Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Power Management Controls

In an office building in the US the office equipment uses about 7% of the total electricity use. Eventhough this is a low number, there is still a reason to save more energy, especially since one third of theenergy savings are lost when power management is not enabled.The core in the project ”Power Management Controls” is to develop a voluntary standard, The UserInterface Standard, that manufacturers of office equipment can use as a reference when they developnew equipment and design new interfaces. The interface is an important part of the use of powermanagement and doing this should increase the use of power management and save more energy. Theinterfaces are ofter hidden or inconsistent and confusing, which makes it harder for the user tounderstand power management. A more consistent interface makes it easier for the user to understandthe meaning of an interface and power management itselfThe standard consists of six different parts, which describe what can be done to achieve a consistentinterface. The standard also describes the part of the project called Dynamic Behavior. This part isconcentrating on the interfaces and the behavior of the device over time, which is important for the userto understand.The purpose of this degree project is to study and participate in the project ”Power ManagementControls”, and to understand what is being done to save more energy.

Travel Report from the first field trip within the SIDA supported project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility : Including visits to Ihushi Development Center, Tweyambe Secondary School and Mavuno Project in Tanzania. Conducted in April 2011

This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.

Energy Efficiency through Thermal Energy Storage : Possibilities for the Swedish Building Stock

The need for heating and cooling in buildings constitutes a considerable part of the total energy use in a country and reducing this need is of outmost importance in order to reach national and international goals for reducing energy use and emissions. One important way of reaching these goals is to increase the proportion of renewable energy used for heating and cooling of buildings. Perhaps the largest obstacle with this is the often occurring mismatch between the availability of renewable energy and the need for heating or cooling, hindering this energy to be used directly. This is one of the problems that can be solved by using thermal energy storage (TES) in order to save the heat or cold from when it is available to when it is needed. This thesis is focusing on the combination of TES techniques and buildings to achieve increased energy efficiency for heating and cooling. Various techniques used for TES as well as the combination of TES in buildings have been investigated and summarized through an extensive literature review. A survey of the Swedish building stock was also performed in order to define building types common in Sweden. Within the scope of this thesis, the survey resulted in the selection of three building types, two single family houses and one office building, out of which the two residential buildings were used in a simulation case study of passive TES with increased thermal mass (both sensible and latent). The second case study presented in the thesis is an evaluation of an existing seasonal borehole storage of solar heat for a residential community. In this case, real measurement data was used in the evaluation and in comparisons with earlier evaluations. The literature reviews showed that using TES opens up potential for reduced energy demand and reduced peak heating and cooling loads as well as possibilities for an increased share of renewable energy to cover the energy demand. By using passive storage through increased thermal mass of a building it is also possible to reduce variations in the indoor temperature and especially reduce excess temperatures during warm periods, which could result in avoiding active cooling in a building that would otherwise need it. The analysis of the combination of TES and building types confirmed that TES has a significant potential for increased energy efficiency in buildings but also highlighted the fact that there is still much research required before some of the technologies can become commercially available. In the simulation case study it was concluded that only a small reduction in heating demand is possible with increased thermal mass, but that the time with indoor temperatures above 24 °C can be reduced by up to 20%. The case study of the borehole storage system showed that although the storage system worked as planned, heat losses in the rest of the system as well as some problems with the system operation resulted in a lower solar fraction than projected. The work presented within this thesis has shown that TES is already used successfully for many building applications (e.g. domestic hot water stores and water tanks for storing solar heat) but that there still is much potential in further use of TES. There are, however, barriers such as a need for more research for some storage technologies as well as storage materials, especially phase change material storage and thermochemical storage.

