Phyto-activity of biocides used to manipulate herbivory: tests of three pesticides on fourteen plant species

1. We tested three pesticides used for field manipulations of herbivory for direct phytoactive effects on the germination and growth of 14 herbaceous plant species selected to provide a range of life-history strategies and functional groups. 2. We report three companion experiments: (A) Two insecticides, chlorpyrifos (granular soil insecticide) and dimethoate (foliar spray), were applied in fully-factorial combination to pot-germinated individuals of 12 species. (B) The same fully-factorial design was used to test for direct effects on the germination of four herbaceous legumes. (C) The molluscicide, metaldehyde, was tested for direct effects on the germination and growth of six plant species. 3. The insecticides had few significant effects on growth and germination. Dimethoate acted only on growth stimulating Anisantha sterilis, Sonchus asper and Stellaria graminea. In contrast, chlorpyrifos acted on germination increasing the germination of Trifolium dubium and Trifolium pratense. There was also a significant interactive effect of chlorpyrifos and dimethoate on the germination of T pratense. However, all. effects were relatively small in magnitude and explanatory power. The molluscicide had no significant effect on plant germination or growth. 4. The small number and size of direct effects of the pesticides on plant performance is encouraging for the use of these pesticides in manipulative experiments on herbivory, especially for the molluscicide. However, a smatt number of direct (positive) effects of the insecticides on some plant species need to be taken into account when interpreting field manipulations of herbivory with these compounds, and emphasises the importance of conducting tests for direct phyto-active effects. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Tests of MULTIMODE calculations of rovibrational energies of CH4

We report variational calculations of rovibrational energies of CH4 using the code MULTIMODE and an ab initio force field of Schwenke and Partridge. The systematic convergence of the energies with respect to the level of mode coupling is presented. Converged vibrational energies calculated using the five-mode representation of the potential for zero total angular momentum are compared with previous, benchmark calculations based on Radau coordinates using this force field for zero total angular momentum and for J = 1. Very good agreement with the previous benchmark calculations is found. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tests of syntactic comprehension in aphasia: an investigation of task effects

Background: Consistency of performance across tasks that assess syntactic comprehension in aphasia has clinical and theoretical relevance. In this paper we add to the relatively sparse previous work on how sentence comprehension abilities are influenced by the nature of the assessment task. Aims: Our aims are: (1) to compare linguistic performance across sentence-picture matching, enactment, and truth-value judgement tasks; (2) to investigate the impact of pictorial stimuli on syntactic comprehension. Methods Procedures: We tested a group of 10 aphasic speakers (3 with fluent and 7 with non-fluent aphasia) in three tasks (Experiment 1): (i) sentence-picture matching with four pictures, (ii) sentence-picture matching with two pictures, and (iii) enactment. A further task of truth-value judgement was given to a subgroup of those speakers (n=5, Experiment 2). Similar sentence types across all tasks were used and included canonical (actives, subject clefts) and non-canonical (passives, object clefts) sentences. We undertook two types of analyses: (a) we compared canonical and non-canonical sentences in each task; (b) we compared performance between (i) actives and passives, (ii) subject and object clefts in each task. We examined the results of all participants as a group and as case-series. Outcomes Results: Several task effects emerged. Overall, the two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment tasks were more discriminating than the four-picture condition. Group performance in the truth-value judgement task was similar to two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment. At the individual level performance across tasks contrasted to some group results. Conclusions: Our findings revealed task effects across participants. We discuss reasons that could explain the diverse profiles of performance and the implications for clinical practice.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Tests of non-linearity using LIFFE futures transactions price data

This paper presents and implements a number of tests for non-linear dependence and a test for chaos using transactions prices on three LIFFE futures contracts: the Short Sterling interest rate contract, the Long Gilt government bond contract, and the FTSE 100 stock index futures contract. While previous studies of high frequency futures market data use only those transactions which involve a price change, we use all of the transaction prices on these contracts whether they involve a price change or not. Our results indicate irrefutable evidence of non-linearity in two of the three contracts, although we find no evidence of a chaotic process in any of the series. We are also able to provide some indications of the effect of the duration of the trading day on the degree of non-linearity of the underlying contract. The trading day for the Long Gilt contract was extended in August 1994, and prior to this date there is no evidence of any structure in the return series. However, after the extension of the trading day we do find evidence of a non-linear return structure.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation

We describe a new methodology for comparing satellite radiation budget data with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This is applied to data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on Meteosat-8. The methodology brings together, in near-real time, GERB broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes with simulations based on analyses produced by the Met Office global NWP model. Results for the period May 2003 to February 2005 illustrate the progressive improvements in the data products as various initial problems were resolved. In most areas the comparisons reveal systematic errors in the model's representation of surface properties and clouds, which are discussed elsewhere. However, for clear-sky regions over the oceans the model simulations are believed to be sufficiently accurate to allow the quality of the GERB fluxes themselves to be assessed and any changes in time of the performance of the instrument to be identified. Using model and radiosonde profiles of temperature and humidity as input to a single-column version of the model's radiation code, we conduct sensitivity experiments which provide estimates of the expected model errors over the ocean of about ±5–10 W m−2 in clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ±0.01 in clear-sky albedo. For the more recent data the differences between the observed and modeled OLR and albedo are well within these error estimates. The close agreement between the observed and modeled values, particularly for the most recent period, illustrates the value of the methodology. It also contributes to the validation of the GERB products and increases confidence in the quality of the data, prior to their release.

