Stratosphere-troposphere transport in a numerical simulation of midlatitude convection

The transport of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere via convection is investigated numerically using the UK Met Office Unified Model. A convective system that formed on 27 June 2004 near southeast England, in the vicinity an upper level potential vorticity anomaly and a lowered tropopause, provides the basis for analysis. Transport is diagnosed using a stratospheric tracer that can either be passed through or withheld from the model’s convective parameterization scheme. Three simulations are performed at increasingly finer resolutions, with horizontal grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km. In the 12 and 4 km simulations, tracer is transported deeply into the troposphere by the parameterized convection. In the 1 km simulation, for which the convective parameterization is disengaged, deep transport is still accomplished but with a much smaller magnitude. However, the 1 km simulation resolves stirring along the tropopause that does not exist in the coarser simulations. In all three simulations, the concentration of the deeply transported tracer is small, three orders of magnitude less than that of the shallow transport near the tropopause, most likely because of the efficient dilution of parcels in the lower troposphere.

Numerical simulation of tephra transport and deposition of the 1982 El Chichón eruption and implications for hazard assessment

El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550 years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.

Numerical simulation of baroclinic waves with a parameterized boundary layer

A dry three-dimensional baroclinic life cycle model is used to investigate the role of turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum within the boundary layer on mid-latitude cyclones. Simulations are performed of life cycles for two basic states, both with and without turbulent fluxes. The different basic states produce cyclones with contrasting frontal and mesoscale-flow structures. The analysis focuses on the generation of potential-vorticity (PV) in the boundary layer and its subsequent transport into the free troposphere. The dynamic mechanism through which friction mitigates a barotropic vortex is that of Ekman pumping. This has often been assumed to be also the dominant mechanism for baroclinic developments. The PV framework highlights an additional, baroclinic mechanism. Positive PV is generated baroclinically due to friction to the north-east of a surface low and is transported out of the boundary layer by a cyclonic conveyor belt flow. The result is an anomaly of increased static stability in the lower troposphere which restricts the growth of the baroclinic wave. The reduced coupling between lower and upper levels can be sufficient to change the character of the upper-level evolution of the mature wave. The basic features of the baroclinic damping mechanism are robust for different frontal structures, with and without turbulent heat fluxes, and for the range of surface roughness found over the oceans.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Condensation and moisture transport in cold roofs: effect of roof underlay

Cold pitched roofs, with their form of construction situating insulation on a horizontal ceiling, are intrinsically vulnerable to condensation. This study reports the results derived from using a simulation package (Heat, Air and Moisture modelling tool, or HAM-Tools) to investigate the risk of condensation in cold pitched roofs in housing fitted with a vapour-permeable underlay (VPU) of known characteristics. In order to visualize the effect of the VPUs on moisture transfer, several scenarios were modelled, and compared with the results from a conventional bituminous felt with high resistance (200 MNs/g, Sd = 40 m). The results indicate that ventilation is essential in the roof to reduce condensation. However, a sensitivity analysis proved that reducing the overall tightness of the ceiling and using lower-resistance VPUs would help in controlling condensation formation in the roof. To a large extent, the proposed characteristic performance of the VPU as predicted by manufacturers and some researchers may only be realistic if gaps in the ceiling are sealed completely during construction, which may be practically difficult given current construction practice.

A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems

The transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere within deep convection was investigated using the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1. Three cases were simulated in which convective systems formed over the UK in the summer of 2005. For each of these three cases, simulations were performed on a grid having 4 km horizontal grid spacing in which the convection was parameterized and on a grid having 1 km horizontal grid spacing, which permitted explicit representation of the largest energy-containing scales of deep convection. Cross-tropopause transport was diagnosed using passive tracers that were initialized above the dynamically defined tropopause (2 potential vorticity unit surface) with a mixing ratio of 1. Although the synoptic-scale environment and triggering mechanisms varied between the cases, the total simulated transport was similar in all three cases. The total stratosphere-to-troposphere transport over the lifetime of the convective systems ranged from 25 to 100 kg/m2 across the simulated convective systems and resolutions, which corresponds to ∼5–20% of the total mass located within a stratospheric column extending 2 km above the tropopause. In all simulations, the transport into the lower troposphere (defined as below 3.5 km elevation) accounted for ∼1% of the total transport across the tropopause. In the 4 km runs most of the transport was due to parameterized convection, whereas in the 1 km runs the transport was due to explicitly resolved convection. The largest difference between the simulations with different resolutions occurred in the one case of midlevel convection considered, in which the total transport in the 1 km grid spacing simulation with explicit convection was 4 times that in the 4 km grid spacing simulation with parameterized convection. Although the total cross-tropopause transport was similar, stratospheric tracer was deposited more deeply to near-surface elevations in the convection-parameterizing simulations than in convection-permitting simulations.

