Forecasting with Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This work concerns forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models when errorsare correlated. Point forecasts are numerically obtained using bootstrap methods andillustrated by two examples. Evaluation concentrates on studying forecast equality andencompassing. Nonlinear impulse responses are further considered and graphically sum-marized by highest density region. Finally, two macroeconomic data sets are used toillustrate our work. The forecasts from linear or nonlinear model could contribute usefulinformation absent in the forecasts form the other model.

Extended local labor markets due to high speed trains : Visualization of estimations in the Swedish national travel demand forecasting tool, SAMPERS

Wider economic benefits resulting from extended geographical mobility is one argument for investments in high-speed rail. More specifically, the argument for high-speed trains in Sweden has been that they can help to further spatially extend labor market regions which in turn has a positive effect on growth and development. In this paper the aim is to cartographically visualize the potential size of the labor markets in areas that could be affected by possible future high-speed trains. The visualization is based on the forecasts of labor mobility with public transport made by the Swedish national mobility transport forecasting tool, SAMPERS, for two alternative high-speed rail scenarios. The analysis, not surprisingly, suggests that the largest impact of high-speed trains results in the area where the future high speed rail tracks are planned to be built. This expected effect on local labor market regions of high-speed trains could mean that possible regional economic development effects also are to be expected in this area. However, the results, in general, from the SAMPERS forecasts indicaterelatively small increases in local labor market potentials.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Daily Calls Volume Forecasting

A massive amount has been written about forecasting but few articles are written about the development of time series models of call volumes for emergency services. In this study, we use different techniques for forecasting and make the comparison of the techniques for the call volume of the emergency service Rescue 1122 Lahore, Pakistan. For the purpose of this study data is taken from emergency calls of Rescue 1122 from 1st January 2008 to 31 December 2009 and 731 observations are used. Our goal is to develop a simple model that could be used for forecasting the daily call volume. Two different approaches are used for forecasting the daily call volume Box and Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology and Smoothing methodology. We generate the models for forecasting of call volume and present a comparison of the two different techniques.

Enhancing the distribution of Swedish tourism services on international markets : Possible export-ready criteria requisitioned by European tour operators

This paper identifies subjects which are relevant for Swedish suppliers of tourism services beforeapproaching foreign markets. Most suppliers are micro, small or medium sized companies anduse intermediaries, such as tour operators, for internationalization. The research considers theopinion of British and German tour operators, which require some criteria beforehand in orderto simplify both the initialization and the development of cooperation. Destination marketingorganizations (DMOs) are hereby the go-betweens since they not only represent small-scalesuppliers on international markets, but also initiate first encounters between suppliers and touroperators. Suppliers need to provide DMOs with accurate information in order to ensure thebest possible representation. After initializing collaboration, business relationships are sought todevelop in order to facilitate long-term cooperation. Proper preparation forms therefore the basefor strengthening the competitiveness of Swedish tourism prior approaching internationalmarkets. The enhancement of distributing Swedish tourism services on foreign markets appearedto be a profitable way to enable further growth, which is strongly limited on the domestic market.Increasing the export share therefore secures and further facilitates tourism’s valuablecontributions to the Swedish economy.

The Role of Gay Spaces for a Gay Destination : Gay Tourism in Gran Canaria

This thesis has the aim to evaluate the role of gay spaces in Gran Canaria as a gay tourists destination with particular reference to gay exclusive resorts. The validation of the gay identity is a key motivation for homosexuals to travel, in order to connect with other homosexuals and experience the gay life that they might not be able to experience at home. Gay spaces have been defined both as liberated areas as well as ghettos, where the homosexuals are, in a way, restrained. The method chosen, a small number of semi- structured interviews with managers of gay exclusive resorts in Maspalomas, the hub of gay life in Gran Canaria, where major LGBT events are held, there is a gay friendly environment, a thriving gay scene and many gay exclusive resorts. In the case of Gran Canaria the gay-specific offer is complementary to the ‘regular’ tourism offer, as they coexist, complement and at times overlap. Nevertheless the gay centric holiday is still predominant amongst gay men, and it is likely to continue to be according to the informants. This is because gay tourists seek freedom and a sense of inclusion that they would not be able to find in mixed environments.

