Type-1 error inflation in the traditional by-participant analysis to metamemory accuracy: a generalized mixed-effects model perspective

In order to examine metacognitive accuracy (i.e., the relationship between metacognitive judgment and memory performance), researchers often rely on by-participant analysis, where metacognitive accuracy (e.g., resolution, as measured by the gamma coefficient or signal detection measures) is computed for each participant and the computed values are entered into group-level statistical tests such as the t-test. In the current work, we argue that the by-participant analysis, regardless of the accuracy measurements used, would produce a substantial inflation of Type-1 error rates, when a random item effect is present. A mixed-effects model is proposed as a way to effectively address the issue, and our simulation studies examining Type-1 error rates indeed showed superior performance of mixed-effects model analysis as compared to the conventional by-participant analysis. We also present real data applications to illustrate further strengths of mixed-effects model analysis. Our findings imply that caution is needed when using the by-participant analysis, and recommend the mixed-effects model analysis.

Understanding the resurgence of traditional authorities in post-apartheid South Africa

Drawing their power not from the ballot box but from a supposedly ancient wellspring of power, hereditary traditional authorities in postcolonial Africa have frequently posed challenges for incoming ‘democratic’ governments. The situation in post-apartheid South Africa is no different. However contentious their role under the colonial and apartheid systems of government was, the Constitution of the new South Africa (1996) recognised traditional authorities and afforded them opportunities for a political resurgence. This paper reviews the changing status of traditional authorities in the Eastern Cape Province over the twenty years since 1994. It explores the resurgence of the chiefs in relation to the consolidation of both democratic processes and of emergent, neo-patrimonial modes of government. It briefly considers the role of traditional authorities in three key and closely related spheres, namely the institution of the Eastern Cape House of Traditional Leaders, the question of how gender is handled by and within traditional institutions, and the continuing challenges of land administration and development in rural areas. In all these spheres, and in the face of real opposition, the voice and influence traditional authorities have emerged stronger than ever. We conclude by suggesting that as they are drawn deeper into governance and have to play a formal role in addressing the myriad institutional challenges, new questions will and should be asked about the status and influence of traditional authorities, and their substantive contribution to democracy in South Africa.

An investigation and comparison of the bioactivity of selected essential oils on human lice and house dust mites

The insecticidal potency of some essential oils suggests that they may find an application in the control of house dust mites, but current in vitro assays for mites do not appear to give consistent results. A simple, novel, mite chamber assay was therefore developed to carry out testing. Different species of insects are susceptible to different essential oil components, so we compared the relative acaricidal and pediculicidal activity of three essential oils: tea tree, lavender and lemon, because the activity of their constituents on lice ranges from highly active to virtually inactive. The most effective essential oil against both lice and mites was tea tree oil; lavender was the second most effective, and lemon oil the least, although it did show activity against mites, unlike lice. The assay proved simple and effective and gave reproducible results. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP

The aim of this paper is essentially twofold: first, to describe the use of spherical nonparametric estimators for determining statistical diagnostic fields from ensembles of feature tracks on a global domain, and second, to report the application of these techniques to data derived from a modern general circulation model. New spherical kernel functions are introduced that are more efficiently computed than the traditional exponential kernels. The data-driven techniques of cross-validation to determine the amount elf smoothing objectively, and adaptive smoothing to vary the smoothing locally, are also considered. Also introduced are techniques for combining seasonal statistical distributions to produce longer-term statistical distributions. Although all calculations are performed globally, only the results for the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January, February) and Southern Hemisphere winter (June, July, August) cyclonic activity are presented, discussed, and compared with previous studies. Overall, results for the two hemispheric winters are in good agreement with previous studies, both for model-based studies and observational studies.

Isolating the signal of ocean global warming

Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 Wm−2 over the period 1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14°C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm−2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses.

Institutional sustainability: at what price? UNDP and the new cost-sharing model in Brazil

By the turn of the twenty-first century, UNDP had embraced a new form of funding based on ‘cost-sharing’, with this source accounting for 51 per cent of the organisation’s total expenditure worldwide in 2000. Unlike the traditional donor - recipient relationship so common with development projects, the new cost-sharing modality has created a situation whereby UNDP local offices become ‘subcontractors’ and agencies of the recipient countries become ‘clients’. This paper explores this transition in the context of Brazil, focusing on how the new modality may have compromised UNDP’s ability to promote Sustainable Human Development, as established in its mandate. The great enthusiasm for this modality within the UN system and its potential application to other developing countries increase the importance of a systematic assessment of its impact and developmental consequences.

Soil fertility management in the mid-hills of Nepal: Practices and perceptions

Sustaining soil fertility is essential to the prosperity of many households in the mid-hills of Nepal, but there are concerns that the breakdown of the traditional linkages between forest, livestock, and cropping systems is adversely affecting fertility. This study used triangulated data from surveys of households, discussion groups, and key informants in 16 wards in eastern and western Nepal to determine the existing practices for soil fertility management, the extent of such practices, and the perception of the direction of changes in soil fertility. The two principal practices for maintaining soil fertility were the application of farmyard manure (FYM) and of chemical fertilizer (mainly urea and diammonium phosphate). Green manuring, in-situ manuring, slicing terrace risers, and burning plant residues are rarely practiced. FYM usage was variable with more generally applied to khet land (average 6053 kg fresh weight manure ha(-1)) than to bari land (average 4185 kg fresh weight manure ha-1) with manure from goats and poultry preferred above that from cows and buffaloes. Almost all households (98%) apply urea to khet land and 87% to bari land, with 45% applying diammonium phosphate to both types of land. Application rates and timings of applications varied considerably both within and between wards suggesting poor knowledge transfer between the research and farming communities. The benefits of chemical fertilizers in terms of ease of application and transportation in comparison with FYM, were perceived to outweigh the widely reported detrimental hardening of soil associated with their continued usage. Among key informants, FYM applied in conjunction with chemical fertilizer was the most popular amendment, with FYM alone preferred more than chemical fertilizer alone - probably because of the latter's long-term detrimental effects. Key informant and householder surveys differed in their perception of fertility changes in the last decade probably because of differences in age and site-specific knowledge. All key informants felt that fertility had declined but among households, only about 40% perceived a decline with the remainder about evenly divided between no change and an increase. Householders with small landholdings (< 0.5 ha) were more likely to perceive increasing soil fertility while those with larger landholdings (> 2 ha) were more likely to perceive declining fertility. Perceived changes in soil fertility were not related to food self-sufficiency. The reasons for the slow spread of new technologies within wards and the poor understanding of optimal use of chemical fertilizers in conjunction with improved quality FYM may repay further investigation in terms of sustaining soil fertility in this region.

