Buyer–seller interaction in experimental spatial markets

We report results from experimental spatial markets with endogenous buyer location on a discrete version of Hotelling's linear city. Buyer locations favor more often the hypothesis of transportation cost minimization than that of strategic location aimed at increasing price competition between sellers. However, the latter of the two hypotheses receives systematic support too. Differentiation by seller-subjects is substantially less than the theory would predict for the specific framework used. Our results suggest that location strategies adopted by subjects can be seen as a rational process favoring conservative product design and spatial agglomeration of economic activities.

Directed search with real options

While search is normally modelled by economists purely in terms of decisions over making observations, this paper models it as a process in which information is gained through feedback from innovatory product launches. The information gained can then be used to decide whether to exercise real options. In the model the initial decisions involve a product design and the scale of production capacity. There are then real options to change these factors based on what is learned. The case of launching product variants in parallel is also considered. Under ‘true’ uncertainty, the model can be seen in terms of heuristic decision-making based on subjective beliefs with limited foresight. Search costs, the values of the real options, beliefs, and the cost of capital are all shown to be significant in determining the search path.

Efficient and accurate experimental design for enzyme kinetics: Bayesian studies reveal a systematic approach

In areas such as drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology research, acquiring details about the kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. We demonstrate that a Bayesian approach (the use of prior knowledge) can produce major gains quantifiable in terms of information, productivity and accuracy of each experiment. Developing the use of Bayesian Utility functions, we have used a systematic method to identify the optimum experimental designs for a number of kinetic model data sets. This has enabled the identification of trends between kinetic model types, sets of design rules and the key conclusion that such designs should be based on some prior knowledge of K-M and/or the kinetic model. We suggest an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of the design such as the substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. The final design collects data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

COMPUTER assisted technologies to enhance CONCURRENce in building DESIGN

Modern organisms are adapted to a wide variety of habitats and lifestyles. The processes of evolution have led to complex, interdependent, well-designed mechanisms of todays world and this research challenge is to transpose these innovative solutions to resolve problems in the context of architectural design practice, e.g., to relate design by nature with design by human. In a design by human environment, design synthesis can be performed with the use of rapid prototyping techniques that will enable to transform almost instantaneously any 2D design representation into a physical three-dimensional model, through a rapid prototyping printer machine. Rapid prototyping processes add layers of material one on top of another until a complete model is built and an analogy can be established with design by nature where the natural lay down of earth layers shapes the earth surface, a natural process occurring repeatedly over long periods of time. Concurrence in design will particularly benefit from rapid prototyping techniques, as the prime purpose of physical prototyping is to promptly assist iterative design, enabling design participants to work with a three-dimensional hardcopy and use it for the validation of their design-ideas. Concurrent design is a systematic approach aiming to facilitate the simultaneous involvment and commitment of all participants in the building design process, enabling both an effective reduction of time and costs at the design phase and a quality improvement of the design product. This paper presents the results of an exploratory survey investigating both how computer-aided design systems help designers to fully define the shape of their design-ideas and the extent of the application of rapid prototyping technologies coupled with Internet facilities by design practice. The findings suggest that design practitioners recognize that these technologies can greatly enhance concurrence in design, though acknowledging a lack of knowledge in relation to the issue of rapid prototyping.

Evidence of systematic approaches to innovation in facilities management

Purpose – This paper seeks to examine the nature of “service innovation” in the facilities management (FM) context. It reviews recent thinking on “service innovation” as distinct from “product innovation”. Applying these contemporary perspectives it describes UK case studies of 11 innovations in different FM organisations. These include both in-house client-based innovations and third-party innovations. Design/methodology/approach – The study described in the paper encompasses 11 different innovations that constitute a mix of process, product and practice innovations. All of the innovations stem from UK-based organisations that were subject to in-depth interviews regarding the identification, screening, commitment of resources and implementation of the selected innovations. Findings – The research suggested that service innovation is highly active in the UK FM sector. However, the process of innovation rarely followed a common formalized path. Generally, the innovations were one-shot commitments at the early stage. None of the innovations studied failed to proceed to full adoption stage. This was either due to the reluctance of participating organisations to volunteer “tested but unsuccessful” innovations or the absence of any trial methods that might have exposed an innovations shortcomings. Research limitations/implications – The selection of innovations was restricted to the UK context. Moreover, the choice of innovations was partly determined by the innovating organisation. This selection process appeared to emphasise “one-shot” high profile technological innovations, typically associated with software. This may have been at the expense of less resource intensive, bottom-up innovations. Practical implications – This paper suggests that there is a role for “research and innovation” teams within larger FM organisations, whether they are client-based or third-party. Central to this philosophy is an approach that is open to the possibility of failure. The innovations studied were risk averse with a firm commitment to proceed at the early stage. Originality/value – This paper introduces new thinking on the subject of “service innovation” to the context of FM. It presents research and development as a planned solution to innovation. This approach will enable service organisations to fully test and exploit service innovations.