On the potential of assimilating meteorological analyses in a global climate model for the purpose of model validation

A simple four-dimensional assimilation technique, called Newtonian relaxation, has been applied to the Hamburg climate model (ECHAM), to enable comparison of model output with observations for short periods of time. The prognostic model variables vorticity, divergence, temperature, and surface pressure have been relaxed toward European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global meteorological analyses. Several experiments have been carried out, in which the values of the relaxation coefficients have been varied to find out which values are most usable for our purpose. To be able to use the method for validation of model physics or chemistry, good agreement of the model simulated mass and wind field is required. In addition, the model physics should not be disturbed too strongly by the relaxation forcing itself. Both aspects have been investigated. Good agreement with basic observed quantities, like wind, temperature, and pressure is obtained for most simulations in the extratropics. Derived variables, like precipitation and evaporation, have been compared with ECMWF forecasts and observations. Agreement for these variables is smaller than for the basic observed quantities. Nevertheless, considerable improvement is obtained relative to a control run without assimilation. Differences between tropics and extratropics are smaller than for the basic observed quantities. Results also show that precipitation and evaporation are affected by a sort of continuous spin-up which is introduced by the relaxation: the bias (ECMWF-ECHAM) is increasing with increasing relaxation forcing. In agreement with this result we found that with increasing relaxation forcing the vertical exchange of tracers by turbulent boundary layer mixing and, in a lesser extent, by convection, is reduced.

A universal agro-hydrological model for water and nitrogen cycles in the soil-crop system SMCR_N: critical update and further validation

Agro-hydrological models have widely been used for optimizing resources use and minimizing environmental consequences in agriculture. SMCRN is a recently developed sophisticated model which simulates crop response to nitrogen fertilizer for a wide range of crops, and the associated leaching of nitrate from arable soils. In this paper, we describe the improvements of this model by replacing the existing approximate hydrological cascade algorithm with a new simple and explicit algorithm for the basic soil water flow equation, which not only enhanced the model performance in hydrological simulation, but also was essential to extend the model application to the situations where the capillary flow is important. As a result, the updated SMCRN model could be used for more accurate study of water dynamics in the soil-crop system. The success of the model update was demonstrated by the simulated results that the updated model consistently out-performed the original model in drainage simulations and in predicting time course soil water content in different layers in the soil-wheat system. Tests of the updated SMCRN model against data from 4 field crop experiments showed that crop nitrogen offtakes and soil mineral nitrogen in the top 90 cm were in a good agreement with the measured values, indicating that the model could make more reliable predictions of nitrogen fate in the crop-soil system, and thus provides a useful platform to assess the impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on crop yield and nitrogen leaching from different production systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Aerosol optical depths over North Africa: 2. Modeling and model validation

An operational dust forecasting model is developed by including the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model dust parameterization scheme, within a Met Office regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model includes parameterizations for dust uplift, dust transport, and dust deposition in six discrete size bins and provides diagnostics such as the aerosol optical depth. The results are compared against surface and satellite remote sensing measurements and against in situ measurements from the Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements for a case study when a strong dust event was forecast. Comparisons are also performed against satellite and surface instrumentation for the entire month of August. The case study shows that this Saharan dust NWP model can provide very good guidance of dust events, as much as 42 h ahead. The analysis of monthly data suggests that the mean and variability in the dust model is also well represented.

Extraction of tidal channel networks from aerial photographs alone and combined with laser altimetry

Tidal channel networks play an important role in the intertidal zone, exerting substantial control over the hydrodynamics and sediment transport of the region and hence over the evolution of the salt marshes and tidal flats. The study of the morphodynamics of tidal channels is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories have been proposed which require for their validation measurement of channels over extensive areas. Remotely sensed data provide a suitable means for such channel mapping. The paper describes a technique that may be adapted to extract tidal channels from either aerial photographs or LiDAR data separately, or from both types of data used together in a fusion approach. Application of the technique to channel extraction from LiDAR data has been described previously. However, aerial photographs of intertidal zones are much more commonly available than LiDAR data, and most LiDAR flights now involve acquisition of multispectral images to complement the LiDAR data. In view of this, the paper investigates the use of multispectral data for semiautomatic identification of tidal channels, firstly from only aerial photographs or linescanner data, and secondly from fused linescanner and LiDAR data sets. A multi-level, knowledge-based approach is employed. The algorithm based on aerial photography can achieve a useful channel extraction, though may fail to detect some of the smaller channels, partly because the spectral response of parts of the non-channel areas may be similar to that of the channels. The algorithm for channel extraction from fused LiDAR and spectral data gives an increased accuracy, though only slightly higher than that obtained using LiDAR data alone. The results illustrate the difficulty of developing a fully automated method, and justify the semi-automatic approach adopted.

