3 resultados para Uncertain parameters

em CUNY Academic Works


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Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.

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The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

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Microwave remote sensing has high potential for soil moisture retrieval. However, the efficient retrieval of soil moisture depends on optimally choosing the soil moisture retrieval parameters. In this study first the initial evaluation of SMOS L2 product is performed and then four approaches regarding soil moisture retrieval from SMOS brightness temperature are reported. The radiative transfer equation based tau-omega rationale is used in this study for the soil moisture retrievals. The single channel algorithms (SCA) using H polarisation is implemented with modifications, which includes the effective temperatures simulated from ECMWF (downscaled using WRF-NOAH Land Surface Model (LSM)) and MODIS. The retrieved soil moisture is then utilized for soil moisture deficit (SMD) estimation using empirical relationships with Probability Distributed Model based SMD as a benchmark. The square of correlation during the calibration indicates a value of R2 =0.359 for approach 4 (WRF-NOAH LSM based LST with optimized roughness parameters) followed by the approach 2 (optimized roughness parameters and MODIS based LST) (R2 =0.293), approach 3 (WRF-NOAH LSM based LST with no optimization) (R2 =0.267) and approach 1(MODIS based LST with no optimization) (R2 =0.163). Similarly, during the validation a highest performance is reported by approach 4. The other approaches are also following a similar trend as calibration. All the performances are depicted through Taylor diagram which indicates that the H polarisation using ECMWF based LST is giving a better performance for SMD estimation than the original SMOS L2 products at a catchment scale.