Subspace system identification framework for the analysis of multimoded propagation of THz-transient signals

We provide a system identification framework for the analysis of THz-transient data. The subspace identification algorithm for both deterministic and stochastic systems is used to model the time-domain responses of structures under broadband excitation. Structures with additional time delays can be modelled within the state-space framework using additional state variables. We compare the numerical stability of the commonly used least-squares ARX models to that of the subspace N4SID algorithm by using examples of fourth-order and eighth-order systems under pulse and chirp excitation conditions. These models correspond to structures having two and four modes simultaneously propagating respectively. We show that chirp excitation combined with the subspace identification algorithm can provide a better identification of the underlying mode dynamics than the ARX model does as the complexity of the system increases. The use of an identified state-space model for mode demixing, upon transformation to a decoupled realization form is illustrated. Applications of state-space models and the N4SID algorithm to THz transient spectroscopy as well as to optical systems are highlighted.

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer-than-present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation-forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion.

The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming

To examine the long-term stability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, idealized simulations are carried out with the climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased over 2000 years from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling, is then kept constant for 5940 years, is afterwards decreased over 2000 years to pre-industrial levels, and finally kept constant for 3940 years.Despite these very slow changes, the sea-ice response significantly lags behind the CO2 concentration change. This lag, which is caused by the ocean’s thermal inertia, implies that the sea-ice equilibrium response to increasing CO2 concentration is substantially underestimated by transient simulations. The sea-ice response to CO2 concentration change is not truly hysteretic and in principle reversible.We find no lag in the evolution of Arctic sea ice relative to changes in annual-mean northern-hemisphere surface temperature. The summer sea-ice cover changes linearly with respect to both CO2 concentration and temper...