Can we predict when “dying” will be difficult?: Progressive achievements in L2 English

A large body of research has focused on the observation that second language (L2) learners are limited in their production of temporal and aspectual forms. For example, in L2 English, it has been shown learners use progressive marking with activity verbs and only rarely extend the form to telic verb phrases such as accomplishments or achievements (Bardovi-Harlig and Reynolds, 1995; Bardovi-Harlig, 2000; Robison, 1995). Shirai and Andersen (1995) proposed that activities represent the prototype for the category of progressive aspect and learners generally acquire the prototype first. However, very little research has focused explicitly on advanced learners to see if they eventually extend beyond the prototype. In addition, properties of the native language have not systematically been taken into account. Achievements such as "die" are especially interesting in that they interact differently with markers of progressive aspect across languages. The present study investigated the acquisition of progressive achievements in English by native speakers of Chinese and Korean in order to examine whether there is evidence of universal difficulty, as would be predicted by the prototype account, or whether similarity between the L1 and L2 (as in the case of English and Korean) can facilitate acquisition, as would be predicted by transfer. Our results suggest that the properties of the native language play an important role, supporting the transfer account. However, neither L1 group performs at the level of native speakers. We argue that the acquisition of aspect is influenced by both the properties of the native language and the semantic and pragmatic complexity of the target computation.

Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels

Climate change projections are usually presented as 'snapshots' of change at a particular time in the future. Instead, we consider the key question 'when will specific temperature thresholds will be exceeded?'. Framing the question as "when might something happen (either permanently or temporarily)?" rather than "what might happen?" demonstrates that lowering future emissions will delay the crossing of temperature thresholds and buy valuable time for planning adaptation. For example, in higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, a global average 2°C warming threshold is likely to be crossed by 2060, whereas in a lower emissions scenario, the crossing of this threshold is delayed up to several decades. On regional scales, however, the 2°C threshold will probably be exceeded over large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada by 2040 if emissions continue to increase- well within the lifetime of many people living now.

Population genetic models can be used to study the evolution of the interacting behaviours of parents and their progeny

An example of the evolution of the interacting behaviours of parents and progeny is studied using iterative equations linking the frequencies of the gametes produced by the progeny to the frequencies of the gametes in the parental generation. This population genetics approach shows that a model in which both behaviours are determined by a single locus can lead to a stable equilibrium in which the two behaviours continue to segregate. A model in which the behaviours are determined by genes at two separate loci leads eventually to fixation of the alleles at both loci but this can take many generations of selection. Models of the type described in this paper will be needed to understand the evolution of complex behaviour when genomic or experimental information is available about the genetic determinants of behaviour and the selective values of different genomes. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

When school is not enough: new initiatives in intergenerational language transmission in Wales

This paper examines language reproduction in the family in the context of a highly innovative project in Wales, where the Welsh language has been in decline for over a century. Although Welsh-medium schooling has played a pivotal role in slowing and even reversing language shift in recent decades, there is mounting evidence of the dangers of over-reliance on education. The Twf (Growth) Project was established in 2002 with funding from the National Assembly for Wales with the aim of raising awareness of the benefits of bilingualism among parents and prospective parents. Analysis of interviews with the main stakeholders in the project (managers, the Twf project officers, parents, health workers and a range of other partners), publicity materials and observations of project staff at work suggests that the achievements of the project lie in two main areas: the recognition of the need for building strong alliances with professional groups and organisations that work with families with young children; and the development of a marketing strategy appropriate for the target audience. It is argued that the experience of the project will be of interest to those addressing the issue of intergenerational transmission in a range of other minority language settings.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.

Europe’s biocidal products directive: benefits and costs in urban pest management

The European Commission’s Biocidal Products Directive (Council Directive 98/8 EC), known as the BPD, is the largest regulatory exercise ever to affect the urban pest control industry. Although focussed in the European Union its impact is global because any company selling pest control products in the EU must follow its principles. All active substances, belonging to 23 different biocidal product types, come within the Directive’s scope of regulatory control. This will eventually involve re-registration of all existing products, as well as affecting any new product that comes to the market. Some active substances, such as the rodenticides and insecticides, are already highly regulated in Europe but others, such as embalming fluids, masonry preservatives, disinfectants and repellents/attractants will come under intensive regulatory scrutiny for the first time. One of the purposes of the Directive is to offer enhanced protection for human health and the environment. The potential benefit for suppliers of pest control products is mutual recognition of regulatory product dossiers across 25 Member States of the European Union. This process, requiring harmonisation of all regulatory decision-making processes, should reduce duplicated effort and, potentially, allow manufacturers speedier access to European markets. However, the cost to industry is enormous, both in terms of the regulatory resources required to assemble BPD dossiers and the development budgets required to conduct studies to meet its new standards. The cost to regulatory authorities is also tremendous, in terms of the need to upgrade staff capabilities to meet new challenges and the volume of the work expected by the Commission when they are appointed the Rapporteur Member State (RMS) for an active substance. Users of pest control products will pay a price too. The increased regulatory costs of maintaining products in the European market are likely to be passed on, at least in part, to users. Furthermore, where the costs of meeting new regulatory requirements cannot be recouped from product sales, many well-known products may leave the market. For example, it seems that in future few rodenticides that are not anticoagulants will be available within the EU. An understanding of the BPD is essential to those who intend to place urban pest control products on the European market and may be useful to those considering the harmonisation of regulatory processes elsewhere. This paper reviews the operation of the first stages of the BPD for rodenticides, examines the potential benefits and costs of the legislation to the urban pest control industry and looks forward to the next stages of implementation involving all insecticides used in urban pest management.

What people study when they study Twitter: classifying Twitter related academic papers

PURPOSE: Since its introduction in 2006, messages posted to the microblogging system Twitter have provided a rich dataset for researchers, leading to the publication of over a thousand academic papers. This paper aims to identify this published work and to classify it in order to understand Twitter based research. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Firstly the papers on Twitter were identified. Secondly, following a review of the literature, a classification of the dimensions of microblogging research was established. Thirdly, papers were qualitatively classified using open coded content analysis, based on the paper’s title and abstract, in order to analyze method, subject, and approach. FINDINGS: The majority of published work relating to Twitter concentrates on aspects of the messages sent and details of the users. A variety of methodological approaches are used across a range of identified domains. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: This work reviewed the abstracts of all papers available via database search on the term “Twitter” and this has two major implications: 1) the full papers are not considered and so works may be misclassified if their abstract is not clear, 2) publications not indexed by the databases, such as book chapters, are not included. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To date there has not been an overarching study to look at the methods and purpose of those using Twitter as a research subject. Our major contribution is to scope out papers published on Twitter until the close of 2011. The classification derived here will provide a framework within which researchers studying Twitter related topics will be able to position and ground their work