Calibrating flood inundation models: identifying and addressing uncertainty in satellite observed flood extents

Improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery have enabled extraction of water surface elevations at the margins of the flood. Comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations provides a new means for calibrating and validating flood inundation models, however the uncertainty in this observed data has yet to be addressed. Here a flood inundation model is calibrated using a probabilistic treatment of the observed data. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to determine an outline of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, using a 12.5m ERS-1 image. Points at approximately 100m intervals along this outline are selected, and the water surface elevation recorded as the LiDAR DEM elevation at each point. With a planar water surface from the gauged upstream to downstream water elevations as an approximation, the water surface elevations at points along this flooded extent are compared to their ‘expected’ value. The pattern of errors between the two show a roughly normal distribution, however when plotted against coordinates there is obvious spatial autocorrelation. The source of this spatial dependency is investigated by comparing errors to the slope gradient and aspect of the LiDAR DEM. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the flood event is set-up to investigate the effect of observed data uncertainty on the calibration of flood inundation models. Multiple simulations are run using different combinations of friction parameters, from which the optimum parameter set will be selected. For each simulation a T-test is used to quantify the fit between modelled and observed water surface elevations. The points chosen for use in this T-test are selected based on their error. The criteria for selection enables evaluation of the sensitivity of the choice of optimum parameter set to uncertainty in the observed data. This work explores the observed data in detail and highlights possible causes of error. The identification of significant error (RMSE = 0.8m) between approximate expected and actual observed elevations from the remotely sensed data emphasises the limitations of using this data in a deterministic manner within the calibration process. These limitations are addressed by developing a new probabilistic approach to using the observed data.

Word frequency and bigram frequency effects on linguistic processing and speech motor performance in individuals with aphasia and normal speakers

Models of normal word production are well specified about the effects of frequency of linguistic stimuli on lexical access, but are less clear regarding the same effects on later stages of word production, particularly word articulation. In aphasia, this lack of specificity of down-stream frequency effects is even more noticeable because there is relatively limited amount of data on the time course of frequency effects for this population. This study begins to fill this gap by comparing the effects of variation of word frequency (lexical, whole word) and bigram frequency (sub-lexical, within word) on word production abilities in ten normal speakers and eight mild–moderate individuals with aphasia. In an immediate repetition paradigm, participants repeated single monosyllabic words in which word frequency (high or low) was crossed with bigram frequency (high or low). Indices for mapping the time course for these effects included reaction time (RT) for linguistic processing and motor preparation, and word duration (WD) for speech motor performance (word articulation time). The results indicated that individuals with aphasia had significantly longer RT and WD compared to normal speakers. RT showed a significant main effect only for word frequency (i.e., high-frequency words had shorter RT). WD showed significant main effects of word and bigram frequency; however, contrary to our expectations, high-frequency items had longer WD. Further investigation of WD revealed that independent of the influence of word and bigram frequency, vowel type (tense or lax) had the expected effect on WD. Moreover, individuals with aphasia differed from control speakers in their ability to implement tense vowel duration, even though they could produce an appropriate distinction between tense and lax vowels. The results highlight the importance of using temporal measures to identify subtle deficits in linguistic and speech motor processing in aphasia, the crucial role of phonetic characteristics of stimuli set in studying speech production and the need for the language production models to account more explicitly for word articulation.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

How Twitter is studied in the medical professions: a classification of Twitter papers indexed in PubMed

Background: Since their inception, Twitter and related microblogging systems have provided a rich source of information for researchers and have attracted interest in their affordances and use. Since 2009 PubMed has included 123 journal articles on medicine and Twitter, but no overview exists as to how the field uses Twitter in research. // Objective: This paper aims to identify published work relating to Twitter indexed by PubMed, and then to classify it. This classification will provide a framework in which future researchers will be able to position their work, and to provide an understanding of the current reach of research using Twitter in medical disciplines. Limiting the study to papers indexed by PubMed ensures the work provides a reproducible benchmark. // Methods: Papers, indexed by PubMed, on Twitter and related topics were identified and reviewed. The papers were then qualitatively classified based on the paper’s title and abstract to determine their focus. The work that was Twitter focused was studied in detail to determine what data, if any, it was based on, and from this a categorization of the data set size used in the studies was developed. Using open coded content analysis additional important categories were also identified, relating to the primary methodology, domain and aspect. // Results: As of 2012, PubMed comprises more than 21 million citations from biomedical literature, and from these a corpus of 134 potentially Twitter related papers were identified, eleven of which were subsequently found not to be relevant. There were no papers prior to 2009 relating to microblogging, a term first used in 2006. Of the remaining 123 papers which mentioned Twitter, thirty were focussed on Twitter (the others referring to it tangentially). The early Twitter focussed papers introduced the topic and highlighted the potential, not carrying out any form of data analysis. The majority of published papers used analytic techniques to sort through thousands, if not millions, of individual tweets, often depending on automated tools to do so. Our analysis demonstrates that researchers are starting to use knowledge discovery methods and data mining techniques to understand vast quantities of tweets: the study of Twitter is becoming quantitative research. // Conclusions: This work is to the best of our knowledge the first overview study of medical related research based on Twitter and related microblogging. We have used five dimensions to categorise published medical related research on Twitter. This classification provides a framework within which researchers studying development and use of Twitter within medical related research, and those undertaking comparative studies of research relating to Twitter in the area of medicine and beyond, can position and ground their work.

