Generic unified modelling process for developing semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models

Models play a vital role in supporting a range of activities in numerous domains. We rely on models to support the design, visualisation, analysis and representation of parts of the world around us, and as such significant research effort has been invested into numerous areas of modelling; including support for model semantics, dynamic states and behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. Whilst these efforts have increased our capabilities and allowed us to create increasingly powerful software-based models, the process of developing models, supporting tools and /or data structures remains difficult, expensive and error-prone. In this paper we define from literature the key factors in assessing a model’s quality and usefulness: semantic richness, support for dynamic states and object behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. We also identify a number of shortcomings in both existing modelling standards and model development processes and propose a unified generic process to guide users through the development of semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Equivalent noise level generated by drilling onto the ossicular chain as measured by laser Doppler vibrometry: A temporal bone study

Background: Inadvertent drilling on the ossicular chain is one of the causes of sensorineural hearing loss (HL) that may follow tympanomastoid surgery. A high-frequency HL is most frequently observed. It is speculated that the HL is a result of vibration of the ossicular chain resembling acoustic noise trauma. It is generally considered that using a large cutting burr is more likely to cause damage than a small diamond burr. Aim: The aim was to investigate the equivalent noise level and its frequency characteristics generated by drilling onto the short process of the incus in fresh human temporal bones. Methods and Materials: Five fresh cadaveric temporal bones were used. Stapes displacement was measured using laser Doppler vibrometry during short drilling episodes. Diamond. and cutting burrs of different diameters were used. The effect of the drilling on stapes footplate displacement was compared with that generated by an acoustic signal. The equivalent noise level (dB sound pressure level equivalent [SPL eq]) was thus calculated. Results: The equivalent noise levels generated ranged from 93 to 125 dB SPL eq. For a 1-mm cutting burr, the highest equivalent noise level was 108 dB SPL eq, whereas a 2.3-mm cutting burr produced a maximal level of 125 dB SPL eq. Diamond burrs generated less noise than their cutting counterparts, with a 2.3-mm diamond burr producing a highest equivalent noise level of 102, dB SPL eq. The energy of the noise increased at the higher end of the frequency spectrum, with a 2.3-mm cutting burr producing a noise level of 105 dB SPL eq at 1 kHz and 125 dB SPL eq at 8 kHz. In contrast, the same sized diamond burr produced 96 dB SPL eq at 1 kHz and 99 dB at 8 kHz. Conclusion:This study suggests that drilling on the ossicular chain can produce vibratory force that is analogous with noise levels known to produce acoustic trauma. For the same type of burr, the larger the diameter, the greater the vibratory force, and for the same size of burr, the cutting burr creates more vibratory force than the diamond burr. The cutting burr produces greater high-frequency than lower-frequency vibratory energy.

The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed.

A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process.

On the nature of ULF wave power during nightside auroral activations and substorms: 2. temporal evolution

We present a statistical analysis of the time evolution of ground magnetic fluctuations in three (12–48 s, 24–96 s and 48–192 s) period bands during nightside auroral activations. We use an independently derived auroral activation list composed of both substorms and pseudo-breakups to provide an estimate of the activation times of nightside aurora during periods with comprehensive ground magnetometer coverage. One hundred eighty-one events in total are studied to demonstrate the statistical nature of the time evolution of magnetic wave power during the ∼30 min surrounding auroral activations. We find that the magnetic wave power is approximately constant before an auroral activation, starts to grow up to 90 s prior to the optical onset time, maximizes a few minutes after the auroral activation, then decays slightly to a new, and higher, constant level. Importantly, magnetic ULF wave power always remains elevated after an auroral activation, whether it is a substorm or a pseudo-breakup. We subsequently divide the auroral activation list into events that formed part of ongoing auroral activity and events that had little preceding geomagnetic activity. We find that the evolution of wave power in the ∼10–200 s period band essentially behaves in the same manner through auroral onset, regardless of event type. The absolute power across ULF wave bands, however, displays a power law-like dependency throughout a 30 min period centered on auroral onset time. We also find evidence of a secondary maximum in wave power at high latitudes ∼10 min following isolated substorm activations. Most significantly, we demonstrate that magnetic wave power levels persist after auroral activations for ∼10 min, which is consistent with recent findings of wave-driven auroral precipitation during substorms. This suggests that magnetic wave power and auroral particle precipitation are intimately linked and key components of the substorm onset process.

Process analysis of trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy for individuals with schizophrenia

Objective. Therapeutic alliance, modality, and ability to engage with the process of therapy have been the main focus of research into what makes psychotherapy successful. Individuals with complex trauma histories or schizophrenia are suggested to be more difficult to engage and may be less likely to benefit from therapy. This study aimed to track the in-session ‘process’ of working alliance and emotional processing of trauma memories for individuals with schizophrenia. Design. The study utilized session recordings from the treatment arm of an open randomized clinical trial investigating trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT) for individuals with schizophrenia (N = 26). Method. Observer measures of working alliance, emotional processing, and affect arousal were rated at early and late phases of therapy. Correlation analysis was undertaken for process measures. Temporal analysis of expressed emotions was also reported. Results. Working alliance was established and maintained throughout the therapy; however, agreement on goals reduced at the late phase. The participants appeared to be able to engage in emotional processing, but not to the required level for successful cognitive restructuring. Conclusion. This study undertook novel exploration of process variables not usually explored in CBT. It is also the first study of process for TF-CBT with individuals with schizophrenia. This complex clinical sample showed no difficulty in engagement; however, they may not be able to fully undertake the cognitive–emotional demands of this type of therapy. Clinical and research implications and potential limitations of these methods are considered.