Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of vegetation on the local climate and hydrology in the tropics: sensitivity to soil parameters

Land use change with accompanying major modifications to the vegetation cover is widespread in the tropics, due to increasing demands for agricultural land, and may have significant impacts on the climate. This study investigates (1) the influence of vegetation on the local climate in the tropics; (2) how that influence varies from region to region; and (3) how the sensitivity of the local climate to vegetation, and hence land use change, depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. A series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre atmospheric model, HadAM3, are described in which the influence of vegetation in the tropics is assessed by comparing the results of integrations with and without tropical vegetation. The sensitivity of the results to the soil characteristics is then explored by repeating the experiments with a differing, but equally valid, description of soil hydraulic parameters. The results have shown that vegetation has a significant moderating effect on the climate throughout the tropics by cooling the surface through enhanced latent heat fluxes. The influence of vegetation is, however, seasonally dependent, with much greater impacts during the dry season when the availability of surface moisture is limited. Furthermore, there are significant regional variations both in terms of the magnitude of the cooling and in the response of the precipitation. Not all regions show a feedback of vegetation on the local precipitation; this result has been related both to vegetation type and to the prevailing meteorological conditions. An important finding has been the sensitivity of the results to the specification of the soil hydraulic parameters. The introduction of more freely draining soils has changed the soil-moisture contents of the control, vegetated system and has reduced, significantly, the climate sensitivity to vegetation and by implication, land use change. Changes to the soil parameters have also had an impact on the soil hydrology and its interaction with vegetation, by altering the partitioning between fast and slow runoff processes. These results raise important questions about the representation of highly heterogeneous soil characteristics in climate models, as well as the potential influence of land use change on the soil characteristics themselves.

Numerical modelling of the energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea

This paper will introduce the Baltex research programme and summarize associated numerical modelling work which has been undertaken during the last five years. The research has broadly managed to clarify the main mechanisms determining the water and energy cycle in the Baltic region, such as the strong dependence upon the large scale atmospheric circulation. It has further been shown that the Baltic Sea has a positive water balance, albeit with large interannual variations. The focus on the modelling studies has been the use of limited area models at ultra-high resolution driven by boundary conditions from global models or from reanalysis data sets. The programme has further initiated a comprehensive integration of atmospheric, land surface and hydrological modelling incorporating snow, sea ice and special lake models. Other aspects of the programme include process studies such as the role of deep convection, air sea interaction and the handling of land surface moisture. Studies have also been undertaken to investigate synoptic and sub-synoptic events over the Baltic region, thus exploring the role of transient weather systems for the hydrological cycle. A special aspect has been the strong interests and commitments of the meteorological and hydrological services because of the potentially large societal interests of operational applications of the research. As a result of this interests special attention has been put on data-assimilation aspects and the use of new types of data such as SSM/I, GPS-measurements and digital radar. A series of high resolution data sets are being produced. One of those, a 1/6 degree daily precipitation climatology for the years 1996–1999, is such a unique contribution. The specific research achievements to be presented in this volume of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics is the result of a cooperative venture between 11 European research groups supported under the EU-Framework programmes.

Effect of drainage and wildfire on peat hydrophysical properties

Consecutive multiple disturbances to northern peatlands can dramatically impact peat hydrophysical properties. We examine the impact of a double disturbance (drainage and wildfire) on the hydrophysical and moisture retention properties of peat, a key regulator of peatland ecohydrological resilience, and compare this with the impact to each individual disturbance (drainage and wildfire). The compound effect of drainage and wildfire resulted in a shift of the surface datum down the peat profile, revealing denser peat. Less-dense near-surface peats that regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture content, both favourable to Sphagnum recolonization, were lost. At a drained peatland that was then subject to wildfire, peat bulk density increased by 14.1%, von Post humification class increased by two categories and water retention increased by 15.6%, compared with an adjacent burned but undrained (single disturbance) portion of the fen. We discuss the key hydrophysical metrics of peatland vulnerability and outline how they are affected by the isolated impacts of drainage and wildfire, as well as their combined effects. We demonstrate that multiple peatland disturbances have likely led to an increase in hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery, which may impact peatland ecohydrological resilience.

