Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking - A case study

One of the fundamental questions in dynamical meteorology, and one of the basic objectives of GARP, is to determine the predictability of the atmosphere. In the early planning stage and preparation for GARP a number of theoretical and numerical studies were undertaken, indicating that there existed an inherent unpredictability in the atmosphere which even with the most ideal observing system would limit useful weather forecasting to 2-3 weeks.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

A sensitivity analysis of soil moisture retrieval from the t-w microwave emission model

The potential of the τ-ω model for retrieving the volumetric moisture content of bare and vegetated soil from dual polarisation passive microwave data acquired at single and multiple angles is tested. Measurement error and several additional sources of uncertainty will affect the theoretical retrieval accuracy. These include uncertainty in the soil temperature, the vegetation structure and consequently its microwave singlescattering albedo, and uncertainty in soil microwave emissivity based on its roughness. To test the effects of these uncertainties for simple homogeneous scenes, we attempt to retrieve soil moisture from a number of simulated microwave brightness temperature datasets generated using the τ-ω model. The uncertainties for each influence are estimated and applied to curves generated for typical scenarios, and an inverse model used to retrieve the soil moisture content, vegetation optical depth and soil temperature. The effect of each influence on the theoretical soil moisture retrieval limit is explored, the likelihood of each sensor configuration meeting user requirements is assessed, and the most effective means of improving moisture retrieval indicated.

The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Exploring the applications of a pulsating jet hydrodynamic modulated voltammetric (HMV) system - electrochemistry of nanostructured Pt electrodes and trace analysis

The electrochemistry of nanostructured electrodes is investigated using hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV). Here a liquid crystal templating process is used to produce a platinum modified electrode with a relatively high surface area (Roughness factor, Rf = 42.4). The electroreduction of molecular oxygen at a nanostructured platinum surface is used to demonstrate the ability of HMV to discriminate between Faradaic and non-Faradaic electrode reactions. The HMV approach shows that the reduction of molecular oxygen shows considerable hysteresis correlating with the formation and stripping of oxide species at the platinum surface. Without the HMV analysis it is difficult to discern the same detail under the conditions employed. In addition the detection limit of the apparatus is explored and shown, under ideal conditions, to be of the order of 45 nmol dm(-3) employing [Fe(CN)(6)](4-) as a test species. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of alkylpyrazine formation in a potato model system containing added glycine

The use of glycine to limit acrylamide formation during the heating of a potato model system was also found to alter the relative proportions of alkylpyrazines. The addition of glycine increased the quantities of several alkylpyrazines, and labeling studies using [2-C-13]glycine showed that those alkylpyrazines which increased in the presence of glycine had at least one C-13-labeled methyl substituent derived from glycine. The distribution of C-13 within the pyrazines suggested two pathways by which glycine, and other amino acids, participate in alkylpyrazine formation, and showed the relative contribution of each pathway. Alkylpyrazines that involve glycine in both formation pathways displayed the largest relative increases with glycine addition. The study provided an insight into the sensitivity of alkylpyrazine formation to the amino acid composition in a heated food and demonstrated the importance of those amino acids that are able to contribute an alkyl substituent. This may aid in estimating the impact of amino acid addition on pyrazine formation, when amino acids are added to foods for acrylamide mitigation.

Challenge testing the lactoperoxidase system against a range of bacteria using different activation agents

Lactoperoxidase (LP) exerts antimicrobial effects in combination with H2O2 and either thiocyanate (SCN-) or a halide (e. g., I-). Garlic extract in the presence of ethanol has also been used to activate the LP system. This study aimed to determine the effects of 3 LP activation systems (LP+SCN-+H2O2; LP+I-+H2O2; LP + garlic extract + ethanol) on the growth and activity of 3 test organisms (Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Bacillus cereus). Sterilized milk was used as the reaction medium, and the growth pattern of the organisms and a range of keeping quality (KQ) indicators (pH, titratable acidity, ethanol stability, clot on boiling) were monitored during storage at the respective optimum growth temperature for each organism. The LP+I-+H2O2 system reduced bacterial counts below the detection limit shortly after treatment for all 3 organisms, and no bacteria could be detected for the duration of the experiment (35 to 55 h). The KQ data confirmed that the milk remained unspoiled at the end of the experiments. The LP + garlic extract + ethanol system, on the other hand, had no effect on the growth or KQ with P. aeruginosa, but showed a small retardation of growth of the other 2 organisms, accompanied by small increases (5 to 10 h) in KQ. The effects of the LP+SCN-+H2O2 system were intermediate between those of the other 2 systems and differed between organisms. With P. aeruginosa, the system exerted total inhibition within 10 h of incubation, but the bacteria regained viability after a further 5 h, following a logarithmic growth curve. This was reflected in the KQ indicators, which implied an extension of 15 h. With the other 2 bacterial species, LP+SCN-+H2O2 exerted an obvious inhibitory effect, giving a lag phase in the growth curve of 5 to 10 h and KQ extension of 10 to 15 h. When used in combination, I- and SCN- displayed negative synergy.

Apodisation, denoising and system identification techniques for THz transients in the wavelet domain

This work describes the use of a quadratic programming optimization procedure for designing asymmetric apodization windows to de-noise THz transient interferograms and compares these results to those obtained when wavelet signal processing algorithms are adopted. A systems identification technique in the wavelet domain is also proposed for the estimation of the complex insertion loss function. The proposed techniques can enhance the frequency dependent dynamic range of an experiment and should be of particular interest to the THz imaging and tomography community. Future advances in THz sources and detectors are likely to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the recorded THz transients and high quality apodization techniques will become more important, and may set the limit on the achievable accuracy of the deduced spectrum.

