Origins of dry air in the Tropics and Subtropics

The humidity in the dry regions of the tropical and subtropical troposphere has a major impact on the ability of the atmosphere to radiate heat to space. The water vapour content in these regions is determined by their ``origins'', here defined as the last condensation event following air masses. Trajectory simulations are used to investigate such origins using ERA40 data for January 1993. It is shown that 96% of air parcels experience condensation within 24 days and most of the remaining 4% originate in the stratosphere. Dry air masses are shown to experience a net pressure increase since last condensation which is uniform with latitude, while the median time taken for descent is 5 days into the subtropics but exceeds 16 days into the equatorial lower troposphere. The associated rate of decrease in potential temperature is consistent with radiative cooling. The relationship between the drier regions in the tropics and subtropics and the geographical localization of their origin is investigated. Four transport processes are identified to explain these relationships.

Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations

Climate model simulations consistently show that in response to greenhouse gas forcing surface temperatures over land increase more rapidly than over sea. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. We examine 20 models from the IPCC AR4 database. The global land/sea warming ratio varies in the range 1.36–1.84, independent of global mean temperature change. In the presence of increasing radiative forcing, the warming ratio for a single model is fairly constant in time, implying that the land/sea temperature difference increases with time. The warming ratio varies with latitude, with a minimum in equatorial latitudes, and maxima in the subtropics. A simple explanation for these findings is provided, and comparisons are made with observations. For the low-latitude (40°S–40°N) mean, the models suggest a warming ratio of 1.51 ± 0.13, while recent observations suggest a ratio of 1.54 ± 0.09.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate

Key climate feedbacks due to water vapor and clouds rest largely on how relative humidity R changes in a warmer climate, yet this has not been extensively analyzed in models. General circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 archive and several higher resolution atmospheric GCMs examined here generally predict a characteristic pattern of R trend with global temperature that has been reported previously in individual models, including increase around the tropopause, decrease in the tropical upper troposphere, and decrease in midlatitudes. This pattern is very similar to that previously reported for cloud cover in the same GCMs, confirming the role of R in controlling changes in simulated cloud. Comparing different models, the trend in each part of the troposphere is approximately proportional to the upward and/or poleward gradient of R in the present climate. While this suggests that the changes simply reflect a shift of the R pattern upward with the tropopause and poleward with the zonal jets, the drying trend in the subtropics is roughly three times too large to be attributable to shifts of subtropical features, and the subtropical R minima deepen in most models. R trends are correlated with horizontal model resolution, especially outside the tropics, where they show signs of convergence and latitudinal gradients become close to available observations for GCM resolutions near T85 and higher. We argue that much of the systematic change in R can be explained by the local specific humidity having been set (by condensation) in remote regions with different temperature changes, hence the gradients and trends each depend on a model’s ability to resolve moisture transport. Finally, subtropical drying trends predicted from the warming alone fall well short of those observed in recent decades. While this discrepancy supports previous reports of GCMs underestimating Hadley Cell expansion, our results imply that shifts alone are not a sufficient interpretation of changes.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Cloud properties and their seasonal and diurnal variability from TOVS path-B

Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers

Damage from flooding in the winter and fall seasons has been widespread in the United Kingdom (UK) and Western Europe over recent decades. Here we show that winter flood events in the UK are connected to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow ribbons along which a large flux of moisture is transported from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Combining river flow records with rainfall measurements, satellite data and model simulations, we demonstrate that ARs occur simultaneously with the 10 largest winter flood events since 1970 in a range of British river basins, suggesting that ARs are persistently critical in explaining extreme winter flooding in the UK. Understanding the physical processes that determine the persistence of AR events will be of importance in assessing the risk of future flooding over north-western Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

Relaxing the Tropics to an ‘observed’ state: analysis using a simple baroclinic model

