A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

A Cu tolerant population of the earthworm Dendrodrilus rubidus (Savigny, 1862) at Coniston Copper Mines, Cumbria, UK

Dendrodrilus rubidus were sampled from a mine spoil soil at Coniston Copper Mine, an abandoned Cu mine in Cumbria, UK and a Cu-free control site. Earthworms were maintained for 14 d in both Kettering loam and a Moorland soil amended with Cu nitrate. Mortality, condition index, weight change and tissue concentration were determined. In both soils D. rubidus native to the mine site were able to tolerate significantly higher soil Cu concentrations (MWRT, p <= 0.001), and exhibited significantly less change in weight (t-test, p <= 0.001) and a lower loss in condition (t-test, p <= 0.001) than control earthworms. For a given soil Cu concentration tissue Cu concentrations were greater in the mine site earthworms. Low cocoon production and viability from the mine site population prevented the determination of toxicity parameters on the F1 generation and may be an indicator of the cost of tolerance to the population. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns of pollen and seed dispersal in a small, fragmented population of the wind-pollinated tree Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil

Paternity analysis based on eight microsatellite loci was used to investigate pollen and seed dispersal patterns of the dioecious wind- pollinated tree, Araucaria angustifolia. The study sites were a 5.4 ha isolated forest fragment and a small tree group situated 1.7 km away, located in Paran alpha State, Brazil. In the forest fragment, 121 males, 99 females, 66 seedlings and 92 juveniles were mapped and genotyped, together with 210 seeds. In the tree group, nine male and two female adults were mapped and genotyped, together with 20 seeds. Paternity analysis within the forest fragment indicated that at least 4% of the seeds, 3% of the seedlings and 7% of the juveniles were fertilized by pollen from trees in the adjacent group, and 6% of the seeds were fertilized by pollen from trees outside these stands. The average pollination distance within the forest fragment was 83 m; when the tree group was included the pollination distance was 2006m. The average number of effective pollen donors was estimated as 12.6. Mother- trees within the fragment could be assigned to all seedlings and juveniles, suggesting an absence of seed immigration. The distance of seedlings and juveniles from their assigned mother- trees ranged from 0.35 to 291m ( with an average of 83m). Significant spatial genetic structure among adult trees, seedlings, and juveniles was detected up to 50m, indicating seed dispersal over a short distance. The effective pollination neighborhood ranged from 0.4 to 3.3 ha. The results suggest that seed dispersal is restricted but that there is longdistance pollen dispersal between the forest fragment and the tree group; thus, the two stands of trees are not isolated.

Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in a reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel

Many populations have recovered from severe bottlenecks either naturally or through intensive conservation management. In the past, however, few conservation programs have monitored the genetic health of recovering populations. We conducted a conservation genetic assessment of a small, reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel (Falco punctatus) to determine whether genetic deterioration has occurred since its reintroduction. We used pedigree analysis that partially accounted for individuals of unknown origin to document that (1) inbreeding occurred frequently (2.6% increase per generation; N-el = 18.9), (2) 25% of breeding pairs were composed of either closely or moderately related individuals, (3) genetic diversity has been lost from the population (1,6% loss per generation; N-ev = 32.1) less rapidly than the corresponding increase in inbreeding, and (4) ignoring the contribution of unknown individuals to a pedigree will bias the metrics derived from that pedigree, ultimately obscuring the prevailing genetic dynamics. The rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in the subpopulation of Mauritius Kestrel we examined were extreme and among the highest yet documented in a wild vertebrate population. Thus, genetic deterioration may affect this population's long-term viability. Remedial conservation strategies are needed to reduce the impact of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in this species, We suggest that schemes to monitor genetic variation after reintroduction should be an integral component of endangered species recovery programs

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Influence of habitual diet on antioxidant status: a study in a population of vegetarians and omnivores

