Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Intern kontroll: En fallstudie på Trafikverket

Internal control is something that’s grown more important for enterprises to keep in mind. The community is increasingly affected by the IT-development which demands a bigger degree of security. Enterprises needs to make sure that their systems are up to date and secure enough to keep it safe from unauthorized to take part of sensitive information. Internal control can exist in a major part of the work. If an enterprise have a goal for no harm or serious injury at work, internal control is necessary to reach that goal. The purpose for this essay is to examine how five different departments of Trafikverket practices internal control. How internal control is described. How the guidance from the managements is described and how it reaches the rest of the enterprise. This will lead to a proposal of improvement of the internal control at Trafikverket. We focus our frame of reference on the COSO-model and its five components. The components included in the COSO-model are control environment, risk valuation, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. The essay is a case-study of Trafikverket. We have chosen a qualitative method and interviewed five respondents from the different departments on Trafikverket. The respondents we interviewed works with internal control in their everyday work or have a god insight in the subject. We used a semi structured interview guide with questions based on the COSO framework. The results from our study shows that it exist big variations between how the departments work with internal control. It emerged that there are new guidelines for how the work should be done. This makes it necessary with education to implement the new ways to work. How the departments use the COSO-model varies. Some of them have incorporated the model in their new ways to work others have never heard of it. The conclusion of our study shows that the COSO-model and it´s components contribute to a functioning internal control. Implementing the components is important and the most important feature to good internal control is the corporate management. Education within the enterprise is the most effective way to inform the staff about the model and to implement it.