A probabilistic analysis of the future potential of evaporative cooling systems in a temperate climate

The probabilistic projections of climate change for the United Kingdom (UK Climate Impacts Programme) show a trend towards hotter and drier summers. This suggests an expected increase in cooling demand for buildings – a conflicting requirement to reducing building energy needs and related CO2 emissions. Though passive design is used to reduce thermal loads of a building, a supplementary cooling system is often necessary. For such mixed-mode strategies, indirect evaporative cooling is investigated as a low energy option in the context of a warmer and drier UK climate. Analysis of the climate projections shows an increase in wet-bulb depression; providing a good indication of the cooling potential of an evaporative cooler. Modelling a mixed-mode building at two different locations, showed such a building was capable of maintaining adequate thermal comfort in future probable climates. Comparing the control climate to the scenario climate, an increase in the median of evaporative cooling load is evident. The shift is greater for London than for Glasgow with a respective 71.6% and 3.3% increase in the median annual cooling load. The study shows evaporative cooling should continue to function as an effective low-energy cooling technique in future, warming climates.

Memento mori: the uses of the future imperative in the Carmina Latina Epigraphica

This paper offers an examination of the use(s) of the future imperative in the Latin verse inscriptions. Following introductory considerations about speech act theory, the use of directives, and politeness (with special emphasis on the Carmina Latina Epigraphica), the paper gives an overview of relevant instances. It presents an argument in favour of a (re-)interpretation of the Latin future imperative as a mode to express deontic and thetic arrangements with little immediacy. Additionally, it is possible to detect traces of a deliberate use of the future imperative as a means of marking linguistic register in contexts where it otherwise, if following a more traditional concept of the future imperative, would seem out of place

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Simulation of the future performance of low-energy evaporative cooling systems using UKCP09 climate projections

Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems. One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications. Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s.

Making it all work: the engineering graduate of the future, a UK perspective

High skills are today seen as being of vital importance to economies, industries, companies and individuals. The engineering industry is no exception and the graduate engineer has a key position in this regard. In the research reported in this paper, the authors use in-depth interviews with industry experts to investigate the provision of undergraduate engineering education in the UK. The current and future skill needs of industry are examined. A typology of future engineering roles and their requisite attributes is proposed. Implications for undergraduate engineering are also discussed.

Corporate real estate management in the retail sector: a study of the relationship between the management of the corporate real estate and corporate performance

Retail organisations have often been cited as being at the forefront of corporate real estate management. This research found that the retail sector can be characterised by diversity both in terms of the degree to which organisations are vertically integrated and in terms of the range of modes of retailing they engage in. This in turn led to highly diverse real estate portfolios. Given this diversity it may be surprising that the over riding strategy which the vast majority of sample firms adopted was focused on supporting the core retail activity. However the way in which they implement this strategy, again reflected the diversity in the sector. In terms of the future, the senior real estate managers were focusing on the medium term particularly looking at the way change would impact their functional strategy. This study provides a snap-shot of current practice and contributes to the debate however it also recognised that there is a need to answer the more fundamental questions.

The changing energy balance of the polar regions in a warmer climate

Energy fluxes for polar regions are examined for two 30-year periods, representing the end of the 20th and 21st centuries, using data from high resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 climate model. The net radiation to space for the present climate agrees well with data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) over the northern polar region but shows an underestimation in planetary albedo for the southern polar region. This suggests there are systematic errors in the atmospheric circulation or in the net surface energy fluxes in the southern polar region. The simulation of the future climate is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The total energy transport is broadly the same for the two 30 year periods, but there is an increase in the moist energy transport of the order of 6 W m−2 and a corresponding reduction in the dry static energy. For the southern polar region the proportion of moist energy transport is larger and the dry static energy correspondingly smaller for both periods. The results suggest a possible mechanism for the warming of the Arctic that is discussed. Changes between the 20th and 21st centuries in the northern polar region show the net ocean surface radiation flux in summer increases ~18W m−2 (24%). For the southern polar region the response is different as there is a decrease in surface solar radiation. We suggest that this is caused by changes in cloudiness associated with the poleward migration of the storm tracks.

Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

An Assessment of the Recent Past and Future Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Runoff in the Caucasus Region Using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling and HBV-ETH Hydrological Model

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt and runoff. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C a(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas providing for a strong glacier melt and continuous decline in glacier mass balance. A warming of 4-7 degrees C and 3-5 degrees C is projected for the summer months in 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios respectively, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt can be expected. The expected changes in winter precipitation will not compensate for the summer melt and glacier retreat is likely to continue. However, a projected small increase in both winter and summer precipitation combined with the enhanced glacier melt will result in increased summer runoff in the currently glaciated region of the Caucasus (independent of whether the region is glaciated at the end of the twenty-first century) by more than 50% compared with the baseline period.

Urban mammals: what does the future hold? An analysis of the factors affecting patterns of use of residential gardens in Great Britain

1Urban areas are predicted to grow significantly in the foreseeable future because of increasing human population growth. Predicting the impact of urban development and expansion on mammal populations is of considerable interest due to possible effects on biodiversity and human-wildlife conflict. 2The British government has recently announced a substantial housing programme to meet the demands of its growing population and changing socio-economic profile. This is likely to result in the construction of high-density, low-cost housing with small residential gardens. To assess the potential effects of this programme, we analysed the factors affecting the current pattern of use of residential gardens by a range of mammal species using a questionnaire distributed in wildlife and gardening magazines and via The Mammal Society. 3Twenty-two species/species groups were recorded. However, the pattern of garden use by individual species was limited, with only six species/species groups (bats, red fox Vulpes vulpes, grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis, hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus, mice, voles) recorded as frequent visitors to > 20% of gardens in the survey. 4There was a high degree of association between the variables recorded in the study, such that it was difficult to quantify the effects of individual variables. However, all species/species groups appeared to be negatively affected by the increased fragmentation and reduced proximity of natural and semi-natural habitats, decreasing garden size and garden structure, but to differing degrees. Patterns of garden use were most clearly affected by house location (city, town, village, rural), with garden use declining with increasing urbanization for the majority of species/species groups, except red foxes and grey squirrels. Increasing urbanization is likely to be related to a wide range of interrelated factors, any or all of which may affect a range of mammal species. 5Overall, the probable effects of the planned housing development programme in Britain are not likely to be beneficial to mammal populations, although the pattern of use examined in this study may represent patterns of habitat selection by species rather than differences in distribution or abundance. Consequently, additional data are required on the factors affecting the density of species within urban environments.

The future of floristics in the Mediterranean region

In this paper, I address the "wider issues Both That Affect Floristic studies today and how They Are Likely to Develop in the Future, And The Problems That special concern in the Mediterranean region particularism. A survey of published floristic studies is given for the Mediterranean and the Middle East, and the desirability of applying electronic web-based preparation and publication of floristic and taxonomic projects is considered, with special reference to the Euro + Med PlantBase project. A Survey of Published Studies Floristic IS Given for the Mediterranean and the Middle East, and the Desirability of Applying web-based electronic preparation and publication of Floristic and Taxonomic Project is regarded, with Special Reference To The Euro + Med project PlantBase. A new paradigm for taxonomy, and a plan of action for Mediterranean floristic studies are proposed. A New Paradigm for taxonomy, and a plan of action for Mediterranean Floristic studies are Proposed.

Exploring the role of design quality in the Building Schools for the Future programme

The Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme represents the biggest single UK government investment in school buildings for more than 50 years. A key goal for BSF is to ensure that pupils learn in 21st-century facilities that are designed or redesigned to allow for educational transformation. This represents a major challenge to those involved in the design of schools. The paper explores the conceptualizations of design quality within the BSF programme. It draws on content analysis of influential reports on design published between 2000 and 2007 and interviews with key actors in the provision of schools. The means by which design quality has become defined and given importance within the programme through official documents is described and compared with the multiple understandings of design quality among key stakeholders. The findings portray the many challenges that practitioners face when operationalizing design quality in practice. The paper concludes with reflections on the inconsistencies between how design quality has been appropriated in the BSF programme and how it is interpreted and adopted in practice.