Background: Antioxidant status can be used as a biomarker to assess chronic disease risk and diet can modulate antioxidant defence. Objective: To examine effects of vegetarian diet and variations in the habitual intakes of foods and nutrients on blood antioxidants. Subjects and Setting: Thirty-one vegetarians (including six vegans) and 58 omnivores, non-smokers, in Northern Ireland. Design: A diet history method was used to assess habitual diet. Antioxidant vitamins, carotenoids, uric acid, zinc-and ferric-reducing ability of plasma (FRAP) were measured in fasting plasma and activities of glutathione peroxidase (GPX), superoxide dismutase ( SOD) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) and level of reduced glutathione (GSH) were measured in erythrocytes. Results: Vegetarians had approximately 15% higher levels of plasma carotenoids compared with omnivores, including lutein (P <= 0.05), a-cryptoxanthin (P <= 0.05), lycopene (NS), alpha-carotene (NS) and beta-carotene (NS). The levels/activities of all other antioxidants measured were similar between vegetarians and omnivores. Total intake of fruits, vegetables and fruit juices was positively associated with plasma levels of several carotenoids and vitamin C. Intake of vegetables was positively associated with plasma lutein, alpha-cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene and beta-carotene, whereas intake of fruits was positively associated with plasma beta-cryptoxanthin. Intake of tea and wine was positively associated with FRAP value, whereas intake of herbal tea associated positively with plasma vitamin C. Intakes of meat and fish were positively associated with plasma uric acid and FRAP value. Conclusions: The overall antioxidant status was similar between vegetarians and omnivores. Good correlations were found between intakes of carotenoids and their respective status in blood.

Proteome analysis for identification of target proteins of genistein in primary human endothelial cells stressed with oxidized LDL or homocysteine

Background Epidemiological studies suggest that soy consumption contributes to the prevention of coronary heart disease. The proposed anti-atherogenic effects of soy appear to be carried by the soy isoflavones with genistein as the most abundant compound. Aim of the study To identify proteins or pathways by which genistein might exert its protective activities on atherosclerosis, we analyzed the proteomic response of primary human umbilical vein endothelial cells ( HUVEC) that were exposed to the pro-atherosclerotic stressors homocysteine or oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL). Methods HUVEC were incubated with physiological concentrations of homocysteine or ox-LDL in the absence and presence of genistein at concentrations that can be reached in human plasma by a diet rich in soy products (2.5 muM) or by pharmacological intervention ( 25 muM). Proteins from HUVEC were separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and those that showed altered expression level upon genistein treatment were identified by peptide mass fingerprints derived from tryptic digests of the protein spots. Results Several proteins were found to be differentially affected by genistein. The most interesting proteins that were potently decreased by homocysteine treatment were annexin V and lamin A. Annexin V is an antithrombotic molecule and mutations in nuclear lamin A have been found to result in perturbations of plasma lipids associated with hypertension. Genistein at low and high concentrations reversed the stressor-induced decrease of these anti-atherogenic proteins. Ox-LDL treatment of HUVEC resulted in an increase in ubiquitin conjugating enzyme 12, a protein involved in foam cell formation. Treatment with genistein at both doses reversed this effect. Conclusions Proteome analysis allows the identification of potential interactions of dietary components in the molecular process of atherosclerosis and consequently provides a powerful tool to define biomarkers of response.

Control of a Population of Norway Rats Resistant to Anticoagulant Rodenticides

For the first time, it has been unequivocally shown that multiple-feed second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides were ineffective against a population of rats in N.W. Berkshire, UK because of an unusually high prevalence and high degree of resistance. Use of the non-anticoagulant rodenticide calciferol led to a substantial reduction in the population, although primary poisoning of small birds appeared to be greater than with anticoagulant baits. There was strong evidence that many of the surviving rats had developed an aversion towards calciferol-treated bait. A reduction in the degree of anticoagulant resistance in the population was evident after a period of 17 months without anticoagulant use. The long-term strategy to manage the resistant population should integrate non-anticoagulant and anticoagulant rodenticide use to take advantage of possible pleiotropic costs of resistance.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

Emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in the native Campylobacter coli population of pigs exposed to enrofloxacin

Objective: The effect of a single 5 day enrofloxacin treatment on the native Campylobacter coli population in conventionally weaned 5-week-old pigs was investigated. Materials: Twelve pigs were split into two groups of six: one group was treated with a therapeutic dose (15 mg/pig/day) of enrofloxacin and the other remained untreated to act as the control. Campylobacter coli were isolated from faecal samples and tested for ciprofloxacin resistance by measuring MIC values. Mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of the gyrA gene of resistant isolates were identified by sequencing and denaturing HPLC. Levels of enrofloxacin and its primary metabolite ciprofloxacin in the pig faeces were also measured by HPLC. Results: No quinolone-resistant C. coli (n = 867) were detected in any of the pigs prior to treatment, indicating <0.1% resistance in the group. Resistant C. coli were isolated from pigs for up to 35 days after treatment with a therapeutic dose. These resistant C. coli had MIC values of 128 mg/L and 8-16 mg/L for nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, respectively, and the same single point mutation causing a Thr-86 to Ile substitution in the QRDR was identified in each. The concentration of enrofloxacin in the pig faeces was 2-4 mug/g faeces for the duration of the 5 day therapeutic treatment and was detected up to 10 days post-treatment. Ciprofloxacin was also measured and peaked at 0.6 mug/g faeces in the treated group. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that a single course of enrofloxacin treatment contributes directly to the emergence and persistence of fluoroquinolone resistance in C. coli.

