Assessing levels of uncertainty in recent temperature time series

We examine to what degree we can expect to obtain accurate temperature trends for the last two decades near the surface and in the lower troposphere. We compare temperatures obtained from surface observations and radiosondes as well as satellite-based measurements from the Microwave Soundings Units (MSU), which have been adjusted for orbital decay and non-linear instrument-body effects, and reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In regions with abundant conventional data coverage, where the MSU has no major influence on the reanalysis, temperature anomalies obtained from microwave sounders, radiosondes and from both reanalyses agree reasonably. Where coverage is insufficient, in particular over the tropical oceans, large differences are found between the MSU and either reanalysis. These differences apparently relate to changes in the satellite data availability and to differing satellite retrieval methodologies, to which both reanalyses are quite sensitive over the oceans. For NCEP, this results from the use of raw radiances directly incorporated into the analysis, which make the reanalysis sensitive to changes in the underlying algorithms, e.g. those introduced in August 1992. For ERA, the bias-correction of the one-dimensional variational analysis may introduce an error when the satellite relative to which the correction is calculated is biased itself or when radiances change on a time scale longer than a couple of months, e.g. due to orbit decay. ERA inhomogeneities are apparent in April 1985, October/November 1986 and April 1989. These dates can be identified with the replacements of satellites. It is possible that a negative bias in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used in the reanalyses may have been introduced over the period of the satellite record. This could have resulted from a decrease in the number of ship measurements, a concomitant increase in the importance of satellite-derived SSTs, and a likely cold bias in the latter. Alternately, a warm bias in SSTs could have been caused by an increase in the percentage of buoy measurements (relative to deeper ship intake measurements) in the tropical Pacific. No indications for uncorrected inhomogeneities of land surface temperatures could be found. Near-surface temperatures have biases in the boundary layer in both reanalyses, presumably due to the incorrect treatment of snow cover. The increase of near-surface compared to lower tropospheric temperatures in the last two decades may be due to a combination of several factors, including high-latitude near-surface winter warming due to an enhanced NAO and upper-tropospheric cooling due to stratospheric ozone decrease.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Temperature-responsive properties and drug solubilization capacity of amphiphilic copolymers based on N-vinylpyrrolidone and vinyl propyl ether

A series of amphiphilic copolymers were synthesized by free-radical copolymerization of N-vinylpyrrolidone (NVP) with vinyl propyl ether (VPE), and the structure of the copolymers was characterized by elemental analysis and gel permeation chromatography. The reactivity of VPE in copolymerization was found to be significantly lower than the reactivity of NVP, which resulted in a decrease of copolymers’ yields and molecular weights with higher content of VPE in the feed mixture. An investigation of the behavior of the copolymers in aqueous solutions at different temperatures by dynamic light scattering revealed the presence of lower critical solution temperature, which depending on the content of VPE ranged within 23−38 °C. Aqueous solutions of these copolymers were studied by fluorescent spectroscopy with pyrene as a polarity probe to reveal the formation of hydrophobic domains. The copolymers were found to be useful for enhancing the solubility of riboflavin in water.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - I. Effects of ensiling temperature, enzyme source and addition level