Simulation of a domestic ground source heat pump system using a three-dimensional numerical borehole heat exchanger model

Common approaches to the simulation of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) assume heat transfer in circulating fluid and grout to be in a quasi-steady state and ignore fluctuations in fluid temperature due to transport of the fluid around the loop. However, in domestic ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems, the heat pump and circulating pumps switch on and off during a given hour; therefore, the effect of the thermal mass of the circulating fluid and the dynamics of fluid transport through the loop has important implications for system design. This may also be important in commercial systems that are used intermittently. This article presents transient simulation of a domestic GSHP system with a single BHE using a dynamic three-dimensional (3D) numerical BHE model. The results show that delayed response associated with the transit of fluid along the pipe loop is of some significance in moderating swings in temperature during heat pump operation. In addition, when 3D effects are considered, a lower heat transfer rate is predicted during steady operations. These effects could be important when considering heat exchanger design and system control. The results will be used to develop refined two-dimensional models.

High resolution simulation of recent Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric chemical ozone loss compared to observations

Simulations of polar ozone losses were performed using the three-dimensional high-resolution (1∘ × 1∘) chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM. Three Arctic winters 1999–2000, 2001–2002, 2002–2003 and three Antarctic winters 2001, 2002, and 2003 were considered for the study. The cumulative ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2002–2003 reached around 35% at 475 K inside the vortex, as compared to more than 60% in 1999–2000. During 1999–2000, denitrification induces a maximum of about 23% extra ozone loss at 475 K as compared to 17% in 2002–2003. Unlike these two colder Arctic winters, the 2001–2002 Arctic was warmer and did not experience much ozone loss. Sensitivity tests showed that the chosen resolution of 1∘ × 1∘ provides a better evaluation of ozone loss at the edge of the polar vortex in high solar zenith angle conditions. The simulation results for ozone, ClO, HNO3, N2O, and NO y for winters 1999–2000 and 2002–2003 were compared with measurements on board ER-2 and Geophysica aircraft respectively. Sensitivity tests showed that increasing heating rates calculated by the model by 50% and doubling the PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds) particle density (from 5 × 10−3 to 10−2 cm−3) refines the agreement with in situ ozone, N2O and NO y levels. In this configuration, simulated ClO levels are increased and are in better agreement with observations in January but are overestimated by about 20% in March. The use of the Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections slightly increases further ClO levels especially in high solar zenith angle conditions. Comparisons of the modelled ozone values with ozonesonde measurement in the Antarctic winter 2003 and with Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III) measurements in the Antarctic winters 2001 and 2002, shows that the simulations underestimate the ozone loss rate at the end of the ozone destruction period. A slightly better agreement is obtained with the use of Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections.

Quantification of chemical and physical processes influencing ozone during long-range transport using a trajectory ensemble

During long-range transport, many distinct processes – including photochemistry, deposition, emissions and mixing – contribute to the transformation of air mass composition. Partitioning the effects of different processes can be useful when considering the sensitivity of chemical transformation to, for example, a changing environment or anthropogenic influence. However, transformation is not observed directly, since mixing ratios are measured, and models must be used to relate changes to processes. Here, four cases from the ITCT-Lagrangian 2004 experiment are studied. In each case, aircraft intercepted a distinct air mass several times during transport over the North Atlantic, providing a unique dataset and quantifying the net changes in composition from all processes. A new framework is presented to deconstruct the change in O3 mixing ratio (Δ O3) into its component processes, which were not measured directly, taking into account the uncertainty in measurements, initial air mass variability and its time evolution. The results show that the net chemical processing (Δ O3chem) over the whole simulation is greater than net physical processing (Δ O3phys) in all cases. This is in part explained by cancellation effects associated with mixing. In contrast, each case is in a regime of either net photochemical destruction (lower tropospheric transport) or production (an upper tropospheric biomass burning case). However, physical processes influence O3 indirectly through addition or removal of precursor gases, so that changes to physical parameters in a model can have a larger effect on Δ O3chem than Δ O3phys. Despite its smaller magnitude, the physical processing distinguishes the lower tropospheric export cases, since the net photochemical O3 change is −5 ppbv per day in all three cases. Processing is quantified using a Lagrangian photochemical model with a novel method for simulating mixing through an ensemble of trajectories and a background profile that evolves with them. The model is able to simulate the magnitude and variability of the observations (of O3, CO, NOy and some hydrocarbons) and is consistent with the time-average OH following air-masses inferred from hydrocarbon measurements alone (by Arnold et al., 2007). Therefore, it is a useful new method to simulate air mass evolution and variability, and its sensitivity to process parameters.

Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate.

Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM), and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied) in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results primarily from biases in the diabatic descent in assimilated analyses.

A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM

The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) is used in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21,000 years ago) climate. In the tropics, the simulation shows a moderate cooling of 3 °C over land and 2 °C in the ocean in zonal average. This cooling is about 1 °C cooler than the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but consistent with recent estimates of both land and sea surface temperature changes. Subtropical waters are cooled by 2–2.5 °C, also in agreement with recent estimates. The simulated oceanic thermohaline circulation at the LGM is not only shallower but also weaker than the modern with a migration of deep-water formation site in the North Atlantic as suggested by the paleoceanographic evidences. The simulated northward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is enhanced. These deep circulation changes are attributable to the increased surface density flux in the Southern Ocean caused by sea-ice expansion at the LGM. Both the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are intensified due to the overall increase of wind stress over the subtropical oceans. The intensified zonal wind stress and southward shift of its maximum in the Southern Ocean effectively enhances the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) by more than 50%. Simulated SSTs are lowered by up to 8 °C in the midlatitudes. Simulated conditions in the North Atlantic are warmer and with less sea-ice than indicated by CLIMAP again, in agreement with more recent estimates. The increased meridional SST gradient at the LGM results in an enhanced Hadley Circulation and increased midlatitude storm track precipitation. The increased baroclinic storm activity also intensifies the meridional atmospheric heat transport. A sensitivity experiment shows that about half of the simulated tropical cooling at the LGM originates from reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Reduced-order modeling of light transport in tissue for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics using diffuse optical tomography

This paper proposes a new reconstruction method for diffuse optical tomography using reduced-order models of light transport in tissue. The models, which directly map optical tissue parameters to optical flux measurements at the detector locations, are derived based on data generated by numerical simulation of a reference model. The reconstruction algorithm based on the reduced-order models is a few orders of magnitude faster than the one based on a finite element approximation on a fine mesh incorporating a priori anatomical information acquired by magnetic resonance imaging. We demonstrate the accuracy and speed of the approach using a phantom experiment and through numerical simulation of brain activation in a rat's head. The applicability of the approach for real-time monitoring of brain hemodynamics is demonstrated through a hypercapnic experiment. We show that our results agree with the expected physiological changes and with results of a similar experimental study. However, by using our approach, a three-dimensional tomographic reconstruction can be performed in ∼3  s per time point instead of the 1 to 2 h it takes when using the conventional finite element modeling approach

Simulation of tree-ring widths with a model for primary production, carbon allocation, and growth

We present a simple, generic model of annual tree growth, called "T". This model accepts input from a first-principles light-use efficiency model (the "P" model). The P model provides values for gross primary production (GPP) per unit of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Absorbed PAR is estimated from the current leaf area. GPP is allocated to foliage, transport tissue, and fine-root production and respiration in such a way as to satisfy well-understood dimensional and functional relationships. Our approach thereby integrates two modelling approaches separately developed in the global carbon-cycle and forest-science literature. The T model can represent both ontogenetic effects (the impact of ageing) and the effects of environmental variations and trends (climate and CO2) on growth. Driven by local climate records, the model was applied to simulate ring widths during the period 1958–2006 for multiple trees of Pinus koraiensis from the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China. Each tree was initialised at its actual diameter at the time when local climate records started. The model produces realistic simulations of the interannual variability in ring width for different age cohorts (young, mature, and old). Both the simulations and observations show a significant positive response of tree-ring width to growing-season total photosynthetically active radiation (PAR0) and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (α), and a significant negative response to mean annual temperature (MAT). The slopes of the simulated and observed relationships with PAR0 and α are similar; the negative response to MAT is underestimated by the model. Comparison of simulations with fixed and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration shows that CO2 fertilisation over the past 50 years is too small to be distinguished in the ring-width data, given ontogenetic trends and interannual variability in climate.