MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

The Application Of Renewable Energy For Prefab Houses In Germany

Within the framework of the REBUS project the German building industry has been investigated regarding their energy concepts. The intention was to evaluatethe establishment of renewable energy sources on the German market for new built houses and prefab houses in particular. For this purpose the products of 85manufacturers of prefab houses have been analyzed. Of special interest was the applicationof heating and hot water systems driven by solar energy and biomass. The results show that both techniques are well accepted and established. Almost 90% of themanufacturers offer solar systems on request and almost 70% heating systems based on Pellets. 24% offered solar and 7% as standard options in their range. From theachieved figures the potential of the Swedish market can be worked out. Strategies to introduce renewable energy to a greater extent to Swedish house manufacturers and builders might also be found.