Predictive vegetation mapping in the Mediterranean context: Considerations and methodological issues

The need to map vegetation communities over large areas for nature conservation and to predict the impact of environmental change on vegetation distributions, has stimulated the development of techniques for predictive vegetation mapping. Predictive vegetation studies start with the development of a model relating vegetation units and mapped physical data, followed by the application of that model to a geographic database and over a wide range of spatial scales. This field is particularly important for identifying sites for rare and endangered species and locations of high biodiversity such as many areas of the Mediterranean Basin. The potential of the approach is illustrated with a mapping exercise in the alti-meditterranean zone of Lefka Ori in Crete. The study established the nature of the relationship between vegetation communities and physical data including altitude, slope and geomorphology. In this way the knowledge of community distribution was improved enabling a GIS-based model capable of predicting community distribution to be constructed. The paper describes the development of the spatial model and the methodological problems of predictive mapping for monitoring Mediterranean ecosystems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of predictive vegetation mapping and other spatial techniques, such as fuzzy mapping and geostatistics, for improving our understanding of the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

A GIS-based empirical model for vegetation prediction in Lefka Ori, Crete

The aim of the study was to establish and verify a predictive vegetation model for plant community distribution in the alti-Mediterranean zone of the Lefka Ori massif, western Crete. Based on previous work three variables were identified as significant determinants of plant community distribution, namely altitude, slope angle and geomorphic landform. The response of four community types against these variables was tested using classification trees analysis in order to model community type occurrence. V-fold cross-validation plots were used to determine the length of the best fitting tree. The final 9node tree selected, classified correctly 92.5% of the samples. The results were used to provide decision rules for the construction of a spatial model for each community type. The model was implemented within a Geographical Information System (GIS) to predict the distribution of each community type in the study site. The evaluation of the model in the field using an error matrix gave an overall accuracy of 71%. The user's accuracy was higher for the Crepis-Cirsium (100%) and Telephium-Herniaria community type (66.7%) and relatively lower for the Peucedanum-Alyssum and Dianthus-Lomelosia community types (63.2% and 62.5%, respectively). Misclassification and field validation points to the need for improved geomorphological mapping and suggests the presence of transitional communities between existing community types.

LiDAR mapping of tidal marshes for ecogeomorphological modelling in the TIDE project

The European research project TIDE (Tidal Inlets Dynamics and Environment) is developing and validating coupled models describing the morphological, biological and ecological evolution of tidal environments. The interactions between the physical and biological processes occurring in these regions requires that the system be studied as a whole rather than as separate parts. Extensive use of remote sensing including LiDAR is being made to provide validation data for the modelling. This paper describes the different uses of LiDAR within the project and their relevance to the TIDE science objectives. LiDAR data have been acquired from three different environments, the Venice Lagoon in Italy, Morecambe Bay in England, and the Eden estuary in Scotland. LiDAR accuracy at each site has been evaluated using ground reference data acquired with differential GPS. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract tidal channel networks from LiDAR data either used alone or fused with aerial photography. While the resulting networks may require some correction, the procedure does allow network extraction over large areas using objective criteria and reduces fieldwork requirements. The networks extracted may subsequently be used in geomorphological analyses, for example to describe the drainage patterns induced by networks and to examine the rate of change of networks. Estimation of the heights of the low and sparse vegetation on marshes is being investigated by analysis of the statistical distribution of the measured LiDAR heights. Species having different mean heights may be separated using the first-order moments of the height distribution.

A GIS-based empirical model for vegetation prediction in Lefka Ori, Crete

The aim of the study was to establish and verify a predictive vegetation model for plant community distribution in the alti-Mediterranean zone of the Lefka Ori massif, western Crete. Based on previous work three variables were identified as significant determinants of plant community distribution, namely altitude, slope angle and geomorphic landform. The response of four community types against these variables was tested using classification trees analysis in order to model community type occurrence. V-fold cross-validation plots were used to determine the length of the best fitting tree. The final 9node tree selected, classified correctly 92.5% of the samples. The results were used to provide decision rules for the construction of a spatial model for each community type. The model was implemented within a Geographical Information System (GIS) to predict the distribution of each community type in the study site. The evaluation of the model in the field using an error matrix gave an overall accuracy of 71%. The user's accuracy was higher for the Crepis-Cirsium (100%) and Telephium-Herniaria community type (66.7%) and relatively lower for the Peucedanum-Alyssum and Dianthus-Lomelosia community types (63.2% and 62.5%, respectively). Misclassification and field validation points to the need for improved geomorphological mapping and suggests the presence of transitional communities between existing community types.

Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: results from a model study

[1] We present a model of the dust cycle that successfully predicts dust emissions as determined by land surface properties, monthly vegetation and snow cover, and 6-hourly surface wind speeds for the years 1982–1993. The model takes account of the role of dry lake beds as preferential source areas for dust emission. The occurrence of these preferential sources is determined by a water routing and storage model. The dust source scheme also explicitly takes into account the role of vegetation type as well as monthly vegetation cover. Dust transport is computed using assimilated winds for the years 1987–1990. Deposition of dust occurs through dry and wet deposition, where subcloud scavenging is calculated using assimilated precipitation fields. Comparison of simulated patterns of atmospheric dust loading with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite absorbing aerosol index shows that the model produces realistic results from daily to interannual timescales. The magnitude of dust deposition agrees well with sediment flux data from marine sites. Emission of submicron dust from preferential source areas are required for the computation of a realistic dust optical thickness. Sensitivity studies show that Asian dust source strengths are particularly sensitive to the seasonality of vegetation cover.

Operational active fire mapping and burnt area identification applicable to Mexican Nature Protection Areas using MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR direct readout data

Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

Why we need new spectacles: Mapping the experiential dimension in prehistoric Cretan landscapes

The Bronze to Iron Age transition in Crete, a period of state collapse and insecurity, saw the island's rugged, high-contrast topography used in striking new ways. The visual drama of many of the new site locations has stimulated significant research over the last hundred years, with explanation of the change as the main focus. The new sites are not monumental in character: the vast majority are settlements, and much of the information about them comes from survey. Perhaps as a result, the new site map has not been much studied from phenomenological perspectives. A focus on the visual and experiential aspects of the new landscape can offer valuable insights into social structures at this period, and illuminate social developments prefiguring the emergence of polis states in Crete by c. 700 BC. To develop, share and evaluate this type of integrated study, digital reconstructive techniques are still under-used in this region. I highlight their potential value in addressing a regularly-identified shortcoming of phenomenological approaches-their necessarily subjective emphasis.

Geochemical mapping of carbonate sediments in the Makgadikgadi basin, Botswana using moderate resolution remote sensing data

This paper maps the carbonate geochemistry of the Makgadikgadi Pans region of northern Botswana from moderate resolution (500 m pixels) remotely sensed data, to assess the impact of various geomorphological processes on surficial carbonate distribution. Previous palaeo-environmental studies have demonstrated that the pans have experienced several highstands during the Quaternary, forming calcretes around shoreline embayments. The pans are also a significant regional source of dust, and some workers have suggested that surficial carbonate distributions may be controlled, in part, by wind regime. Field studies of carbonate deposits in the region have also highlighted the importance of fluvial and groundwater processes in calcrete formation. However, due to the large area involved and problems of accessibility, the carbonate distribution across the entire Makgadikgadi basin remains poorly understood. The MODIS instrument permits mapping of carbonate distribution over large areas; comparison with estimates from Landsat Thematic Mapper data show reasonable agreement, and there is good agreement with estimates from laboratory analysis of field samples. The results suggest that palaeo-lake highstands, reconstructed here using the SRTM 3 arc-second digital elevation model, have left behind surficial carbonate deposits, which can be mapped by the MODIS instrument. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution and mobility of trace elements in soils and vegetation around the mining and smelting areas of Tharsis, Riotinto and Huelva, Iberian Pyrite Belt, SW Spain

