3 resultados para Analysis economic and energy

em Dalarna University College Electronic Archive


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This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

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The expression 'global climate change' no longer designates merely a discourse on possible future risks; today it us used as a shorthand for specific ongoing events that are having a serious impact on the lives of people around the world. In the light of this change and consequent efforts to limit carbon dioxide emissions, contributions from social scientists are increasingly in demand within the study of energy use. My concern here is not whether intervention is a proper role for anthropologists, but rather how we may position ourselves within energy- and climate-related research.

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This paper uses examples from a Swedish study to suggest some ways in which cultural variation could be included in studies of thermal comfort. It is shown how only a slight shift of focus and methodological approach could help us discover aspects of human life that add to previous knowledge within comfort research of how human beings perceive and handle warmth and cold. It is concluded that it is not enough for buildings, heating systems and thermal control devices to be energy-efficient in a mere technical sense. If these are to help to decrease, rather than to increase, energy consumption, they have to support those parts of already existing habits and modes of thought that have the potential for low energy use. This is one reason why culture-specific features and emotional cores need to be investigated and deployed into the study and development of thermal comfort.