A series of experiments was completed to investigate the impact of addition of enzymes at ensiling on in vitro rumen degradation of maize silage. Two commercial products, Depot 40 (D, Biocatalysts Ltd., Pontypridd, UK) and Liquicell 2500 (L, Specialty Enzymes and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA, USA), were used. In experiment 1, the pH optima over a pH range 4.0-6.8 and the stability of D and L under changing pH (4.0, 5.6, 6.8) and temperature (15 and 39 degreesC) conditions were determined. In experiment 2, D and L were applied at three levels to whole crop maize at ensiling, using triplicate 0.5 kg capacity laboratory minisilos. A completely randomized design with a factorial arrangement of treatments was used. One set of treatments was stored at room temperature, whereas another set was stored at 40 degreesC during the first 3 weeks of fermentation, and then stored at room temperature. Silages were opened after 120 days. Results from experiment I indicated that the xylanase activity of both products showed an optimal pH of about 5.6, but the response differed according to the enzyme, whereas the endoglucanase activity was inversely related to pH. Both products retained at least 70% of their xylanase activity after 48 h incubation at 15 or 39 degreesC. In experiment 2, enzymes reduced (P < 0.05) silage pH, regardless of storage temperature and enzyme level. Depol 40 reduced (P < 0.05) the starch contents of the silages, due to its high alpha-amylase activity. This effect was more noticeable in the silages stored at room temperature. Addition of L reduced (P < 0.05) neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) contents. In vitro rumen degradation, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT), showed that L increased (P < 0.05) the initial 6 h gas production (GP) and organic matter degradability (OMD), but did not affect (P > 0.05) the final extent of OMD, indicating that this preparation acted on the rumen degradable material. In contrast, silages treated with D had reduced (P < 0.05) rates of gas production and OMD. These enzymes, regardless of ensiling temperature, can be effective in improving the nutritive quality of maize silage when applied at ensiling. However, the biochemical properties of enzymes (i.e., enzymic activities, optimum pH) may have a crucial role in dictating the nature of the responses. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

Direct time-resolved study of the gas-phase reactions of germylene with ethyl- and diethylgermane: absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, and mechanism

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethyl-1-germacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reactions with ethyl- and diethylgermanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 297-564 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for GeH2 + EtGeH3 (399, 486, and 564 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: for GeH2 + EtGeH3, log A = -10.75 +/- 0.08 and E-a = -6.7 +/- 0.6 kJ mol(-1); for GeH2 + Et2GeH2, log A = -10.68 +/- 0.11 and E-a = -6.95 +/- 0.80 kJ mol(-1). These are consistent with fast, near collision-controlled, association processes at 298 K. RRKM modeling calculations are, for the most part, consistent with the observed pressure dependence of GeH2 + EtGeH3. The ethyl substituent effects have been extracted from these results and are much larger than the analogous methyl substituent effects in the SiH2 + methylsilane reaction series. This is consistent with a mechanistic model for Ge-H insertion in which the intermediate complex has a sizable secondary barrier to rearrangement.

Low-temperature determination of theophylline dimethyl sulfoxide solvate

The title solvate, C7H8N4O2 center dot C2H6OS, was obtained unintentionally from a cocrystal screen involving theophylline and isophthalic acid. One molecule each of theophylline and dimethyl sulfoxide is present in the asymmetric unit. The packing consists of molecular sheets lying parallel to the ( 040) series of lattice planes, in which each theophylline molecule is hydrogen bonded to one dimethyl sulfoxide molecule through an N-H center dot center dot center dot O [2.7658 (15) angstrom] hydrogen bond. This particular hydrogen-bond donor was found to be used in this type of interaction in a variety of other crystal structures of theophylline.

Ordering on multiple lengthscales in a series of side group liquid crystal block copolymers containing a cholesteryl-based mesogen

Hierarchical ordering in a side group liquid crystal block copolymer is investigated by differential scanning calorimetry, polarized optical microscopy, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). A series of block copolymers with a range of compositions was prepared by atom transfer radical polymerization, comprising a polystyrene block and a poly(methyl methacrylate) block bearing chiral cholesteryl mesogens. Smectic ordering is observed as well as microphase separation of the block copolymer. Lamellar structures were observed for far larger volume fractions than for coil-coil copolymers (up to a volume fraction of liquid crystal block, f(LC) = 0.8). A sample with f(LC) = 0.86 exhibited a hexagonal-packed cylinder morphology, as confirmed by SAXS and TEM. The matrix comprised the liquid crystal block, with the mesogens forming smectic layers. For the liquid crystal homopolymer and samples with high f(LC), a smectic-smectic phase transition was observed below the clearing point. At low temperature, the smectic phase comprises coexisting domains with monolayer S-A,S-1 coexisting with interdigitated S-A,S-d domains. At high temperature a SA,1 phase is observed. This is the only structure observed for samples with lower f(LC). These unprecedented results point to the influence of block copolymer microphase separation on the smectic ordering.