Degradation of atrazine and isoproturon in surface and sub-surface soil materials undergoing different moisture and aeration conditions

The influence of different moisture and aeration conditions on the degradation of atrazine and isoproturon was investigated in environmental samples aseptically collected from surface and sub-surface zones of agricultural land. The materials were maintained at two moisture contents corresponding to just above field capacity or 90% of field capacity. Another two groups of samples were adjusted with water to above field capacity, and, at zero time, exposed to drying-rewetting cycles. Atrazine was more persistent (t(1/2) = 22-3S days) than isoproturon (t(1/2) = 5-17 days) in samples maintained at constant moisture conditions. The rate of degradation for both herbicides was higher in samples maintained at a moisture content of 90% of field capacity than in samples with higher moisture contents. The reduction in moisture content in samples undergoing desiccation from above field capacity to much lower than field capacity enhanced the degradation of isoproturon (t(1/2) = 9-12 days) but reduced the rate of atrazine degradation (t(1/2) = 23-35-days). This demonstrates the variability between different micro-organisms in their susceptibility to desiccation. Under anaerobic conditions generated in anaerobic jars, atrazine degraded much more rapidly than isoproturon in materials taken from three soil profiles (0-250 cm depth). It is suggested that some specific micro-organisms are able to survive and degrade herbicide under severe conditions of desiccation. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development.

Effect of cutting time, temperature and calcium on curd moisture, whey fat loses and curd yield by response surface methodology

Response surface methodology was used to study the effect of temperature, cutting time, and calcium chloride addition level on curd moisture content, whey fat losses, and curd yield. Coagulation and syneresis were continuously monitored using 2 optical sensors detecting light backscatter. The effect of the factors on the sensors’ response was also examined. Retention of fat during cheese making was found to be a function of cutting time and temperature, whereas curd yield was found to be a function of those 2 factors and the level of calcium chloride addition. The main effect of temperature on curd moisture was to increase the rate at which whey was expelled. Temperature and calcium chloride addition level were also found to affect the light backscatter profile during coagulation whereas the light backscatter profile during syneresis was a function of temperature and cutting time. The results of this study suggest that there is an optimum firmness at which the gel should be cut to achieve maximum retention of fat and an optimum curd moisture content to maximize product yield and quality. It was determined that to maximize curd yield and quality, it is necessary to maximize firmness while avoiding rapid coarsening of the gel network and microsyneresis. These results could contribute to the optimization of the cheese-making process.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

The effects of scene heterogeneity on soil moisture retrieval from passive microwave data

The s–x model of microwave emission from soil and vegetation layers is widely used to estimate soil moisture content from passive microwave observations. Its application to prospective satellite-based observations aggregating several thousand square kilometres requires understanding of the effects of scene heterogeneity. The effects of heterogeneity in soil surface roughness, soil moisture, water area and vegetation density on the retrieval of soil moisture from simulated single- and multi-angle observing systems were tested. Uncertainty in water area proved the most serious problem for both systems, causing errors of a few percent in soil moisture retrieval. Single-angle retrieval was largely unaffected by the other factors studied here. Multiple-angle retrievals errors around one percent arose from heterogeneity in either soil roughness or soil moisture. Errors of a few percent were caused by vegetation heterogeneity. A simple extension of the model vegetation representation was shown to reduce this error substantially for scenes containing a range of vegetation types.

Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Nino Southern Oscillation case study

The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997–1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Effects of sub-pixel heterogeneity on the retrieval of soil moisture from passive microwave radiometry

A simple formulation relating the L-band microwave brightness temperature detected by a passive microwave radiometer to the near surface soil moisture was developed using MICRO-SWEAT, a coupled microwave emission model and soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) scheme. This simple model provides an ideal tool with which to explore the impact of sub-pixel heterogeneity on the retrieval of soil moisture from microwave brightness temperatures. In the case of a bare soil pixel, the relationship between apparent emissivity and surface soil moisture is approximately linear, with the clay content of the soil influencing just the intercept of this relationship. It is shown that there are no errors in the retrieved soil moisture from a bare soil pixel that is heterogeneous in soil moisture and texture. However, in the case of a vegetated pixel, the slope of the relationship between apparent emissivity and surface soil moisture decreases with increasing vegetation. Therefore for a pixel that is heterogeneous in vegetation and soil moisture, errors can be introduced into the retrieved soil moisture. Generally, under moderate conditions, the retrieved soil moisture is within 3% of the actual soil moisture. Examples illustrating this discussion use data collected during the Southern Great Plains '97 Experiment (SGP97).