Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial covariation of Azotobacter abundance and soil properties: A case study using the wavelet transform

The soil microflora is very heterogeneous in its spatial distribution. The origins of this heterogeneity and its significance for soil function are not well understood. A problem for understanding spatial variation better is the assumption of statistical stationarity that is made in most of the statistical methods used to assess it. These assumptions are made explicit in geostatistical methods that have been increasingly used by soil biologists in recent years. Geostatistical methods are powerful, particularly for local prediction, but they require the assumption that the variability of a property of interest is spatially uniform, which is not always plausible given what is known about the complexity of the soil microflora and the soil environment. We have used the wavelet transform, a relatively new innovation in mathematical analysis, to investigate the spatial variation of abundance of Azotobacter in the soil of a typical agricultural landscape. The wavelet transform entails no assumptions of stationarity and is well suited to the analysis of variables that show intermittent or transient features at different spatial scales. In this study, we computed cross-variograms of Azotobacter abundance with the pH, water content and loss on ignition of the soil. These revealed scale-dependent covariation in all cases. The wavelet transform also showed that the correlation of Azotobacter abundance with all three soil properties depended on spatial scale, the correlation generally increased with spatial scale and was only significantly different from zero at some scales. However, the wavelet analysis also allowed us to show how the correlation changed across the landscape. For example, at one scale Azotobacter abundance was strongly correlated with pH in part of the transect, and not with soil water content, but this was reversed elsewhere on the transect. The results show how scale-dependent variation of potentially limiting environmental factors can induce a complex spatial pattern of abundance in a soil organism. The geostatistical methods that we used here make assumptions that are not consistent with the spatial changes in the covariation of these properties that our wavelet analysis has shown. This suggests that the wavelet transform is a powerful tool for future investigation of the spatial structure and function of soil biota. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal trends in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater runoff in a subarctic catchment at Okstindan, Norway

Seasonal variations in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater were investigated in a sub-arctic, mountainous, but non-glacial, catchment at Okstindan in northern Norway based on analyses of delta(18)O and deltaD. Samples were collected during four field periods (August 1998; April 1999; June 1999 and August 1999) at three sites lying on an altitudinal transect (740-970 m a.s.l.). Snowpack data display an increase in the mean values of delta(18)O (increasing from a mean value of - 13.51 to - 11.49% between April and August), as well as a decrease in variability through the melt period. Comparison with a regional meteoric water line indicates that the slope of the delta(18)O - deltaD line for the snowpacks decreases over the same period, dropping from 7.49 to approximately 6.2. This change points to the role of evaporation in snowpack ablation and is confirmed by the vertical profile of deuterium excess. Snowpack seepage data, although limited, also suggest reduced values of deltaD, as might be associated with local evaporation during meltwater generation. In general, meltwaters were depleted in delta(18)O relative to the source snowpack at the peak of the melt (June), but later in the year (August) the difference between the two was not statistically significant. The diurnal pattern of isotopic composition indicates that the most depleted meltwaters coincide with the peak in temperature and, hence, meltwater production.

A comparative study of the effects of metal contamination on collembola in the field and in the laboratory

We examined the species diversity and abundance of Collembola at 32 sampling points along a gradient of metal contamination in a rough grassland site ( Wolverhampton, England), formerly used for the disposal of metal-rich smelting waste. Differences in the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn between the least and most contaminated part of the 35 metre transect were more than one order of magnitude. A gradient of Zn concentrations from 597 to 9080 mug g(-1) dry soil was found. A comparison between field concentrations of the four metals and previous studies on their relative toxicities to Collembola, suggested that Zn is likely to be responsible for any ecotoxicological effects on springtails at this site. Euedaphic ( soil dwelling) Collembola were extracted by placing soil cores into Tullgren funnels and epedaphic ( surface dwelling) species were sampled using pitfall traps. There was no obvious relationship between the total abundance, or a range of commonly used diversity indices, and Zn levels in soils. However, individual species showed considerable differences in abundance. Metal "tolerant'' (e.g., Ceratophysella denticulata) and metal "sensitive'' (e.g., Cryptopygus thermophilus) species could be identified. Epedaphic species appeared to be influenced less by metal contamination than euedaphic species. This difference is probably due to the higher mobility and lower contact with the soil pore water of epedaphic springtails in comparison to euedaphic Collembola. In an experiment exposing the standard test springtail, Folsomia candida, to soils from all 32 sampling points, adult survival and reproduction showed small but significant negative relationships with total Zn concentrations. Nevertheless, juveniles were still produced from eggs laid by females in the most contaminated soils with 9080 mug g(-1) Zn. Folsomia candida is much more sensitive to equivalent concentrations of Zn in the standard OECD soil. Thus, care should be taken in extrapolating the results of laboratory toxicity tests on metals in OECD soil to field soils, in which, the biological availability of contaminants is likely to be lower. Our studies have shown the importance of ecotoxicological effects at the species level. Although there may be no differences in overall abundance, sensitive species that are numerous in contaminated sites, and which may play important roles in decomposition("keystone species'') can be greatly reduced in numbers by pollution.

