MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Poverty as an Abuse of Human Rights in Ghana. : A grass roots perspective on poverty and human rights.

The study aimed at getting a grass root opinion on poverty and why Ghana is still poor after 50 years of independence in spite of her richness in natural resources, second largest producer of cocoa in the word and appreciable stable political environment. The opinions of the ordinary people in the Bia district and their observed living conditions was analysed in line with theoretical basis of the study and previous studies to justify the stance that poverty should be considered as an abuse of human rights. It was concluded based on position of informants and previous data available that though many factors have been raised by previous scholars as the cause of poverty, the actions and inactions of both internal and external power-holders is the main source of poverty in Ghana. It was proposed that for poverty to be reduced in a sustainable way there should be strong civil society groups and active citizens through civic education to hold power-holders accountable. Until the actions and inactions of power-holders which have subjected many Ghanaians into intergenerational poverty are seen as human rights abuse, the rights of many Ghanaians would be constantly abused. This will eventually defeat the promotion of human rights culture in Ghana.

Processes of feelings in a society with a violent past : A qualitative study of the communication for Societal healing in the Truth Commissions in East Timor, Sri Lanka and Ghana between 2002-2011

The research investigates in what extent and how communication for meeting feelings is provided in Truth Commission work. It examines if and in what way feelings are addressed in the communication officially published by the Truth Commissions in East Timor, Ghana and Sri Lanka, occurring between 2002-2011. The research is also looking at the healing processes in a time perspective to find out if there is a communication for Societal healing to be continued in a longer term. My conclusion is that two cases of three in my research, the TRCs in Ghana and East Timor, have communication clearly directed to meet feelings caused by the war. One of the three cases (East Timor) has a communication with a clear ambition to heal over a longer period, to continue after the existence of the Truth Commission. The research suggests that communication with a clear ambition to reach out widely in the society, a communication directed to meet and process feelings over a longer period, can make Societal healing more effective. It also concludes that, in the future, Societal healing, as a field in conflict resolution, will be more based on representational media than today, provided through web communication.