Palaeobiology of the medieval population of Albano (Rome, Italy): a combined morphological and biomolecular approach

Recent years have seen increased interest in skeletal populations from the Imperial Roman Age in Italy, but much less is known about diet and standards of living in the subsequent medieval period. To fill this gap, we conducted a morphological analysis of human remains from Albano, an Italian town near Rome, as well as a stable isotope analysis of bone collagen to reconstruct diet. The sample was recovered from a Medieval cemetery (1040–1220 cal. yr. BP) located in the gardens of the historical Palazzo Doria Pamphili in Albano. A minimum number of 40 individuals (31 adults and 9 sub-adults) were examined using standard methods. Though the general health status of the population was good, signs of cribra orbitalia and diffuse enthesopathies were noted during the morphological examination. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of the bone collagen from 24 adult humans and three faunal bones indicate that the diet of the population may be described as predominantly terrestrial and C3-plant based although the data for some of the individuals suggest a modest consumption of C4-(millet) based or aquatic proteins. No evidence of significant dietary differences between the sexes was found. The comparison of the isotope data from Albano with those from populations recovered in the same region is consistent with a shift from a terrestrial, possibly plant foods-dominated subsistence in the Early Middle Ages to a diet with a higher contribution from animal proteins, both terrestrial and aquatic, in the Later Middle Ages.

Snakebite and its socio-economic impact on the rural population of Tamil Nadu, India

BACKGROUND: Snakebite represents a significant health issue worldwide, affecting several million people each year with as many as 95,000 deaths. India is considered to be the country most affected, but much remains unknown about snakebite incidence in this country, its socio-economic impact and how snakebite management could be improved. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a study within rural villages in Tamil Nadu, India, which combines a household survey (28,494 people) of snakebite incidence with a more detailed survey of victims in order to understand the health and socio-economic effects of the bite, the treatments obtained and their views about future improvements. Our survey suggests that snakebite incidence is higher than previously reported. 3.9% of those surveyed had suffered from snakebite and the number of deaths corresponds to 0.45% of the population. The socio-economic impact of this is very considerable in terms of the treatment costs and the long-term effects on the health and ability of survivors to work. To reduce this, the victims recommended improvements to the accessibility and affordability of antivenom treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebite has a considerable and disproportionate impact on rural populations, particularly in South Asia. This study provides an incentive for researchers and the public to work together to reduce the incidence and improve the outcomes for snake bite victims and their families.

Using Africa’s protected area network to estimate the global population of a threatened and declining species: a case study of the critically endangered White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis

The White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (WhV) is uncommon and largely restricted to protected areas across its range in sub-Saharan Africa. We used the World Database on Protected Areas to identify protected areas (PAs) likely to contain White-headed Vultures. Vulture occurrence on road transects in Southern, East, and West Africa was adjusted to nests per km2 using data from areas with known numbers of nests and corresponding road transect data. Nest density was used to calculate the number of WhV nests within identified PAs and from there extrapolated to estimate the global population. Across a fragmented range, 400 PAs are estimated to contain 1893 WhV nests. Eastern Africa is estimated to contain 721 nests, Central Africa 548 nests, Southern Africa 468 nests, and West Africa 156 nests. Including immature and nonbreeding birds, and accounting for data deficient PAs, the estimated global population is 5475 - 5493 birds. The identified distribution highlights are alarming: over 78% (n = 313) of identified PAs contain fewer than five nests. A further 17% (n = 68) of PAs contain 5 - 20 nests and 4% (n = 14) of identified PAs are estimated to contain >20 nests. Just 1% (n = 5) of PAs are estimated to contain >40 nests; none is located in West Africa. Whilst ranging behavior of WhVs is currently unknown, 35% of PAs large enough to hold >20 nests are isolated by more than 100 km from other PAs. Spatially discrete and unpredictable mortality events such as poisoning pose major threats to small localized vulture populations and will accelerate ongoing local extinctions. Apart from reducing the threat of poisoning events, conservation actions promoting linkages between protected areas should be pursued. Identifying potential areas for assisted re-establishment via translocation offers the potential to expand the range of this species and alleviate risk.