Government spending and unemployment : An empirical study on Sweden, 1994-2012

The aim of the study was to see if any relationship between government spending andunemployment could be empirically found. To test if government spending affectsunemployment, a statistical model was applied on data from Sweden. The data was quarterlydata from the year 1994 until 2012, unit-root test were conducted and the variables wheretransformed to its first-difference so ensure stationarity. This transformation changed thevariables to growth rates. This meant that the interpretation deviated a little from the originalgoal. Other studies reviewed indicate that when government spending increases and/or taxesdecreases output increases. Studies show that unemployment decreases when governmentspending/GDP ratio increases. Some studies also indicated that with an already largegovernment sector increasing the spending it could have negative effect on output. The modelwas a VAR-model with unemployment, output, interest rate, taxes and government spending.Also included in the model were a linear and three quarterly dummies. The model used 7lags. The result was not statistically significant for most lags but indicated that as governmentspending growth rate increases holding everything else constant unemployment growth rateincreases. The result for taxes was even less statistically significant and indicates norelationship with unemployment. Post-estimation test indicates that there were problems withnon-normality in the model. So the results should be interpreted with some scepticism.

Growth, migration and unemployment across Swedish municipalities

Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their economic growth rates vary, whether their growth tends to converge and the key factors that contribute to the variations. These questions have not yet been fully addressed, but changes in the local tax base are clearly influenced by the average income growth rate, net migration rate, and changes in unemployment rates. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to explore in depth the interactive effects of these factors (and local policy variables) in Swedish municipalities, by estimating a proposed three-equation system. Our main finding is that increases in local public expenditures and income taxes have negative effects on subsequent local income growth. In addition, our results support the conditional convergence hypothesis, i.e. that average income tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables.

Vad säger statistik om arbetslöshet? : En analys av den offentliga debattenom arbetslösheten i Sverige inför valet 2005

This essay examines the public debate concerning the unemployment of Sweden just before the general election 2005. Its main purpose is to analyse what lies behind the huge differences in statistics, as presented by the two leading factions in the debate. It concludes that these differences are foremost a problem of semantics, and that although the two factions have statistical proof of their claims, it is their use of terminology that is in fact their main weapon in the debate.The key word here is the swedish word for employment – sysselsättning – which the two facitons use in entirely different ways, creating a lot of possabilities for interpretation. This has caused a type of debate which is actually about the reinterpretation this word, and those who are to be included in the statistics as being “sysselsatt”, therefore, it is semantics that affects the number of unemployed people in the statistics.

Integration eller illusion : et deviance-perspektiv

Integration or illusion – a deviance perspective Denmark experienced one of its most successful periods of economic growth in 2004– 2008 with a tremendous reduction of unemployment, which in June 2008 was around. 1.5 percent, far below the expected level of structural unemployment. In the wake of this development the lack of utilization of migrants’ educations and skills became, once again, a core concern. The political, societal and academic debate followed to a great extent the traditional top-down approach to the problem and revolved around two axes: 1. How effective the labour market was/is to make use of migrants’ skills. 2. Whether there were patterns of over-education as expression of institutional and societal discrimination. The focus of the present study is, however, quite different: We examine the pattern of deviance in relation to labour market participation (not integration), and instead of searching for explanations for the lack of integration, we attempt to identify and explain the deviance pattern as a product of institutionally inherent possibilities and barriers on the one hand and articulating immigrants as rational actors (not victims) on the other. We argue that deviance is not only a more fruitful theoretical and analytical framework than integration and discrimination. Taking departure in empirical evidence on immigrants’ preferences and behaviour as bounded rational actors, and how they actually articulate their everyday life practical experiences, including adjustment of what they want and what they can, the deviance perspective, we believe, also reduces the theoretical and normative biases, that characterises the discrimination and integration framework, and provide more reliable explanations. 

High-School Students´ Summer Jobs and their Ensuing Labor Market Achievement : the Long Term Effect

In part because of high and persistent youth unemployment, adolescent students’ transition from school to work is an important policy and research topic. Many countries have implemented public programs offering summer jobs or work while in high-school as measures to smooth the transition. While the immediate effect of the programs on school attendance, school grades, and disposable income is well documented, their effect on the transition to the labor market remains an open question. Observational studies have shown strong positive effects of summer jobs, but also that the estimated effect is highly vulnerable to selection bias. In this paper, some 3700 high-school students applying for summer jobs in the period 1995-2003,via a program, are followed to 30 years of age. A quarter of the applicants were randomly offered a summer job each year. Among the remaining students, 50% had a (non-program related) summer job while in high-school. We find the income, post high-school, for the offered and non-offered groups to be similar and conclude that the effect of summer jobs on the transition to the labor market is inconsequential.

