Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and "best practice" for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Active control comparisons: the ideal trial design

This report describes the concept for a clinical trial that uses carbamazepine as the gold-standard active control for a study of newly diagnosed patients. The authors describe an endpoint including efficacy and tolerability, and a stopping rule that uses a series of interim analyses in order to reach a conclusion as efficiently as possible without sacrificing reliability.

Molecular comparisons of the Culex pipiens (L.) complex esterase gene amplicons

The amplification of carboxylesterase genes is a mechanism of organophosphate resistance in Culex mosquitoes. Amplified carboxylesterase genes from an insecticide resistant Culex pipiens strain collected in Cyprus were analysed and compared to other Culex amplified carboxylesterase alleles. A 12 kb section of genomic DNA containing two gene loci coding for carboxylesterase alleles A5 and B5 was cloned and sequenced. A comparison between this amplicon and one from a strain with co-amplified carboxylesterase alleles A2 and B2 revealed a number of differences. The intergenic spacer was 3.7 kb in length in the A5-B5 amplicon (2.7 kb in A2-B2) and contained putative Juan and transposable elements upstream of B5. A fragment of a gene with high homology to aldehyde oxidase was also present immediately downstream of A5. The comparison revealed no differences that would explain the successful spread of the A2-B2 amplicon worldwide whilst the A5-B5 amplicon is restricted to the Mediterranean. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparisons between the in vitro and in vivo efficacies of potential fungal antagonists of Armillaria mellea

Seventeen fungal isolates were tested in vitro as potential antagonists of two isolates of the root rot pathogen, Armillaria mellea. Some of the isolates were also added on mushroom composts with living mycelia to the roots of Armillaria-inoculated potted strawberry plants in the glasshouse to find out if they had the same degree of efficacy against the disease. Dactylium dendroides isolate SP was the most effective in reducing mycelial growth of A. mellea isolate 1 (Am1), followed by Trichoderma harzianum isolate Th2 and T. viride isolate Tv4. Th2, Th22, Tv3 and SP grew extensively over Am1 colonies, disintegrating the rhizomorphs. Isolate Tham1 of T hamatum was the most effective in reducing mycelial growth of A. mellea isolate 2 (Am2), followed by Tv3. Th12, Th22, Tv1, Tv3 and SP inhibited the initiation and growth of rhizomorphs of Am2. Regeneration tests showed that both Am1 and Am2 attacked by Trichoderma isolates and SP were no longer viable. Th23 and SP were almost as effective in vivo as in vitro. But isolate Co of Chaetomium olivaceum, which was ineffective in vitro, was found effective in vivo. Conversely, Th2, which exhibited good antagonistic activity in vitro, performed poorly in vivo. These results show that the in vitro and in vivo efficacies of potential antagonists may not necessarily be closely correlated. Hence, there is a danger that potentially effective isolates may be discarded if decisions are made only on the basis of preliminary screening tests carried out under laboratory conditions.

Artichoke leaf extract reduces symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome and improves quality of life in otherwise healthy volunteers suffering from concomitant dyspepsia: a subset analysis

Objectives: Does artichoke leaf extract (ALE) ameliorate symptoms of Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in otherwise healthy volunteers suffering concomitant dyspepsia? Methods: A subset analysis of a previous dose-ranging, open, postal study, in adults suffering dyspepsia. Two hundred and eight (208) adults were identified post hoc as suffering with IBS. IBS incidence, self-reported usual bowel pattern, and the Nepean Dyspepsia Index (NDI) were compared before and after a 2-month intervention period. Results: There was a significant fall in IBS incidence of 26.4% (p<0.001) after treatment. A significant shift in self-reported usual bowel pattern away from "alternating constipation/diarrhea" toward "normal" (p<0.001) was observed. NDI total symptom score significantly decreased by 41% (p<0.001) after treatment. Similarly, there was a significant 20% improvement in the NDI total quality-of-life (QOL) score in the subset after treatment. Conclusion: This report supports previous findings that ALE ameliorates symptoms of IBS, plus improves health-related QOL.

Anterior cingulate activity and level of cognitive conflict: explicit comparisons

The role of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in attention is a matter of debate. One hypothesis suggests that its role is to monitor response-level conflict, but explicit evidence is somewhat lacking. In this study, the activation of ACC was compared in (a) color and number standard Stroop tasks in which response preparation and interference shared modality (response-level conflict) and (b) color and number matching Stroop tasks in which response preparation and interference did not share modality (non-response-level conflict). In the congruent conditions, there was no effect of task type. In the interference conditions, anterior cingulate activity in the matching tasks was less than that in the standard tasks. These results support the hypothesis that ACC specifically mediates generalized modality-independent selection processes invoked by response competition.