What is the new medicines use review ‘patient survey’ attempting to capture in the context of existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires and a new conceptual framework?

The community pharmacy service medicines use review (MUR) was introduced in 2005 ‘to improve patient knowledge, concordance and use of medicines’ through a private patient–pharmacist consultation. The MUR presents a fundamental change in community pharmacy service provision. While traditionally pharmacists are dispensers of medicines and providers of medicines advice, and patients as recipients, the MUR considers pharmacists providing consultation-type activities and patients as active participants. The MUR facilitates a two-way discussion about medicines use. Traditional patient–pharmacist behaviours transform into a new set of behaviours involving the booking of appointments, consultation processes and form completion, and the physical environment of the patient–pharmacist interaction moves from the traditional setting of the dispensary and medicines counter to a private consultation room. Thus, the new service challenges traditional identities and behaviours of the patient and the pharmacist as well as the environment in which the interaction takes place. In 2008, the UK government concluded there is at present too much emphasis on the quantity of MURs rather than on their quality.[1] A number of plans to remedy the perceived imbalance included a suggestion to reward ‘health outcomes’ achieved, with calls for a more focussed and scientific approach to the evaluation of pharmacy services using outcomes research. Specifically, the UK government set out the main principal research areas for the evaluation of pharmacy services to include ‘patient and public perceptions and satisfaction’as well as ‘impact on care and outcomes’. A limited number of ‘patient satisfaction with pharmacy services’ type questionnaires are available, of varying quality, measuring dimensions relating to pharmacists’ technical competence, behavioural impressions and general satisfaction. For example, an often cited paper by Larson[2] uses two factors to measure satisfaction, namely ‘friendly explanation’ and ‘managing therapy’; the factors are highly interrelated and the questions somewhat awkwardly phrased, but more importantly, we believe the questionnaire excludes some specific domains unique to the MUR. By conducting patient interviews with recent MUR recipients, we have been working to identify relevant concepts and develop a conceptual framework to inform item development for a Patient Reported Outcome Measure questionnaire bespoke to the MUR. We note with interest the recent launch of a multidisciplinary audit template by the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (RPSGB) in an attempt to review the effectiveness of MURs and improve their quality.[3] This template includes an MUR ‘patient survey’. We will discuss this ‘patient survey’ in light of our work and existing patient satisfaction with pharmacy questionnaires, outlining a new conceptual framework as a basis for measuring patient satisfaction with the MUR. Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2 June 2008. References 1. Department of Health (2008). Pharmacy in England: Building on Strengths – Delivering the Future. London: HMSO. www. official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm73/7341/7341.pdf (accessed 29 September 2009). 2. Larson LN et al. Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care: update of a validated instrument. JAmPharmAssoc 2002; 42: 44–50. 3. Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain (2009). Pharmacy Medicines Use Review – Patient Audit. London: RPSGB. http:// qi4pd.org.uk/index.php/Medicines-Use-Review-Patient-Audit. html (accessed 29 September 2009).

Does the regional nature of multinationals affect the multinationality and performance relationship?

The traditional independent variable in the multinationality and performance literature is the ratio of foreign (F) to total (T) sales, (F/T). This can now be supplemented by a new regional variable, the ratio of regional (R) to total (T) sales, i.e. (R/T). Data are presented on both (F/T) and (R/T) for both sales and assets for a 5-year period, 2001–2005. New tests are reported on (R/T) as it affects a financial measure of performance, the Tobin's Q. Implications are drawn for future research on the S-curve relationship between multinationality and performance in the light of this regional phenomenon.

Active networks: an evolution of the internet

Active Networks can be seen as an evolution of the classical model of packet-switched networks. The traditional and ”passive” network model is based on a static definition of the network node behaviour. Active Networks propose an “active” model where the intermediate nodes (switches and routers) can load and execute user code contained in the data units (packets). Active Networks are a programmable network model, where bandwidth and computation are both considered shared network resources. This approach opens up new interesting research fields. This paper gives a short introduction of Active Networks, discusses the advantages they introduce and presents the research advances in this field.

Rethinking the powers of truth commissions in light of the ICC statute

The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) is silent on the issue of national truth commissions. How the ICC might treat these bodies and the information they may hold is uncertain. The overlapping nature of the investigations likely to be carried out by the ICC and future truth-seeking bodies may, however, give rise to areas of tension, particularly where truth commissions hold confidential or self-incriminating information. This article questions whether the traditional truth-seeking powers to grant confidentiality and compel the provision of self-incriminating statements are compatible with the prosecutorial framework of the ICC. It considers how such information is likely to be dealt with by the ICC and analyses whether effective truth seeking can be carried out in the absence of such powers.