Arctic Tourism: Realities & Possibilities

This paper addresses human capital in the Arctic in relation to tourism. More specifically, with an ever-increasing number oftourists recognizing the attractiveness of the Arctic, tour companies are increasingly recognizing the opportunities. The media(typically southern media) sells the image, either before or after the tourists arrive, and communities are often left to deal with therepercussions – whether those are social, economic, environmental, or the like. Many of the repercussions are negative; however,even when perceived as positive they can create tensions within small communities and showcase a variety of capacity issues.This paper focuses on the realities and possibilities of tourism in the Arctic. It offers an up-to-date descriptive overview of tourismnumbers and valuations. In addition, ‘realities’ also focuses on the current suite of challenges and ‘possibilities’ addresses criticalquestions that need to be asked as tourism grows. We are in an uncertain age and academic critique of the Arctic tourismphenomenon is growing as quickly as the numbers. This paper is almost fully circumpolar in outlook, written by individuals fromthose jurisdictions, and aims to intersect with other sectors active in the Arctic.

Managing Seasonality in Tourism : Challenges and Opportunities for the Tourism Industry in Húsavík, Iceland

Seasonality is a common phenomenon in the tourism industry around the world. Húsavík, a town on the northern coast of Iceland, has experienced tremendous growth in tourism in recent years and is sometimes recognised as the „Whale Watching Capital of Europe‟. However, Húsavík faces extreme seasonality with high demand mainly during the summer months and limited or no demand at other times of the year. As is emphasised in the tourism literature and widely in practice, seasonality is frequently seen as a problem for the tourism industry which has to be tackled. Academic research has never before been done on seasonality in Húsavík and the aim of this thesis is to understand the nature of seasonality within the tourism industry in Húsavík and discover potential ways to reduce seasonality in Húsavík tourism. In order to fulfil the aim, qualitative semi-structured interviews were undertaken with six tourism managers in Húsavík to investigate their perceptions of seasonality and if and how it could be managed. The results confirmed that the peripheral location of the destination stimulates seasonality and it poses major economic challenges for tourism businesses in Húsavík. Managers would prefer a longer tourism season. Several recommendations were provided for how to reduce seasonality such as develop other attractions than whale watching, improve accessibility, focus marketing on seasons outside the summer, and offer winter packages for foreign and domestic tourists.

Factors influencing tourism sustainability : The case of the World Heritage Falun Great Copper Mountain

This thesis focuses on identifying hindrances of achieving a sustainable tourism development on a base of a World Heritage Site. Using a case study of the World Heritage Site Falun Great Copper Mountain, the thesis assesses the situational context by using qualitative methods. Five semi- structured interviews with influential stakeholders were conducted to get an inside view of the current situation and to identify site-specific issues. The thesis identifies a number of factors that determine the successful implementation of measures leading towards sustainable tourism in the long-run; the most important being the lack of clear guidelines for the whole destination and no holistic planning approach within the municipality. The thesis concludes that despite the increased pressures towards establishment of sustainable tourism, the concept remains challenging to operationalize for the World Heritage Site without frameworks and tools from UNESCO.

Student satisfaction in tourism education : The case of Dalarna University, Borlänge, Sweden

The students' expectations must be met to ensure their overall satisfaction. Because of this student satisfaction has become a measurement tool with which the universities can compete against each other in order to attract potential students and also a higher level of internal and external funding. This thesis deals with students' overall satisfaction in tourism education at Dalarna University in Sweden. It is important to understand what it takes for the universities to be able to produce a motivated workforce for the communities and how satisfied students could help in achieving this goal. Sweden was selected because of the recent introduction of tuition fees, in 2010, which has made it even more crucial to understand the factors affecting students' satisfaction. The method chosen for conducting this study was a questionnaire where the students of Dalarna University were asked to rate different aspects of their overall experience on a Likert scale. The research was conducted via Facebook and email questionnaire. The results show different levels of satisfaction based on the tourism programmes and gender for example. The major finding from this research implicate that the social conditions and surrounding city categories are the most influential when it comes to the overall satisfaction of students at Dalarna University. The results give the university and the city of Borlänge an insight on issues that really matter to the students and how to improve them.

The Development of Swedish Tourism Public Policy 1930-2010

In this article, the development and changes in Swedish public policy relating to tourism from the 1930s to 2010 is described and interpreted from a political economy perspective. A case study, compiled from mainly secondary sources, is analyzed from a theoretical framework based on regulation theory. The purpose with this study is to increase the understanding of how the macro political economy context has influenced the policy-making in tourism in Sweden, but also to make a contribution to an area which seems to be quite neglected when it comes to research. The changes are analyzed according to the three periods denoted as pre-Fordism (mid-19th century-1930s), Fordism (1930s-1970s) and post-Fordism (1970s to present). It is observed how the general changes between these periods regarding aspects such as regulation and deregulation, and the degree of state involvement, have affected tourism policy making. The tourism policy making has changed from being insignificant, to a high degree of state involvement including planning, control and supervision, to a situation where the market rather than government regulation is considered as state of the art.