Retrievals of thick cloud optical depth from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) by calibration of solar background signal

Laser beams emitted from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), as well as other spaceborne laser instruments, can only penetrate clouds to a limit of a few optical depths. As a result, only optical depths of thinner clouds (< about 3 for GLAS) are retrieved from the reflected lidar signal. This paper presents a comprehensive study of possible retrievals of optical depth of thick clouds using solar background light and treating GLAS as a solar radiometer. To do so one must first calibrate the reflected solar radiation received by the photon-counting detectors of the GLAS 532-nm channel, the primary channel for atmospheric products. Solar background radiation is regarded as a noise to be subtracted in the retrieval process of the lidar products. However, once calibrated, it becomes a signal that can be used in studying the properties of optically thick clouds. In this paper, three calibration methods are presented: (i) calibration with coincident airborne and GLAS observations, (ii) calibration with coincident Geostationary Opera- tional Environmental Satellite (GOES) and GLAS observations of deep convective clouds, and (iii) cali- bration from first principles using optical depth of thin water clouds over ocean retrieved by GLAS active remote sensing. Results from the three methods agree well with each other. Cloud optical depth (COD) is retrieved from the calibrated solar background signal using a one-channel retrieval. Comparison with COD retrieved from GOES during GLAS overpasses shows that the average difference between the two retriev- als is 24%. As an example, the COD values retrieved from GLAS solar background are illustrated for a marine stratocumulus cloud field that is too thick to be penetrated by the GLAS laser. Based on this study, optical depths for thick clouds will be provided as a supplementary product to the existing operational GLAS cloud products in future GLAS data releases.

Spectral design and verification of HIRDLS filters and antireflection coatings using an integrated system performance approach

The HIRDLS instrument contains 21 spectral channels spanning a wavelength range from 6 to 18mm. For each of these channels the spectral bandwidth and position are isolated by an interference bandpass filter at 301K placed at an intermediate focal plane of the instrument. A second filter cooled to 65K positioned at the same wavelength but designed with a wider bandwidth is placed directly in front of each cooled detector element to reduce stray radiation from internally reflected in-band signals, and to improve the out-of-band blocking. This paper describes the process of determining the spectral requirements for the two bandpass filters and the antireflection coatings used on the lenses and dewar window of the instrument. This process uses a system throughput performance approach taking the instrument spectral specification as a target. It takes into account the spectral characteristics of the transmissive optical materials, the relative spectral response of the detectors, thermal emission from the instrument, and the predicted atmospheric signal to determine the radiance profile for each channel. Using this design approach an optimal design for the filters can be achieved, minimising the number of layers to improve the in-band transmission and to aid manufacture. The use of this design method also permits the instrument spectral performance to be verified using the measured response from manufactured components. The spectral calculations for an example channel are discussed, together with the spreadsheet calculation method. All the contributions made by the spectrally active components to the resulting instrument channel throughput are identified and presented.

The influence of ultraviolet radiation on growth, photosynthesis and phenolic levels of green and red lettuce: potential for exploiting effects of ultraviolet radiation in a production system

Studies have shown that natural ultraviolet (UV) radiation increases secondary products such as phenolics but can significantly inhibit biomass accumulation in lettuce plants. In the work presented here, the effect of UV radiation on phenolic concentration and biomass accumulation was assessed in relation to photosynthetic performance in red and green lettuce types. Lettuce plants in polythene clad tunnels were exposed to either ambient (UV transparent film) or UV-free conditions (UV blocking film). The study tested whether growth reduction in lettuce plants exposed to natural UV radiation is because of inhibition of photosynthesis by direct damage to the photosynthetic apparatus or by internal shading by anthocyanins. Ambient levels of UV radiation did not limit the efficiency of photosynthesis suggesting that phenolic compounds may effectively protect the photosynthetic apparatus. Growth inhibition does, however, occur in red lettuce and could be explained by the high metabolic cost of phenolic compounds for UV protection. From a commercial perspective, UV transparent and UV blocking films offer opportunities because, in combination, they could increase plant quality as well as productivity. Growing plants continuously under a UV blocking film, and then 6 days before the final harvest transferring them to a UV transparent film, showed that high yields and high phytochemical content can be achieved complementarily.

Random-walk-based characterisation of multiple access interference in a DS/SSMA system

The problem of calculating the probability of error in a DS/SSMA system has been extensively studied for more than two decades. When random sequences are employed some conditioning must be done before the application of the central limit theorem is attempted, leading to a Gaussian distribution. The authors seek to characterise the multiple access interference as a random-walk with a random number of steps, for random and deterministic sequences. Using results from random-walk theory, they model the interference as a K-distributed random variable and use it to calculate the probability of error in the form of a series, for a DS/SSMA system with a coherent correlation receiver and BPSK modulation under Gaussian noise. The asymptotic properties of the proposed distribution agree with other analyses. This is, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the first attempt to propose a non-Gaussian distribution for the interference. The modelling can be extended to consider multipath fading and general modulation

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system

The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate. During past periods of climate change, vegetation cover and interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere changed within decades. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemistry to anthropogenically forced climate change and air pollution. Although interactions between the carbon cycle and climate have been a central focus, other biogeochemical feedbacks could be as important in modulating future climate change. Total positive radiative forcings resulting from feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are estimated to reach up to 0.9 or 1.5 W m−2 K−1 towards the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the extent to which interactions with the nitrogen cycle stimulate or limit carbon sequestration. This substantially reduces and potentially even eliminates the cooling effect owing to carbon dioxide fertilization of the terrestrial biota. The overall magnitude of the biogeochemical feedbacks could potentially be similar to that of feedbacks in the physical climate system, but there are large uncertainties in the magnitude of individual estimates and in accounting for synergies between these effects.