Equation for the microwave backscatter cross section of aggregate snowflakes using the self-similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation

In this paper an equation is derived for the mean backscatter cross section of an ensemble of snowflakes at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths. It uses the Rayleigh–Gans approximation, which has previously been found to be applicable at these wavelengths due to the low density of snow aggregates. Although the internal structure of an individual snowflake is random and unpredictable, the authors find from simulations of the aggregation process that their structure is “self-similar” and can be described by a power law. This enables an analytic expression to be derived for the backscatter cross section of an ensemble of particles as a function of their maximum dimension in the direction of propagation of the radiation, the volume of ice they contain, a variable describing their mean shape, and two variables describing the shape of the power spectrum. The exponent of the power law is found to be −. In the case of 1-cm snowflakes observed by a 3.2-mm-wavelength radar, the backscatter is 40–100 times larger than that of a homogeneous ice–air spheroid with the same mass, size, and aspect ratio.

Differential effects of internal and external factors on the development of vocabulary, tense morphology and morpho-syntax in successive bilingual children

The present study investigates the effects of child internal (age/time) and child external/environmental factors on the development of a wide range of language domains in successive bilingual (L2) Turkish-English children of homogeneously low SES. Forty-three L2 children were tested on standardized assessments examining the acquisition of vocabulary and morpho-syntax. The L2 children exhibited a differential acquisition of the various domains: they were better on the general comprehension of grammar and tense morphology and less accurate on the acquisition of vocabulary and (complex) morpho-syntax. Profile effects were confirmed by the differential effects of internal and external factors on the language domains. The development of vocabulary and complex syntax were affected by internal and external factors, whereas external factors had no contribution to the development of tense morphology. These results are discussed in light of previous studies on the impact of internal and external factors in child L2 acquisition.

Production and processing asymmetries in the acquisition of tense morphology by sequential bilingual children

This study investigates the production and on-line processing of English tense morphemes by sequential bilingual (L2) Turkish-speaking children with more than three years of exposure to English. Thirty nine 6-9-year-old L2 children and 28 typically developing age-matched monolingual (L1) children were administered the production component for third person –s and past tense of the Test for Early Grammatical Impairment (Rice & Wexler, 1996) and participated in an on-line word-monitoring task involving grammatical and ungrammatical sentences with presence/omission of tense (third person –s, past tense -ed) and non-tense (progressive –ing, possessive ‘s) morphemes. The L2 children’s performance on the on-line task was compared to that of children with Specific Language Impairment (SLI) in Montgomery & Leonard (1998, 2006) to ascertain similarities and differences between the two populations. Results showed that the L2 children were sensitive to the ungrammaticality induced by the omission of tense morphemes, despite variable production. This reinforces the claim about intact underlying syntactic representations in child L2 acquisition despite non target-like production (Haznedar & Schwartz, 1997).

Processing of regular and irregular past tense morphology in highly proficient second language learners of English: a self-paced reading study

Dual-system models suggest that English past tense morphology involves two processing routes: rule application for regular verbs and memory retrieval for irregular verbs (Pinker, 1999). In second language (L2) processing research, Ullman (2001a) suggested that both verb types are retrieved from memory, but more recently Clahsen and Felser (2006) and Ullman (2004) argued that past tense rule application can be automatised with experience by L2 learners. To address this controversy, we tested highly proficient Greek-English learners with naturalistic or classroom L2 exposure compared to native English speakers in a self-paced reading task involving past tense forms embedded in plausible sentences. Our results suggest that, irrespective to the type of exposure, proficient L2 learners of extended L2 exposure apply rule-based processing.

Subject-to-subject raising and the syntax of tense in L2 Spanish: a full access approach

This paper investigates the acquisition of syntax in L2 grammars. We tested adult L2 speakers of Spanish (English L1) on the feature specification of T(ense), which is different in English and Spanish in so-called subject-to-subject raising structures. We present experimental results with the verb parecer “to seem/to appear” in different tenses, with and without experiencers, and with Tense Phrase (TP), verb phrase (vP) and Adjectival Phrase (AP) complements. The results show that advanced L2 learners can perform just like native Spanish speakers regarding grammatical knowledge in this domain, although the subtle differences between both languages are not explicitly taught. We argue that these results support Full Access approaches to Universal Grammar (UG) in L2 acquisition, by providing evidence that uninterpretable syntactic features can be learned in adult L2, even when such features are not directly instantiated in the same grammatical domain in the L1 grammar.