The technique of relaxation of the tropical atmosphere towards an analysis in a month-season forecast model has previously been successfully exploited in a number of contexts. Here it is shown that when tropical relaxation is used to investigate the possible origin of the observed anomalies in June–July 2007, a simple dynamical model is able to reproduce the observed component of the pattern of anomalies given by an ensemble of ECMWF forecast runs. Following this result, the simple model is used for a range of experiments on time-scales of relaxation, variables and regions relaxed based on a control model run with equatorial heating in a zonal flow. A theory based on scale analysis for the large-scale tropics is used to interpret the results. Typical relationships between scales are determined from the basic equations, and for a specified diabatic heating a chain of deductions for determining the dependent variables is derived. Different critical time-scales are found for tropical relaxation of different dependent variables to be effective. Vorticity has the longest critical time-scale, typically 1.2 days. For temperature and divergence, the time-scales are 10 hours and 3 hours, respectively. However not all the tropical fields, in particular the vertical motion, are reproduced correctly by the model unless divergence is heavily damped. To obtain the correct extra-tropical fields, it is crucial to have the correct rotational flow in the subtropics to initiate the Rossby wave propagation from there. It is sufficient to relax vorticity or temperature on a time-scale comparable or less than their critical time-scales to obtain this. However if the divergent advection of vorticity is important in the Rossby Wave Source then strong relaxation of divergence is required to accurately represent the tropical forcing of Rossby waves.

A global view of the extratropical tropopause transition layer from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer O3, H2O, and CO

The global behavior of the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) is investigated using O3, H2O, and CO measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) on Canada’s SCISAT-1 satellite obtained between February 2004 and May 2007. The ExTL depth is derived using H2O-O3 and CO-O3 correlations. The ExTL top derived from H2O-O3 shows an increase from roughly 1–1.5 km above the thermal tropopause in the subtropics to 3–4 km (2.5–3.5 km) in the north (south) polar region, implying somewhat weaker tropospherestratosphere- transport in the Southern Hemisphere. The ExTL bottom extends ~1 km below the thermal tropopause, indicating a persistent stratospheric influence on the troposphere at all latitudes. The ExTL top derived from the CO-O3 correlation is lower, at 2 km or ~345 K (1.5 km or ~335 K) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Its annual mean coincides with the relative temperature maximum just above the thermal tropopause. The vertical CO gradient maximizes at the thermal tropopause, indicating a local minimum in mixing within the tropopause region. The seasonal changes in and the scales of the vertical H2O gradients show a similar pattern as the static stability structure of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), which provides observational support for the hypothesis that H2O plays a radiative role in forcing and maintaining the structure of the TIL.

Outgoing longwave radiation due to directly transmitted surface emission

A frequently used diagram summarizing the annual- and global-mean energy budget of the earth and atmosphere indicates that the irradiance reaching the top of the atmosphere from the surface, through the midinfrared atmospheric window, is 40 W m−2; this can be compared to the total outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) of about 235 W m−2. The value of 40 W m−2 was estimated in an ad hoc manner. A more detailed calculation of this component, termed here the surface transmitted irradiance (STI), is presented, using a line-by-line radiation code and 3D climatologies of temperature, humidity, cloudiness, etc. No assumption is made as to the wavelengths at which radiation from the surface can reach the top of the atmosphere. The role of the water vapor continuum is highlighted. In clear skies, if the continuum is excluded, the global- and annual-mean STI is calculated to be about 100 W m−2 with a broad maximum throughout the tropics and subtropics. When the continuum is included, the clear-sky STI is reduced to 66 W m−2, with a distinctly different geographic distribution, with a minimum in the tropics and local peaks over subtropical deserts. The inclusion of clouds reduces the STI to about 22 W m−2. The actual value is likely somewhat smaller due to processes neglected here, and an STI value of 20 W m−2 (with an estimated uncertainty of about ±20%) is suggested to be much more realistic than the previous estimate of 40 W m−2. This indicates that less than one-tenth of the OLR originates directly from the surface.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120°E and between 20/30°N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.