4 resultados para Hansen, Lars

em CUNY Academic Works


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Carpentry students from the New York Trade School at work during a class. Black and white photograph.

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A group of administrators from the New York Trade School pose at the 1959 commencement ceremony held May 19, 1959. Original caption: "Front: (left to right) Wm. F. Vanderbeek - Kenneth Schweiger - Bernard Rosenstadt - Ralph D. Cole - George E. McLaughlin - Herbert Brod - Edward Hansen. Back: (left to right) James Wright - Lawrence Levenstein - Ronald B. Smith - Roy Wall."

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Vol. 7; Sept. 1988; 109 p. b&w, color photographs TOC: Life at LaGuardia…2 / Activities and Events…17 / Faculty and Staff…33 / Activities at LaGuardia…49 / Graduation…71 Yearbook Committee Credits: Faculty Advisor, Vincent Banrey; Project Director, Catherine Whan; Editors: Alexandra Gomez, Juan Jimenez, GloryAnn Torres; Asst. Editor, Kenny Rosa; LAYOUT: Vincent Banrey, Marino "Tito" Cabrera, Shirley Chance, George Condors, Milton Ferreira, Maria Flores, Alexandra Gomez, Ana Lisa Gonzalez, Bernadette Henry, Juan Jimenez, Alejandro Meneses, Richard Provost, Kenny Rosa, Maria Sanchez, GloryAnn Torres, Catherine Whan, Alan O. Young; PHOTOGRAPHY: Peter Abbate, Sandra Acres, Young Baek Choi, Randy Fader Smith, Milton Ferriera, Alexandra Gomez, Juan Jimenez, Seymour Lerman, Chuck Lindsey, Victoria Pamias, Richard Provost, Alan Scribner, Frank Tocco, GloryAnn Torres, Catherine Whan. ART: Jose Marti (Cover Design and Division Pages); Martin Carrichner, Jose Marti (Endsheet Design), Arnold Escalera, Jacqui Fernandez, Richard Massey, Alejandro Meneses; WRITING: Anthony Archer, Alexandra Bastidas, Joie Fadde, Alexandra Gomez, Ana Lisa Gonzalez, Doreen Hansen, Bernadette Henry, Sarah Hudson, Juan Jimenez, Donna Libert, Cathy Passiglia, Jody Pincus, Richard Provost, Kenny Rosa, Maria Sanchez, Alan Scribner, Christiana Sommerville, GloryAnn Torres, Catherine Whan, Alan O. Young; SPECIAL THANKS: Blanca Arbito, Classic Studios, Edward Hollins, Umoja Kwanguvu, Kelly Johnson and the LaGuardia Archives, Andrew Saluga and Recreation Staff, Ted Schiffman of Taylor Publishing.

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Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.