Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The systolic array genetic algorithm, an example of systolic arrays as a reconfigurable design methodology

We advocate the use of systolic design techniques to create custom hardware for Custom Computing Machines. We have developed a hardware genetic algorithm based on systolic arrays to illustrate the feasibility of the approach. The architecture is independent of the lengths of chromosomes used and can be scaled in size to accommodate different population sizes. An FPGA prototype design can process 16 million genes per second.

The use of a multiple criteria decision analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of landscape and habitat enhancement mechanisms: an example from the South Downs

A range of funding schemes and policy instruments exist to effect enhancement of the landscapes and habitats of the UK. While a number of assessments of these mechanisms have been conducted, little research has been undertaken to compare both quantitatively and qualitatively their relative effectiveness across a range of criteria. It is argued that few tools are available for such a multi-faceted evaluation of effectiveness. A form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is justified and utilized as a framework in which to evaluate the effectiveness of nine mechanisms in relation to the protection of existing areas of chalk grassland and the creation of new areas in the South Downs of England. These include established schemes, such as the Countryside Stewardship and Environmentally Sensitive Area Schemes, along with other less common mechanisms, for example, land purchase and tender schemes. The steps involved in applying an MCDA to evaluate such mechanisms are identified and the process is described. Quantitative results from the comparison of the effectiveness of different mechanisms are presented, although the broader aim of the paper is that of demonstrating the performance of MCDA as a tool for measuring the effectiveness of mechanisms aimed at landscape and habitat enhancement.

Measuring the functional responses of farmland birds: an example for a declining seed-feeding bunting

1. Many farmland bird species have undergone significant declines. It is important to predict the effect of agricultural change on these birds and their response to conservation measures. This requirement could be met by mechanistic models that predict population size from the optimal foraging behaviour and fates of individuals within populations. A key component of these models is the functional response, the relationship between food and competitor density and feeding rate. 2. This paper describes a method for measuring functional responses of farmland birds, and applies this method to a declining farmland bird, the corn bunting Miliaria calandra L. We derive five alternative models to predict the functional responses of farmland birds and parameterize these for corn bunting. We also assess the minimum sample sizes required to predict accurately the functional response. 3. We show that the functional response of corn bunting can be predicted accurately from a few behavioural parameters (searching rate, handling time, vigilance time) that are straightforward to measure in the field. These parameters can be measured more quickly than the alternative of measuring the functional response directly. 4. While corn bunting violated some of the assumptions of Holling's disk equation (model 1 in our study), it still provided the most accurate fit to the observed feeding rates while remaining the most statistically simple model tested. Our other models may be more applicable to other species, or corn bunting feeding in other locations. 5. Although further tests are required, our study shows how functional responses can be predicted, simplifying the development of mechanistic models of farmland bird populations.

A critical assessment of a desk study comparing crop production systems: The example of the 'system of rice intensification' versus 'best management practice'

When assessing hypotheses, the possibility and consequences of false-positive conclusions should be considered along with the avoidance of false-negative ones. A recent assessment of the system of rice intensification (SRI) by McDonald et al. [McDonald, A.J., Hobbs, P.R., Riha, S.J., 2006. Does the system of rice intensification outperform conventional best management? A synopsis of the empirical record. Field Crops Res. 96, 31-36] provides a good example where this was not done as it was preoccupied with avoiding false-positives only. It concluded, based on a desk study using secondary data assembled selectively from diverse sources and with a 95% level of confidence, that 'best management practices' (BMPs) on average produce 11% higher rice yields than SRI methods, and that, therefore, SRI has little to offer beyond what is already known by scientists.

Rare and fleeting: an example of interspecific recombination in animal mitochondrial DNA

Recombination is thought to occur only rarely in animal mitochondrial DNA ( mtDNA). However, detection of mtDNA recombination requires that cells become heteroplasmic through mutation, intramolecular recombination or ' leakage' of paternal mtDNA. Interspecific hybridization increases the probability of detecting mtDNA recombinants due to higher levels of sequence divergence and potentially higher levels of paternal leakage. During a study of historical variation in Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar) mtDNA, an individual with a recombinant haplotype containing sequence from both Atlantic salmon and brown trout ( Salmo trutta) was detected. The individual was not an F1 hybrid but it did have an unusual nuclear genotype which suggested that it was a later-generation backcross. No other similar recombinant haplotype was found from the same population or three neighbouring Atlantic salmon populations in 717 individuals collected during 1948 - 2002. Interspecific recombination may increase mtDNA variability within species and can have implications for phylogenetic studies.

