Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model

There are now considerable expectations that semi-distributed models are useful tools for supporting catchment water quality management. However, insufficient attention has been given to evaluating the uncertainties inherent to this type of model, especially those associated with the spatial disaggregation of the catchment. The Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model (INCA) is subjected to an extensive regionalised sensitivity analysis in application to the River Kennet, part of the groundwater-dominated upper Thames catchment, UK The main results are: (1) model output was generally insensitive to land-phase parameters, very sensitive to groundwater parameters, including initial conditions, and significantly sensitive to in-river parameters; (2) INCA was able to produce good fits simultaneously to the available flow, nitrate and ammonium in-river data sets; (3) representing parameters as heterogeneous over the catchment (206 calibrated parameters) rather than homogeneous (24 calibrated parameters) produced a significant improvement in fit to nitrate but no significant improvement to flow and caused a deterioration in ammonium performance; (4) the analysis indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters (as opposed to calibrating all parameters together) was not a sensible strategy in this case; (5) even the parameters to which the model output was most sensitive suffered from high uncertainty due to spatial inconsistencies in the estimated optimum values, parameter equifinality and the sampling error associated with the calibration method; (6) soil and groundwater nutrient and flow data are needed to reduce. uncertainty in initial conditions, residence times and nitrogen transformation parameters, and long-term historic data are needed so that key responses to changes in land-use management can be assimilated. The results indicate the general, difficulty of reconciling the questions which catchment nutrient models are expected to answer with typically limited data sets and limited knowledge about suitable model structures. The results demonstrate the importance of analysing semi-distributed model uncertainties prior to model application, and illustrate the value and limitations of using Monte Carlo-based methods for doing so. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a unifying framework for pattern transformation in swarm systems

This paper identifies the major challenges in the area of pattern formation. The work is also motivated by the need for development of a single framework to surmount these challenges. A framework based on the control of macroscopic parameters is proposed. The issue of transformation of patterns is specifically considered. A definition for transformation and four special cases, namely elementary and geometrical transformations by repositioning all or some robots in the pattern are provided. Two feasible tools for pattern transformation namely, a macroscopic parameter method and a mathematical tool - Moebius transformation also known as the linear fractional transformation are introduced. The realization of the unifying framework considering planning and communication is reported.

Swarm pattern transformation methodologies

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need for developing swarm pattern transformation methodologies. Two methods, namely a macroscopic method and a mathematical method are investigated for pattern transformation. The first method is based on macroscopic parameters while the second method is based on both microscopic and macroscopic parameters. A formal definition to pattern transformation considering four special cases of transformation is presented. Simulations on a physics simulation engine are used to confirm the feasibility of the proposed transformation methods. A brief comparison between the two methods is also presented.

Investigating feasible tools for swarm pattern transformation

Abstract-The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need for developing swarm pattern transformation methodologies. Two methods, namely a macroscopic method and a mathematical method are investigated for pattern transformation. The first method is based on macroscopic parameters while the second method is based on both microscopic and macroscopic parameters. A formal definition to pattern transformation considering four special cases of transformation is presented. Simulations on a physics simulation engine are used to confirm the feasibility of the proposed transformation methods. A brief comparison between the two methods is also presented.

Establishing Lagrangian connections between observations within air masses crossing the Atlantic during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation experiment

The ITCT-Lagrangian-2K4 (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) experiment was conceived with an aim to quantify the effects of photochemistry and mixing on the transformation of air masses in the free troposphere away from emissions. To this end, attempts were made to intercept and sample air masses several times during their journey across the North Atlantic using four aircraft based in New Hampshire (USA), Faial (Azores) and Creil (France). This article begins by describing forecasts from two Lagrangian models that were used to direct the aircraft into target air masses. A novel technique then identifies Lagrangian matches between flight segments. Two independent searches are conducted: for Lagrangian model matches and for pairs of whole air samples with matching hydrocarbon fingerprints. The information is filtered further by searching for matching hydrocarbon samples that are linked by matching trajectories. The quality of these "coincident matches'' is assessed using temperature, humidity and tracer observations. The technique pulls out five clear Lagrangian cases covering a variety of situations and these are examined in detail. The matching trajectories and hydrocarbon fingerprints are shown, and the downwind minus upwind differences in tracers are discussed.

Single versus multiple occupancy - Effects on toxicity parameters measured on Eisenia fetida in lead nitrate-treated soil

The mortality (7 and 14 d), weight change (7 and 14 d), and metal uptake of Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826) kept in Pb(NO3)(2)-treated Kettering loam soil in single- and multiple-occupancy (10 earthworms) test containers were determined. The number of earthworms to dry mass (g) ratio of soil was 1:50 in both sets of test containers. Lead concentrations were in the nominal range of 0 to 10,000 mg Pb/kg soil (mg/kg hereafter). Levels of mortality at a given concentration were statistically identical between the single- and multiple-occupancy tests, except at 1,800 mg/kg, at which significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) more mortality occurred in the multiple-occupancy tests. Death of individual earthworms in the multiple-occupancy tests did not trigger death of the other earthworms in that soil. The LC50 values (concentration statistically likely to kill 50% of the population) were identical between the multiple- and single-occupancy soils: 2,662 mg/kg (2,598-2,984, 7 d) and 2,589 mg/kg (2,251-3,013, 14 d) for the multiple-occupancy soils and 2,827 mg/kg (2,443-3,168, both 7 and 14 d) for the single-occupancy soils (values in brackets represent the 95% confidence intervals). Data were insufficient to calculate the concentration statistically likely to reduce individual earthworm mass by 50% (EC50), but after 14 d, the decrease in earthworm weight in the 1,800 and 3,000 mg/kg tests was significantly greater in the multiple- than in the single-occupancy soils. At 1,000, 1,800, and 3,000 mg/kg tests, earthworm Pb tissue concentration was significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) greater in earthworms from the multiple-occupancy soils. The presence of earthworms increased the NH3 content of the soil; earthworm mortality increased NH3 concentrations further but not to toxic levels.

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Effects of metals on life cycle parameters of the earthworm Eisenia fetida exposed to field-contaminated, metal-polluted soils

Two control and eight field-contaminated, metal-polluted soils were inoculated with Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826). Three, 7, 14, 21, 28 and 42 days after inoculation, earthworm survival, body weight, cocoon production and hatching rate were measured. Seventeen metals were analysed in E.fetida tissue, bulk soil and soil solution. Soil organic carbon content, texture, pH and cation exchange capacity were also measured. Cocoon production and hatching rate were more sensitive to adverse conditions than survival or weight change. Soil properties other than metal concentration impacted toxicity. The most toxic soils were organic-poor (1-10 g C kg(-1)), sandy soils (c. 74% sand), with intermediate metal concentrations (e.g. 7150-13, 100 mg Ph kg(-1), 2970-53,400 mg Zn kg(-1)). Significant relationships between soil properties and the life cycle parameters were determined. The best coefficients of correlation were generally found for texture, pH, Ag, Cd, Mg, Pb, Tl, and Zn both singularly and in multivariate regressions. Studies that use metal-amended artificial soils are not useful to predict toxicity of field multi-contaminated soils. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model

The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen) model was studied using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known as 'soft data'. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations, although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.