The effects of cattle grazing on plant-pollinator communities in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape

The main aims of this study were to assess grazing impacts on bee communities in fragmented mediterranean shrubland (phrygana) and woodland habitats that also experience frequent wildfires, and to explain the mechanisms by which these impacts occur. Fieldwork was carried out in 1999 and 2000 on Mount Carmel, in northern Israel, a known hot-spot for bee diversity. Habitats with a range of post-burn ages and varying intensities of cattle grazing were surveyed by transect recording, grazing levels, and the diversity and abundance of both flowers and bees were measured. The species richness of both bees and flowers were highest at moderate to high grazing intensities, and path-analysis indicated that the effects of both grazing and fire on bee diversity were mediated mainly through changes in flower diversity, herb flowers being more important than shrubs. The abundance of bees increased with intensified grazing pressure even at the highest levels surveyed. Surprisingly though, changes in bee abundance at high grazing levels were not caused directly by changes in flower cover. The variation in bee abundance may have been due to higher numbers of solitary bees from the family Halictidae in grazed sites, where compacted ground (nesting resource) and composites (forage resource) were abundant. The effects of grazing on plants were clearest in the intermediate-aged sites, where cattle inhibited the growth of some of the dominant shrubs, creating or maintaining more open patches where light-demanding herbs could grow, thus allowing a diverse flora to develop. Overall, bee communities benefit from a relatively high level of grazing in phrygana. Although bee and flower diversity may decrease under very heavy grazing, the present levels of grazing on Mount Carmel appear to have only beneficial effects on the bee community.

Measuring bee diversity in different European habitats and biogeographical regions

Bee pollinators are currently recorded with many different sampling methods. However, the relative performances of these methods have not been systematically evaluated and compared. In response to the strong need to record ongoing shifts in pollinator diversity and abundance, global and regional pollinator initiatives must adopt standardized sampling protocols when developing large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes. We systematically evaluated the performance of six sampling methods (observation plots, pan traps, standardized and variable transect walks, trap nests with reed internodes or paper tubes) that are commonly used across a wide range of geographical regions in Europe and in two habitat types (agricultural and seminatural). We focused on bees since they represent the most important pollinator group worldwide. Several characteristics of the methods were considered in order to evaluate their performance in assessing bee diversity: sample coverage, observed species richness, species richness estimators, collector biases (identified by subunit-based rarefaction curves), species composition of the samples, and the indication of overall bee species richness (estimated from combined total samples). The most efficient method in all geographical regions, in both the agricultural and seminatural habitats, was the pan trap method. It had the highest sample coverage, collected the highest number of species, showed negligible collector bias, detected similar species as the transect methods, and was the best indicator of overall bee species richness. The transect methods were also relatively efficient, but they had a significant collector bias. The observation plots showed poor performance. As trap nests are restricted to cavity-nesting bee species, they had a naturally low sample coverage. However, both trap nest types detected additional species that were not recorded by any of the other methods. For large-scale and long-term monitoring schemes with surveyors with different experience levels, we recommend pan traps as the most efficient, unbiased, and cost-effective method for sampling bee diversity. Trap nests with reed internodes could be used as a complementary sampling method to maximize the numbers of collected species. Transect walks are the principal method for detailed studies focusing on plant-pollinator associations. Moreover, they can be used in monitoring schemes after training the surveyors to standardize their collection skills.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

