Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

NAVET's Boxes - an Evaluation of the Post-Visit Loan Service at a Science Centre in Borås

Many pedagogues believe science centres to be a good complement to the more formal school teaching. For a visit to a science centre to be as educational as possible, there is a need for pre-visit information of some sort, a guided visit, and post-visit work. Many science centres offer loan services of different kinds. At Navet, a science centre in Borås, teachers can borrow boxes with experiments connected to the different themes they provide. The experiments are supposed to be a continuation of the visit and help settle the knowledge gained during the visit. This thesis is an evaluation of how the boxes function in the schools, and what the teachers think of them. The study was conducted through questionnaires and interviews with both teachers and the staff at Navet. The results of the study are very positive. Many teachers have been involved with Navet from the very beginning and they see a visit to Navet as an integrated part of their teaching. Some boxes work better than others and some might need clearer information, but overall the teachers see the boxes as timesavers, as a way to vary their teaching more easily, and as a help for teachers not specialized in mathematics and science.

Systematic work environment management : experiences from implementation in Swedish small-scale enterprises

Small-scale enterprises face difficulties in fulfilling the regulations for organising Systematic Work Environment Management. This study compared three groups of small-scale manufacturing enterprises with and without support for implementing the provision. Two implementation methods, supervised and network method, were used. The third group worked according to their own ideas. Twenty-three enterprises participated. The effects of the implementation were evaluated after one year by semi-structured dialogue with the manager and safety representative. Each enterprise was classified on compliance with ten demands concerning the provision. The work environment was estimated by the WEST-method. Impact of the implementation on daily work was also studied. At the follow-up, the enterprises in the supervised method reported slightly more improvements in the fulfilment of the demands in the provision than the enterprises in the network method and the enterprises working on their own did. The effect of the project reached the employees faster in the enterprises with the supervised method. In general, the work environment improved to some extent in all enterprises. Extensive support to small-scale enterprises in terms of advise and networking aimed to fulfil the regulations of Systematic Work Environment Management had limited effect especially considering the cost of applying these methods.

Improving continence services for older people from the service-providers’ perspective : a qualitative interview study

Objective: To examine in depth the views and experiences of continence service leads in England on key service and continence management characteristics in order to identify and to improve our understanding of barriers to a good-quality service and potential facilitators to develop and to improve services for older people with urinary incontinence (UI). Design: Qualitative semistructured interviews using a purposive sample recruited across 16 continence services. Setting: 3 acute and 13 primary care National Health Service Trusts in England. Participants: 16 continence service leads in England actively treating and managing older people with UI. Results: In terms of barriers to a good-quality service, participants highlighted a failure on the part of commissioners, managers and other health professionals in recognising the problem of UI and in acknowledging the importance of continence for older people and prevalent negative attitudes towards continence and older people. Patient assessment and continence promotion regardless of age, rather than pad provision, were identified as important steps for a good-quality service for older people with UI. More rapid and appropriate patient referral pathways, investment in service capacity, for example, more trained staff and strengthened interservice collaborations and a higher profile within medical and nurse training were specified as being important facilitators for delivering an equitable and highquality continence service. There is a need, however, to consider the accounts given by our participants as perhaps serving the interests of their professional group within the context of interprofessional work. Conclusions: Our data point to important barriers and facilitators of a good-quality service for older people with UI, from the perspective of continence service leads. Further research should address the views of other stakeholders, and explore options for the empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of identified service facilitators.