets

Applying microeconomic theory, we develop a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and test this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms. As in previous entry studies, profits are assumed to depend on firm- and location-specific factors,and the profit equation is estimated using panel data econometric techniques. Using the residuals from the profit equation estimations, we identify local markets in Sweden where firm profits are abnormally high given the level of all independent variables included in the profit function. From microeconomic theory, we then know that these local markets should have higher net entry than other markets, all else being equal, and we investigate this in a second step,also using a panel data econometric model. The results of estimating the net-entry equation indicate that four of five estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameter is only statistically significant at conventional levels in one of our estimated models.

”Tacksamhet för att jag fick ett nytt liv” : En kvalitativ studie om återanpassningsstrategier efter avtjänat fängelsestraff

Intresset för kriminalitet och individerna bakom de kriminella handlingarna ökar i samhället och återges i media dagligen. Det är just individen bakom brottet, hen som fängslas och får avtjäna sitt straff som denna studie riktar sitt fokus på. När fängelsegrindarna öppnas och återinträdet till samhället blir ett faktum; Hur tar då dessa individer sig tillbaka till samhället för att åter bli en del av det? Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka vilka återanpassningsstrategier som frigivna använder sig av samt hur samhällets bemötande påverkar strategierna. Studien baseras på självbiografier skrivna av fyra författare som alla levt ett kriminellt liv och som sedermera avtjänat ett eller flera fängelsestraff. Resultatet visar att det finns flera anpassningsstrategier som tas i bruk. Däribland att söka hjälp och stöd hos familj, vänner eller andra sociala grupper. Vidare återfinns det i strävan efter en ”ny identitet” vilket ofta sker med hjälp av tro. Att sysselsätta sig, ge något tillbaka till samhället, visa sin kreativitet i syfte att återfå sin kredibilitet kan ses som strategier som leder fram till det slutliga målet, kredibiliteten. Slutligen kunde ett samband mellan samhällets bemötande och återanpassningsstrategierna utrönas. Ju mer negativt bemötandet är desto fler återanpassningsstrategier behövs och arbetet för att uppnå dem blir mer krävande. Givet blir då att ett bemötande som fyllts av uppmuntran till individens förändring medför att färre strategier behövs och risken för återfall blir mindre.

Essays on firm dynamics in the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This thesis consists of a summary and five self-contained papers addressing dynamics of firms in the Swedish wholesale trade sector. Paper [1] focuses upon determinants of new firm formation in the Swedish wholesale trade sector, using two definitions of firms’ relevant markets, markets defined as administrative areas, and markets based on a cost minimizing behavior of retailers. The paper shows that new entering firms tend to avoid regions with already high concentration of other firms in the same branch of wholesaling, while right-of-the-center local government and quality of the infrastructure have positive impacts upon entry of new firms. The signs of the estimated coefficients remain the same regardless which definition of relevant market is used, while the size of the coefficients is generally higher once relevant markets delineated on the cost-minimizing assumption of retailers are used. Paper [2] analyses determinant of firm relocation, distinguishing between the role of the factors in in-migration municipalities and out-migration municipalities. The results of the analysis indicate that firm-specific factors, such as profits, age and size of the firm are negatively related to the firm’s decision to relocate. Furthermore, firms seems to be avoiding municipalities with already high concentration of firms operating in the same industrial branch of wholesaling and also to be more reluctant to leave municipalities governed by right-of-the- center parties. Lastly, firms seem to avoid moving to municipalities characterized with high population density. Paper [3] addresses determinants of firm growth, adopting OLS and a quantile regression technique. The results of this paper indicate that very little of the firm growth can be explained by the firm-, industry- and region-specific factors, controlled for in the estimated models. Instead, the firm growth seems to be driven by internal characteristics of firms, factors difficult to capture in conventional statistics. This result supports Penrose’s (1959) suggestion that internal resources such as firm culture, brand loyalty, entrepreneurial skills, and so on, are important determinants of firm growth rates. Paper [4] formulates a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and tests this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms and identification of low- and high-return local markets. The results indicate that 19 of 30 estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameters is only statistically significant at conventional level in one of our estimated models, and then with unexpected negative sign. Paper [5] studies effects of firm relocation on firm profits of relocating firms, employing a difference-in-difference propensity score matching. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differences between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced, while the difference-in-difference estimator controls for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. The results suggest that firms that relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the length of the analyzed period.