Variance estimation for systematic sampling from deliberately ordered populations

The systematic sampling (SYS) design (Madow and Madow, 1944) is widely used by statistical offices due to its simplicity and efficiency (e.g., Iachan, 1982). But it suffers from a serious defect, namely, that it is impossible to unbiasedly estimate the sampling variance (Iachan, 1982) and usual variance estimators (Yates and Grundy, 1953) are inadequate and can overestimate the variance significantly (Särndal et al., 1992). We propose a novel variance estimator which is less biased and that can be implemented with any given population order. We will justify this estimator theoretically and with a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Strategies to prevent falls and fractures in hospitals and care homes and effect of cognitive impairment: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the evidence for strategies to prevent falls or fractures in residents in care homes and hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of dementia and cognitive impairment. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analyses of studies grouped by intervention and setting (hospital or care home). Meta-regression to investigate the effects of dementia and of study quality and design. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychInfo, Cochrane Database, Clinical Trials Register, and hand searching of references from reviews and guidelines to January 2005. RESULTS: 1207 references were identified, including 115 systematic reviews, expert reviews, or guidelines. Of the 92 full papers inspected, 43 were included. Meta-analysis for multifaceted interventions in hospital (13 studies) showed a rate ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.997) for falls but no significant effect on the number of fallers or fractures. For hip protectors in care homes (11 studies) the rate ratio for hip fractures was 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98), but there was no significant effect on falls and not enough studies on fallers. For all other interventions (multifaceted interventions in care homes; removal of physical restraints in either setting; fall alarm devices in either setting; exercise in care homes; calcium/vitamin D in care homes; changes in the physical environment in either setting; medication review in hospital) meta-analysis was either unsuitable because of insufficient studies or showed no significant effect on falls, fallers, or fractures, despite strongly positive results in some individual studies. Meta-regression showed no significant association between effect size and prevalence of dementia or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that multifaceted interventions in hospital reduce the number of falls and that use of hip protectors in care homes prevents hip fractures. There is insufficient evidence, however, for the effectiveness of other single interventions in hospitals or care homes or multifaceted interventions in care homes.

Efficient and cost-effective experimental determination of kinetic constants and data: the success of a Bayesian systematic approach to drug transport, receptor binding, continuous culture and cell transport kinetics

Details about the parameters of kinetic systems are crucial for progress in both medical and industrial research, including drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology applications. Such details must be collected by a series of kinetic experiments and investigations. The correct design of the experiment is essential to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. We have developed a systematic and iterative Bayesian method and sets of rules for the design of enzyme kinetic experiments. Our method selects the optimum design to collect data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. The rules select features of the design such as the substrate range and the number of measurements. We show here that this method can be directly applied to the study of other important kinetic systems, including drug transport, receptor binding, microbial culture and cell transport kinetics. It is possible to reduce the errors in the estimated parameters and, most importantly, increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness by reducing the necessary amount of experiments and data points measured. (C) 2003 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aldose reductase and the importance of experimental design

Kinetic studies on the AR (aldose reductase) protein have shown that it does not behave as a classical enzyme in relation to ring aldose sugars. As with non-enzymatic glycation reactions, there is probably a free radical element involved derived from monosaccharide autoxidation. in the case of AR, there is free radical oxidation of NADPH by autoxidizing monosaccharides, which is enhanced in the presence of the NADPH-binding protein. Thus any assay for AR based on the oxidation of NADPH in the presence of autoxidizing monosaccharides is invalid, and tissue AR measurements based on this method are also invalid, and should be reassessed. AR exhibits broad specificity for both hydrophilic and hydrophobic aldehydes that suggests that the protein may be involved in detoxification. The last thing we would want to do is to inhibit it. ARIs (AR inhibitors) have a number of actions in the cell which are not specific, and which do not involve them binding to AR. These include peroxy-radical scavenging and effects of metal ion chelation. The AR/ARI story emphasizes the importance of correct experimental design in all biocatalytic experiments. Developing the use of Bayesian utility functions, we have used a systematic method to identify the optimum experimental designs for a number of kinetic model data sets. This has led to the identification of trends between kinetic model types, sets of design rules and the key conclusion that such designs should be based on some prior knowledge of K-m and/or the kinetic model. We suggest an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of the design such as the substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. The final design collects data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimizes the error in the parameters estimated, and is suitable for simple or complex steady-state models.