Thermal energy storage in Swedish single family houses : a case study

In a Nordic climate, space heating (SH) and domestic hot water (DHW) used in buildings constitute a considerable part of the total energy use in the country. For 2010, energy used for SH and DHW amounted to almost 90 TWh in Sweden which corresponds to 60 % of the energy used in the residential and service sector, or almost 24 % of the total final energy use for the country. Storing heat and cold with the use of thermal energy storage (TES) can be one way of increasing the energy efficiency of a building by opening up possibilities for alternative sources of heat or cold through a reduced mismatch between supply and demand. Thermal energy storage without the use of specific control systems are said to be passive and different applications using passive TES have been shown to increase energy efficiency and/or reduce power peaks of systems supplying the heating and cooling needs of buildings, as well as having an effect on the indoor climate. Results are however not consistent between studies and focus tend to be on the reduction of cooling energy or cooling power peaks. In this paper, passive TES introduced through an increased thermal mass in the building envelope to two single family houses with different insulation standard is investigated with building energy simulations. A Nordic climate is used and the focus of this study is both on the reduction of space heating demand and space heating power, as well as on reduction of excess temperatures in residential single family houses without active cooling systems. Care is taken to keep the building envelope characteristics other than the thermal mass equal for all cases so that any observations made can be derived to the change in thermal mass. Results show that increasing the sensible thermal mass in a single family house can reduce the heating demand only slightly (1-4 %) and reduce excess temperatures (temperatures above 24 degrees C) by up to 20 %. Adding a layer of PCM (phase change materials) to the light building construction can give similar reduction in heating demand and excess temperatures, however the phase change temperature is important for the results.

Energy Efficiency through Thermal Energy Storage - Evaluation of the Possibilities for the Swedish Building Stock, Phase 1

As a first step in assessing the potential of thermal energy storage in Swedish buildings, the current situation of the Swedish building stock and different storage methods are discussed in this paper. Overall, many buildings are from the 1960’s or earlier having a relatively high energy demand, creating opportunities for large energy savings. The major means of heating are electricity for detached houses and district heating for multi dwelling houses and premises. Cooling needs are relatively low but steadily increasing, emphasizing the need to consider energy storage for both heat and cold. The thermal mass of a building is important for passive storage of thermal energy but this has not been considered much when constructing buildings in Sweden. Instead, common ways of storing thermal energy in Swedish buildings today is in water storage tanks or in the ground using boreholes, while latent thermal energy storage is still very uncommon.

Steel Sheet Applications and Integrated Heat Management

Increasing energy use has caused many environmental problems including global warming. Energy use is growing rapidly in developing countries and surprisingly a remarkable portion of it is associated with consumed energy to keep the temperature comfortable inside the buildings. Therefore, identifying renewable technologies for cooling and heating is essential. This study introduced applications of steel sheets integrated into the buildings to save energy based on existing technologies. In addition, the proposed application was found to have a considerable chance of market success. Also, satisfying energy needs for space heating and cooling in a single room by using one of the selected applications in different Köppen climate classes was investigated to estimate which climates have a proper potential for benefiting from the application. This study included three independent parts and the results related to each part have been used in the next part. The first part recognizes six different technologies through literature review including Cool Roof, Solar Chimney, Steel Cladding of Building, Night Radiative Cooling, Elastomer Metal Absorber, and Solar Distillation. The second part evaluated the application of different technologies by gathering the experts’ ideas via performing a Delphi method. The results showed that the Solar Chimney has a proper chance for the market. The third part simulated both a solar chimney and a solar chimney with evaporation which were connected to a single well insulated room with a considerable thermal mass. The combination was simulated as a system to estimate the possibility of satisfying cooling needs and heating needs in different climate classes. A Trombe-wall was selected as a sample design for the Solar Chimney and was simulated in different climates. The results implied that the solar chimney had the capability of reducing the cooling needs more than 25% in all of the studied locations and 100% in some locations with dry or temperate climate such as Mashhad, Madrid, and Istanbul. It was also observed that the heating needs were satisfied more than 50% in all of the studied locations, even for the continental climate such as Stockholm and 100% in most locations with a dry climate. Therefore, the Solar Chimney reduces energy use, saves environment resources, and it is a cost effective application. Furthermore, it saves the equipment costs in many locations. All the results mentioned above make the solar chimney a very practical and attractive tool for a wide range of climates.