Multiple domestications and their taxonomic consequences: the example of Phaseolus vulgaris

The evolutionary history of P. vulgaris is important to those working on its genetic resources, but is not reflected in its infraspecific taxonomy. Genetic isolation of wild populations between and also within Middle and South America has resulted in morphological and molecular differentiation. Populations from northern and southern ends of the range are assigned to different gene pools, though intermediates occur in intervening areas. Chloroplast haplotypes suggest three distinct lineages of wild beans and several intercontinental dispersals. The species was domesticated independently in both Middle and South America, probably several times in Middle America. This, together with further differentiation under human selection, has produced distinct races among domesticated beans. The informal categories of wild versus domesticated, gene pool, and race convey the evolutionary picture more clearly than the formal categories provided by the Codes of Nomenclature for wild or cultivated plants.

6,6 '-bis-(5,6-diethyl-[1,2,4]triazin-3-yl)-2,2 '-bipyridyl the first example of a new class of quadridentate hetercyclic extraction reagents for the separation of americium(III) and europium(III)

The synthesis of the first example of a new class of tetradentate reagents for the efficient separation of americium(Ill) and europium(111) is reported together with the structure of the complex formed with europium(III), (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

(Ni-2), (Ni-3), and (Ni-2 + Ni-3): A Unique Example of Isolated and Cocrystallized Ni-2 and Ni-3 Complexes

Structural and magnetic characterization of compound {[Ni-2(L)(2)(OAC)(2)][Ni-3(L)(2) (OAc)(4)]) center dot 2CH(3)CN (3) (HL = the tridentate Schiff base ligand, 2-[(3-methylaminb-propylimino)-methyl]-phenol) shows that it is a rare example of a crystal incorporating a dinuclear Ni(II) compound, [Ni-2(L)(2)(OAc)(2)], and a trinuclear one, [Ni-3(L)(2)(OAC)(4)]. Even more unusual is the fact that both Ni (II) complexes, [Ni-2(L)(2)(OAc)(2)] (1) and [Ni-3(L)(2)(OAc)(4)(H2O)(2)] center dot CH2Cl2 center dot 2CH(3)OH (2), have also been isolated and structurally and magnetically characterized. The structural analysis reveals that the dimeric complexes [Ni-2(L)(2)(OAc)(2)] in cocrystal 3 and in compound 1 are almost identical-in both complexes, the Ni(II) ions possess a distorted octahedral geometry formed by the chelating tridentate ligand (L), a chelating acetate ion, and a bridging phenoxo group with very similar bond angles and distances. On the other hand, compound 2 and the trinuclear complex in the cocrystal 3 show a similar linear centrosymmetric structure with the tridentate ligand coordinated to the terminal Ni(II) and linked to the central Ni(II) by phenoxo and carboxylate bridges. The only difference is that a water molecule found in 2 is not present in the trinuclear unit of complex 3; instead, the coordination sphere is completed by an additional bridging oxygen atom from an acetate ligand. Variable-temperature (2-300 K) magnetic susceptibility measurements show that the dinuclear unit is antiferromagnetically coupled in both compounds (2J = -36.18 and -29.5 cm(-1) in 1 and 3, respectively), whereas the trinuclear unit shows a very weak ferromagnetic coupling in compound 3 (2J = 0.23 cm(-1)) and a weak antiferromagnetic coupling in 2 (2J = -8.7(2) cm(-1)) due to the minor changes in the coordination sphere.

Language transmission in the family in Wales: an example of innovative language planning.

This paper examines the achievements to date of Twf (“Growth”) — a project initiated as part of language planning efforts in Wales to encourage families to bring up their children to be bilingual. Evidence is presented of the ways in which the project has succeeded in raising awareness of the advantages of bilingualism amongst parents, prospective parents and the public at large by working strategically with health professionals and Early Years organizations, and by developing a range of highly innovative promotional materials. Given the central importance of the family as a site of intergenerational language transmission, the achievements of this project are likely to be of interest to those concerned with language planning in other minority communities in many other parts of the world. The lessons for language planning both in Wales and in other settings are discussed.