Trace elements may present an environmental hazard in the vicinity of mining and smelting activities. However, the factors controlling their distribution and transfer within the soil and vegetation systems are not always well defined. Total concentrations of up to 15,195 mg center dot kg (-1) As, 6,690 mg center dot kg(-1) Cu, 24,820 mg center dot kg(-1) Pb and 9,810 mg center dot kg(-1) Zn in soils, and 62 mg center dot kg(-1) As, 1,765 mg center dot kg(-1) Cu, 280 mg center dot kg(-1) Pb and 3,460 mg center dot kg (-1) Zn in vegetation were measured. However, unusually for smelters and mines of a similar size, the elevated trace element concentrations in soils were found to be restricted to the immediate vicinity of the mines and smelters (maximum 2-3 km). Parent material, prevailing wind direction, and soil physical and chemical characteristics were found to correlate poorly with the restricted trace element distributions in soils. Hypotheses are given for this unusual distribution: (1) the contaminated soils were removed by erosion or (2) mines and smelters released large heavy particles that could not have been transported long distances. Analyses of the accumulation of trace elements in vegetation (median ratios: As 0.06, Cu 0.19, Pb 0.54 and Zn 1.07) and the percentage of total trace elements being DTPA extractable in soils (median percentages: As 0.06%, Cu 15%, Pb 7% and Zn 4%) indicated higher relative trace element mobility in soils with low total concentrations than in soils with elevated concentrations.

A preliminary investigation into mining and smelting impacts on trace element concentrations in the soils and vegetation around Tharsis, SW Spain

Toxic trace elements present an environmental hazard in the vicinity of mining and smelting activities. However. the processes of transfer of these elements to groundwater and to plants are not always clear. Tharsis mine. in the Iberian pyrite belt (SW Spain), has been exploited since 2500 BC, with extensive smelting, taking place front the 1850S until the 1920s. Sixty four soil (mainly topsoils) and vegetation samples were collected in February 2001 and analysed by ICP-AES for 23 elements. Concentrations are 6-6300 mg kg(-1) As and 14-24800 mg kg(-1) Pb in soils, and 0.20-9 mg kg(-1) As and 2-195 mg Pb in vegetation. Trace element concentrations decrease rapidly away from the mine. with As and Pb concentrations in the range 6-1850 mg kg(-1) (median 22 mg kg(-1)) and 14-31 mg, kg(-1) (median 43 mg, kg(-1)), respectively, 1 km away from the mine. These concentrations are low when compared to other well-studied mining and smelting areas (e.g. 600 mg kg(-1) As at 8 km from Yellowknife smelter, Canada; >100 mg kg(-1) Pb over 270 km(2) around the Pb-Zn Port Pirie smelter. South Australia: mean of 1419 mg kg(-1) Pb around Aberystwyth smelter, Wales, UK). The high metal content of the vegetation and the low soil pH (mean pH 4.93) indicate the potential for trace element mobility which Could explain the relatively low concentration of metals in Tharsis topsoils and cause threats to plans to redevelop the Tharsis area as an orange plantation.

A semi-quantitative approach to deriving a model structure for the uptake of organic chemicals by vegetation

An expert elicitation exercise was undertaken to determine those components and processes that are most important for modeling plant uptake of organic chemicals. The state of our knowledge of these processes was also assessed. This semi-quantitative analysis allowed the construction of an idealized model with seven compartments; soil bulk, soil water, roots, stem, leaves, fruit, and air. Three main areas were identified further research: 1) the uptake of organic chemicals by fruit; 2) the internal transfer of organic chemicals between plant structures (e.g., stem and leaves); and 3) the transfer via the soil-air-plant pathway. Until new data becomes available to quantify these processes, it is proposed that an equilibrium partitioning approach is used between plant components other than fruit or that models consist of both an edible and inedible compartment.

Vegetation development and human occupation in the Damascus region of southwestern Syria from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene

Rockshelter Baaz in the Damascus region of Syria provided a variety of botanical remains from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene period. These remains provide new information about the vegetation evolution in this region. The earliest occupational levels correspond with a moisture peak during the Late Pleistocene, between ca. 34-32 kyr b.p., when pine expanded. The next occupations took place during extreme arid conditions, ca. 23-21 kyr b.p., and probably during the Last Glacial Maximum when a steppe vegetation was established. The occupation level of the Younger Dryas, represented by Natufian remains, suggests that the area had been covered by almond-pistachio steppe, similar to later periods of the Early Holocene, and was probably located just outside the range of dense wild cereal stands. There is no drastic impact of the Younger Dryas visible on the vegetation in the botanical remains. The lack of fruits and seeds at Baaz indicates that the site was more likely to have been a temporary hunting post rather than a plant processing site for much of its history. It is ideally suited to this purpose because of its location over the Jaba'deen Pass and the associated springs. However, archaeological remains from the Natufian period, suggest that the site was more permanently occupied during this time.