A comparative study of the effects of metal contamination on collembola in the field and in the laboratory

We examined the species diversity and abundance of Collembola at 32 sampling points along a gradient of metal contamination in a rough grassland site ( Wolverhampton, England), formerly used for the disposal of metal-rich smelting waste. Differences in the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn between the least and most contaminated part of the 35 metre transect were more than one order of magnitude. A gradient of Zn concentrations from 597 to 9080 mug g(-1) dry soil was found. A comparison between field concentrations of the four metals and previous studies on their relative toxicities to Collembola, suggested that Zn is likely to be responsible for any ecotoxicological effects on springtails at this site. Euedaphic ( soil dwelling) Collembola were extracted by placing soil cores into Tullgren funnels and epedaphic ( surface dwelling) species were sampled using pitfall traps. There was no obvious relationship between the total abundance, or a range of commonly used diversity indices, and Zn levels in soils. However, individual species showed considerable differences in abundance. Metal "tolerant'' (e.g., Ceratophysella denticulata) and metal "sensitive'' (e.g., Cryptopygus thermophilus) species could be identified. Epedaphic species appeared to be influenced less by metal contamination than euedaphic species. This difference is probably due to the higher mobility and lower contact with the soil pore water of epedaphic springtails in comparison to euedaphic Collembola. In an experiment exposing the standard test springtail, Folsomia candida, to soils from all 32 sampling points, adult survival and reproduction showed small but significant negative relationships with total Zn concentrations. Nevertheless, juveniles were still produced from eggs laid by females in the most contaminated soils with 9080 mug g(-1) Zn. Folsomia candida is much more sensitive to equivalent concentrations of Zn in the standard OECD soil. Thus, care should be taken in extrapolating the results of laboratory toxicity tests on metals in OECD soil to field soils, in which, the biological availability of contaminants is likely to be lower. Our studies have shown the importance of ecotoxicological effects at the species level. Although there may be no differences in overall abundance, sensitive species that are numerous in contaminated sites, and which may play important roles in decomposition("keystone species'') can be greatly reduced in numbers by pollution.

Assessing bee species richness in two Mediterranean communities: importance of habitat type and sampling techniques

The decline of bees has raised concerns regarding their conservation and the maintenance of ecosystem services they provide to bee-pollinated wild flowers and crops. Although the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for bee species richness, their status remains poorly studied. There is an urgent need for cost-effective, reliable, and unbiased sampling methods that give good bee species richness estimates. This study aims: (a) to assess bee species richness in two common Mediterranean habitat types: semi-natural scrub (phrygana) and managed olive groves; (b) to compare species richness in those systems to that of other biogeographic regions, and (c) to assess whether six different sampling methods (pan traps, variable and standardized transect walks, observation plots and trap nests), previously tested in other European biogeographic regions, are suitable in Mediterranean communities. Eight study sites, four per habitat type, were selected on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The species richness observed was high compared to other habitat types worldwide for which comparable data exist. Pan traps collected the highest proportion of the total bee species richness across all methods at the scale of a study site. Variable and standardized transect walks detected the highest total richness over all eight study sites. Trap nests and observation plots detected only a limited fraction of the bee species richness. To assess the total bee species richness in bee diversity hotspots, such as the studied habitats, we suggest a combination of transect walks conducted by trained bee collectors and pan trap sampling

Lichens used as monitors of atmospheric pollution around Agadir (Southwestern Morocco) - a case study predating lead-free gasoline

