The representation of conditional expectations of non-Gaussian noise

For Wiener spaces conditional expectations and $L^{2}$-martingales w.r.t. the natural filtration have a natural representation in terms of chaos expansion. In this note an extension to larger classes of processes is discussed. In particular, it is pointed out that orthogonality of the chaos expansion is not required.

Sudden stratospheric warmings as noise-induced transitions

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are usually considered to be initiated by planetary wave activity. Here it is asked whether small-scale variability (e.g., related to gravity waves) can lead to SSWs given a certain amount of planetary wave activity that is by itself not sufficient to cause a SSW. A highly vertically truncated version of the Holton–Mass model of stratospheric wave–mean flow interaction, recently proposed by Ruzmaikin et al., is extended to include stochastic forcing. In the deterministic setting, this low-order model exhibits multiple stable equilibria corresponding to the undisturbed vortex and SSW state, respectively. Momentum forcing due to quasi-random gravity wave activity is introduced as an additive noise term in the zonal momentum equation. Two distinct approaches are pursued to study the stochastic system. First, the system, initialized at the undisturbed state, is numerically integrated many times to derive statistics of first passage times of the system undergoing a transition to the SSW state. Second, the Fokker–Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic system is solved numerically to derive the stationary probability density function of the system. Both approaches show that even small to moderate strengths of the stochastic gravity wave forcing can be sufficient to cause a SSW for cases for which the deterministic system would not have predicted a SSW.

Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance to clear-air turbulence forecasting

A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

Spontaneous generation and impact of inertia-gravity waves in a stratified, two-layer shear flow

Inertia-gravity waves exist ubiquitously throughout the stratified parts of the atmosphere and ocean. They are generated by local velocity shears, interactions with topography, and as geostrophic (or spontaneous) adjustment radiation. Relatively little is known about the details of their interaction with the large-scale flow, however. We report on a joint model/laboratory study of a flow in which inertia-gravity waves are generated as spontaneous adjustment radiation by an evolving large-scale mode. We show that their subsequent impact upon the large-scale dynamics is generally small. However, near a potential transition from one large-scale mode to another, in a flow which is simultaneously baroclinically-unstable to more than one mode, the inertia-gravity waves may strongly influence the selection of the mode which actually occurs.

Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

Habituation and dishabituation to speech and office noise

The authors examined whether background noise can be habituated to in the laboratory by using memory for prose tasks in 3 experiments. Experiment 1 showed that background speech can be habituated to after 20 min exposure and that meaning and repetition had no effect on the degree of habituation seen. Experiment 2 showed that office noise without speech can also be habituated to. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that a 5-min period of quiet, but not a change in voice, was sufficient to partially restore the disruptive effects of the background noise previously habituated to. These results are interpreted in light of current theories regarding the effects of background noise and habituation; practical implications for office planning are discussed.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Noise, predation risk compensation and vigilance in the chaffinch Fringilla coelebs

Background noise should in theory hinder detection of auditory cues associated with approaching danger. We tested whether foraging chaffinches Fringilla coelebs responded to background noise by increasing vigilance, and examined whether this was explained by predation risk compensation or by a novel stimulus hypothesis. The former predicts that only inter-scan interval should be modified in the presence of background noise, not vigilance levels generally. This is because noise hampers auditory cue detection and increases perceived predation risk primarily when in the head-down position, and also because previous tests have shown that only interscan interval is correlated with predator detection ability in this system. Chaffinches only modified interscan interval supporting this hypothesis. At the same time they made significantly fewer pecks when feeding during the background noise treatment and so the increased vigilance led to a reduction in intake rate, suggesting that compensating for the increased predation risk could indirectly lead to a fitness cost. Finally, the novel stimulus hypothesis predicts that chaffinches should habituate to the noise, which did not occur within a trial or over 5 subsequent trials. We conclude that auditory cues may be an important component of the trade-off between vigilance and feeding, and discuss possible implications for anti-predation theory and ecological processes

Spontaneous gene flow from rapeseed (Brassica napus) to wild Brassica oleracea

Research on the environmental risks of gene flow from genetically modified ( GM) crops to wild relatives has traditionally emphasized recipients yielding most hybrids. For GM rapeseed ( Brassica napus), interest has centred on the 'frequently hybridizing' Brassica rapa over relatives such as Brassica oleracea, where spontaneous hybrids are unreported in the wild. In two sites, where rapeseed and wild B. oleracea grow together, we used flow cytometry and crop-specific microsatellite markers to identify one triploid F-1 hybrid, together with nine diploid and two near triploid introgressants. Given the newly discovered capacity for spontaneous introgression into B. oleracea, we then surveyed associated flora and fauna to evaluate the capacity of both recipients to harm cohabitant species with acknowledged conservational importance. Only B. oleracea occupies rich communities containing species afforded legislative protection; these include one rare micromoth species that feeds on B. oleracea and warrants further assessment. We conclude that increased attention should now focus on B. oleracea and similar species that yield few crop-hybrids, but possess scope to affect rare or endangered associates.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Spontaneous condensation in DNA-polystyrene-b-poly(l-lysine) polyelectrolyte block copolymer mixtures

We investigated the condensation of calf thymus DNA by amphiphilic polystyrene(m)-b-poly(l-lysine)(n) block copolymers (PSm-b- PLys(n), m, n = degree of polymerization), using small-angle X-ray scattering, polarized optical microscopy and laser scanning confocal microscopy. Microscopy studies showed that the DNA condenses in the form of fibrillar precipitates, with an irregular structure, due to electrostatic interactions between PLys and DNA. This is not modified by the presence of hydrophobic PS block. Scattering experiments show that the structure of the polyplexes corresponds to a local order of DNA rods which becomes more compact upon increasing n. It can be concluded that for DNA/ PSm-b- PLys(n) polyplexes, the balance between the PLys block length and the excess charge in the system plays an essential role in the formation of a liquid crystalline phase.

Spontaneous ring-opening polymerization of macrocyclic aromatic thioether ketones under transient high-temperature conditions

Spontaneous ring-opening polymerization of macrocyclic aromatic thioether ketones [-1,4-SC6H4CO-C6H4-](n) (n = 3 and 4), in which the thioether linkages are para to the ketone, occurs during rapid, transient heating to 480degreesC, to afford a soluble, semi-crystalline poly(thioether ketone) of high molar mass (eta(inh) > 1.0 dL . g(-1)). Corresponding macrocyclic ether ketone, and a macrocyclic thioether ether ketone in which the thioether linkage is para to the ether rather than to the ketone, show no evidence of polymerization under analogous conditions.