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

Göra illa för att hjälpa eller hjälpa till att göra illa? : Arbetslösas reservationslöner, jobbchanser och återanställningsinkomster

Hurting to help or helping to hurt? The reservation wages of unemployed, job chances and reemployment incomes in Sweden Economic incentives and their impact on the job search behaviour of the unemployed have been a central focus in the academic and political debate in Sweden. A key concept has been the reservation wages of the unemployed, the lowest income at which an unemployed person would be willing to accept a job offer. Unemployment benefit systems have been argued to raise and maintain reservation wages at high levels that lower job chances. This has been supported by a large number of international studies. From this perspective lower reservation wages would function as protection against long term unemployment and the scarring effects associated with it. High reservation wages might however, based on the same behavioural assumptions, have a human capital preserving effect. The possibility to hold out for the right job should reduce human capital losses compared to accepting the first available job offer. In this article we use Swedish longitudinal micro data combining interview and register data in order to investigate three central aspects reservation wages in a Swedish context: factors influencing the setting of reservation wages, the effect of reservation wage on job chances and the impact of reservation wages on reemployment incomes. Our findings show that benefit level and pre-unemployment position in the wage structure are central factors for setting the reservation wage. The effects of reservation wages were however not the expected. No effects were found on job chances, while a strong positive effect was found on reemployment income. This together indicates that high reservation wages have a human capital preserving effect in Sweden.

Essays on growth and environment

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

Fanfiction : la anonimicidad, el texto y el armario

This essay looks at slash, a genre within fanfiction, from the perspective of Sedgwick’s theory of the closet, which reflects on the concealing mechanisms associated with homosexuality. While the real author stays in the closet, disguised behind a pseudonym, slash texts present homosexual themes in a very explicit way, often relying on humor or subversive elements. Between these two spheres, the real author and the text, we can find what we call the author’s voice, conscious about the existing homophobic structures, a voice that uses different strategies to shield itself against them. Internet, with the possibility to stay anonymous, serves as a social closet where the masked authors create texts that subvert heteronormativity.

No consensus on gestational diabetes mellitus screening regimes in Sweden : pregnancy outcomes in relation to different screening regimes 2011 to 2012, a cross-sectional study

Background: Although associated adverse pregnancy outcomes, no international or Swedish consensus exists that identifies a cut-off value or what screening method to use for definition of gestational diabetes mellitus. This study investigates the following: i) guidelines for screening of GDM; ii) background and risk factors for GDM and selection to OGTT; and iii) pregnancy outcomes in relation to GDM, screening regimes and levels of OGTT 2 hour glucose values. Methods: This cross-sectional and population-based study uses data from the Swedish Maternal Health Care Register (MHCR) (2011 and 2012) combined with guidelines for GDM screening (2011-2012) from each Maternal Health Care Area (MHCA) in Sweden. The sample consisted of 184, 183 women: 88, 140 in 2011 and 96,043 in 2012. Chi-square and two independent samples t-tests were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Four screening regimes of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (75 g of glucose) were used: A) universal screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 10.0 mmol/L; B) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 8.9 mmol/L; C) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 10.0 mmol/L; and D) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 12.2 mmol/L. The highest prevalence of GDM (2.9%) was found with a 2-hour cut-off value of 8.9 mmol/L when selective screening was applied. Unemployment and low educational level were associated with an increased risk of GDM. The OR was 4.14 (CI 95%: 3.81-4.50) for GDM in obese women compared to women with BMI <30 kg/m(2). Women with non-Nordic origin presented a more than doubled risk for GDM compared to women with Nordic origin (OR = 2.24; CI 95%: 2.06-2.43). Increasing OGTT values were associated with increasing risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Conclusions: There was no consensus regarding screening regimes for GDM from 2011 through 2012 when four different regimes were applied in Sweden. Increasing levels of OGTT 2-hour glucose values were strongly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Based on these findings, we suggest that Sweden adopts the recent recommendations of the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) concerning the performance of OGTT and the diagnostic criteria for GDM.