Independent evaluation of the ability of spaceborne radar and lidar to retrieve the microphysical and radiative properties of ice clouds

The combination of radar and lidar in space offers the unique potential to retrieve vertical profiles of ice water content and particle size globally, and two algorithms developed recently claim to have overcome the principal difficulty with this approach-that of correcting the lidar signal for extinction. In this paper "blind tests" of these algorithms are carried out, using realistic 94-GHz radar and 355-nm lidar backscatter profiles simulated from aircraft-measured size spectra, and including the effects of molecular scattering, multiple scattering, and instrument noise. Radiation calculations are performed on the true and retrieved microphysical profiles to estimate the accuracy with which radiative flux profiles could be inferred remotely. It is found that the visible extinction profile can be retrieved independent of assumptions on the nature of the size distribution, the habit of the particles, the mean extinction-to-backscatter ratio, or errors in instrument calibration. Local errors in retrieved extinction can occur in proportion to local fluctuations in the extinction-to-backscatter ratio, but down to 400 m above the height of the lowest lidar return, optical depth is typically retrieved to better than 0.2. Retrieval uncertainties are greater at the far end of the profile, and errors in total optical depth can exceed 1, which changes the shortwave radiative effect of the cloud by around 20%. Longwave fluxes are much less sensitive to errors in total optical depth, and may generally be calculated to better than 2 W m(-2) throughout the profile. It is important for retrieval algorithms to account for the effects of lidar multiple scattering, because if this is neglected, then optical depth is underestimated by approximately 35%, resulting in cloud radiative effects being underestimated by around 30% in the shortwave and 15% in the longwave. Unlike the extinction coefficient, the inferred ice water content and particle size can vary by 30%, depending on the assumed mass-size relationship (a problem common to all remote retrieval algorithms). However, radiative fluxes are almost completely determined by the extinction profile, and if this is correct, then errors in these other parameters have only a small effect in the shortwave (around 6%, compared to that of clear sky) and a negligible effect in the longwave.

Reduced height (Rht) and photoperiod insensitivity (Ppd) allele associations with establishment and early growth of wheat in contrasting production systems

Near isogenic lines (NILs) varying for genes for reduced height (Rht) and photoperiod insensitivity (Ppd-D1a) in a cv. Mercia background (rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht8c + Ppd-D1a, Rht-D1c, Rht12) were compared at one field site but within contrasting ('organic' vs. 'conventional') rotational and agronomic contexts, in each of 3 years. In the final year, further NILs (rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht-B1b + Rht-D1b, Rht-D1b + Rht-B1c) in both Maris Huntsman and Maris Widgeon backgrounds were added together with 64 lines of a doubled haploid (DH) population [Savannah (Rht-D1b) x Renesansa (Rht-8c + Ppd-D1a)]. Assessments included laboratory tests of germination and coleoptile length, and various field measurements of crop growth between emergence and pre jointing [plant population, tillering, leaf length, ground cover (GC), interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), crop dry matter (DM) and nitrogen accumulation (N), far red: red reflectance ratio (FR:R), crop height, and weed dry matter]. All of the dwarfing alleles except Rht12 in the Mercia background and Rht8c in the DHs were associated with reduced coleoptile length. Most of the dwarfing alleles (depending on background) reduced seed viability. Severe dwarfing alleles (Rht-B1c, Rht-D1c and Rht12) were routinely associated with fewer plant numbers and reduced early crop growth (GC, PAR, DM, N, FR:R), and in 1 year, increased weed DM. In the Mercia background and the DHs the semi-dwarfing allele Rht-D1b was also sometimes associated with reductions in early crop growth; no such negative effects were associated with the marker for Rht8c. When significant interactions between cropping system and genotype did occur it was because differences between lines were more exaggerated in the organic system than in the conventional system. Ppd-D1a was associated positively with plant numbers surviving the winter and early crop growth (GC, FR:R, DM, N, PAR, height), and was the most significant locus in a QTL analysis. We conclude that, within these environmental and system contexts, genes moderating development are likely to be more important in influencing early resource capture than using Rht8c as an alternative semi-dwarfing gene to Rht-D1b.