Design and theoretical study of nickel catalysts for syndiotactic polyolefins

A nickel catalyst was modeled with ligand L-2, [ NH = CH-CH = CH-O](-), which should have potential use as a syndiotactic polyolefin catalyst, and the reaction mechanism was studied by theoretical calculations using the density functional method at the B3LYP/ LANL2MB level. The mechanism involves the formation of the intermediate [(NiLMe)-Me-2](+), in which the metal occuples a T-shaped geometry. - This intermediate has two possible structures with the methyl group trans either to the oxygen or to the nitrogen atom of L-2. The results show that both structures can lead to the desired product via similar reaction paths, A and B. Thus, the polymerization could be considered as taking place either with the alkyl group occupying the position trans to the Ni-O or trans to the Ni-N bond in the catalyst. The polymerization process thus favors the catalysis of syndiotactic polyolefins. The syndiotactic synthesis effects could also be enhanced by variations in the ligand substituents. From energy considerations, we can conclude that it is more favorable for the methyl group to occupy the trans-O position to form a complex than to occupy the trans-N position. From bond length considerations, it is also more favoured for ethene to occupy the trans-O position than to occupy the trans-N position.

Using artefacts to mediate understanding in design conversations

The journey from the concept of a building to the actual built form is mediated with the use of various artefacts, such as drawings, product samples and models. These artefacts are produced for different purposes and for people with different levels of understanding of the design and construction processes. This paper studies design practice as it occurs naturally in a real-world situation by observing the conversations that surround the use of artefacts at the early stages of a building's design. Drawing on ethnographic data, insights are given into how the use of artefacts can reveal a participant's understanding of the scheme. The appropriateness of the method of conversation analysis to reveal the users' understanding of a scheme is explored by observing spoken micro-interactional behaviours. It is shown that the users' understanding of the design was developed in the conversations around the use of artefacts, as well as the knowledge that is embedded in the artefacts themselves. The users' confidence in the appearance of the building was considered to be gained in conversation, rather than the ability of the artefacts to represent a future reality.

Childhood obesity: should primary school children be routinely screened? A systematic review and discussion of the evidence

Background: Population monitoring has been introduced in UK primary schools in an effort to track the growing obesity epidemic. It has been argued that parents should be informed of their child's results, but is there evidence that moving from monitoring to screening would be effective? We describe what is known about the effectiveness of monitoring and screening for overweight and obesity in primary school children and highlight areas where evidence is lacking and research should be prioritised. Design: Systematic review with discussion of evidence gaps and future research. Data sources: Published and unpublished studies ( any language) from electronic databases ( inception to July 2005), clinical experts, Primary Care Trusts and Strategic Health Authorities, and reference lists of retrieved studies. Review methods: We included any study that evaluated measures of overweight and obesity as part of a population-level assessment and excluded studies whose primary outcome measure was prevalence. Results: There were no trials assessing the effectiveness of monitoring or screening for overweight and obesity. Studies focussed on the diagnostic accuracy of measurements. Information on the attitudes of children, parents and health professionals to monitoring was extremely sparse. Conclusions: Our review found a lack of data on the potential impact of population monitoring or screening for obesity and more research is indicated. Identification of effective weight reduction strategies for children and clarification of the role of preventative measures are priorities. It is difficult to see how screening to identify individual children can be justified without effective interventions.

A systematic review of controlled trials of interventions to prevent childhood obesity and overweight: realistic synthesis of the evidence

Background: Preventing childhood overweight and obesity has become a major public health issue in developed and developing countries. Systematic reviews of this topic have not provided practice-relevant guidance because of the generally low quality of research and the heterogeneity of reported effectiveness. Aim: To present practice-relevant guidance on interventions to reduce at least one measure of adiposity in child populations that do or do not contain overweight or obese children. Design: Systematic review of eligible randomized, controlled trials or controlled trials using a novel approach to synthesizing the trial results through application of descriptive epidemiological and realistic evaluation concepts. Eligible trials involved at least 30 participants, lasted at least 12 weeks and involved non-clinical child populations. Results: Twenty-eight eligible trials were identified to 30 April 2006. Eleven trials were effective and 17 were ineffective in reducing adiposity. Blind to outcome, the main factor distinguishing effective from ineffective trials was the provision of moderate to vigorous aerobic physical activity in the former on a relatively 'compulsory' rather than 'voluntary' basis. Conclusions: By using a novel approach to synthesizing trials, a decisive role for the 'compulsory' provision of aerobic physical activity has been demonstrated. Further research is required to identify how such activity can be sustained and transformed into a personally chosen behaviour by children and over the life course. (C) 2007 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.