More than 30 epiphytic lichens, collected in Agadir (Morroco) and along a 150-km transect from the Atlantic Ocean eastward, were analyzed for their metal content and lead isotopic composition. This dataset was used to evaluate atmospheric metal contamination and the impact of the city on the surrounding area. The concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn (average ± 1 SD) were 20.9 ± 15.2 μg g−1, 13.8 ± 9.0 μg g−1, and 56.6 ± 26.6 μg g−1, respectively, with the highest values observed in lichens collected within the urban area. The 206Pb/207Pb and 208Pb/207Pb ratios in the lichens varied from 1.146 to 1.186 and from 2.423 to 2.460, respectively. Alkyllead-gasoline sold in Morocco by the major petrol companies gave isotopic ratios of 206Pb/207Pb = 1.076–1.081 and 208Pb/207Pb = 2.348–2.360. These new, homogeneous values for gasoline-derived lead improve and update the scarce isotopic database of potential lead sources in Morocco, and may be of great value to future environmental surveys on the presence of lead in natural reservoirs, where it persists over time (e.g., soils and sediments). The interest of normalizing metal concentrations in lichens to concentrations of a lithogenic element is demonstrated by the consistency of the results thus obtained with lead isotopic ratios. Leaded gasoline contributed less than 50% of the total amount of lead accumulated in lichens, even in areas subject to high vehicular traffic. This strongly suggests that the recent banishment of leaded gasoline in Morocco will not trigger a drastic improvement in air quality, at least in Agadir.

The Valanginian δ13C excursion may not be an expression of a global oceanic anoxic event

Marine and terrestrial sediments of the Valanginian age display a distinct positive δ13C excursion, which has recently been interpreted as the expression of an oceanic anoxic episode (OAE) of global importance. Here we evaluate the extent of anaerobic conditions in marine bottom waters and explore the mechanisms involved in changing carbon storage on a global scale during this time interval. We asses redox-sensitive trace-element distributions (RSTE; uranium, vanadium, cobalt, arsenic and molybdenum) and the quality and quantity of preserved organic matter (OM) in representative sections along a shelf-basin transect in the western Tethys, in the Polish Basin and on Shatsky Rise. OM-rich layers corresponding in time to the δ13C shift are generally rare in the Tethyan sections and if present, the layers are not thicker than several centimetres and total organic carbon (TOC) contents do not surpass 1.68 wt..%. Palynological observations and geochemical properties of the preserved OM suggest a mixed marine and terrestrial origin and deposition in an oxic environment. In the Polish Basin, OM-rich layers show evidence for an important continental component. RSTE exhibit no major enrichments during the δ13C excursion in all studied Tethyan sections. RSTE enrichments are, however, observed in the pre-δ13C excursion OM-rich “Barrande” levels of the Vocontian Trough. In addition, all Tethyan sections record higher Mn contents during the δ13C shift, indicating rather well-oxygenated bottom waters in the western Tethys and the presence of anoxic basins elsewhere, such as the restricted basins of the North Atlantic and Weddell Sea. We propose that the Valanginian δ13C shift is the consequence of a combination of increased OM storage in marginal seas and on continents (as a sink of 12C-enriched organic carbon), coupled with the demise of shallow-water carbonate platforms (diminishing the storage capacity of 13C-enriched carbonate carbon). As such the Valanginian provides a more faithful natural analogue to present-day environmental change than most other Mesozoic OAEs, which are characterized by the development of ocean-wide dysaerobic to anaerobic conditions.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Climate variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of ‘teleconnection’ between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20–10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated 14C ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination.

Evidence of a universal scaling relationship for leaf CO2 drawdown along an aridity gradient

The leaf carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) of C3 plants is inversely related to the drawdown of CO2 concentration during photosynthesis, which increases towards drier environments. We aimed to discriminate between the hypothesis of universal scaling, which predicts between-species responses of δ13C to aridity similar to within-species responses, and biotic homoeostasis, which predicts offsets in the δ13C of species occupying adjacent ranges. The Northeast China Transect spans 130–900 mm annual precipitation within a narrow latitude and temperature range. Leaves of 171 species were sampled at 33 sites along the transect (18 at ≥ 5 sites) for dry matter, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area (SLA) and δ13C. The δ13C of species generally followed a common relationship with the climatic moisture index (MI). Offsets between adjacent species were not observed. Trees and forbs diverged slightly at high MI. In C3 plants, δ13C predicted N per unit leaf area (Narea) better than MI. The δ13C of C4 plants was invariant with MI. SLA declined and Narea increased towards low MI in both C3 and C4 plants. The data are consistent with optimal stomatal regulation with respect to atmospheric dryness. They provide evidence for universal scaling of CO2 drawdown with aridity in C3 plants.