Centennial changes in the solar wind speed and in the open solar flux

We use combinations of geomagnetic indices, based on both variation range and hourly means, to derive the solar wind flow speed, the interplanetary magnetic field strength at 1 AU and the total open solar flux between 1895 and the present. We analyze the effects of the regression procedure and geomagnetic indices used by adopting four analysis methods. These give a mean interplanetary magnetic field strength increase of 45.1 ± 4.5% between 1903 and 1956, associated with a 14.4 ± 0.7% rise in the solar wind speed. We use averaging timescales of 1 and 2 days to allow for the difference between the magnetic fluxes threading the coronal source surface and the heliocentric sphere at 1 AU. The largest uncertainties originate from the choice of regression procedure: the average of all eight estimates of the rise in open solar flux is 73.0 ± 5.0%, but the best procedure, giving the narrowest and most symmetric distribution of fit residuals, yields 87.3 ± 3.9%.

Recent glacier retreat in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia, and associated increase in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development

This paper reports changes in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development associated with recent glacier retreat (1985-2000) in the central Caucasus Mountains, Russia. Satellite imagery (Landsat TM and ETM+) was used to map the surface area and supraglacial debris cover on six neighbouring glaciers in the Adylsu valley through a process of manual digitizing on a false-colour composite of bands 5, 4, 3 (red, green, blue). The distribution and surface area of supraglacial and proglacial lakes was digitized for a larger area, which extended to the whole Landsat scene. We also compare our satellite interpretations to field observations in the Adylsu valley. Supraglacial debris cover ranges from < 5% to > 25% on individual glaciers, but glacier retreat between 1985 and 2000 resulted in a 3-6% increase in the proportion of each glacier covered by debris. The only exception to this trend was a very small glacier where debris cover did not change significantly and remote mapping proved more difficult. The increase in debris cover is characterized by a progressive upglacier migration, which we suggest is being driven by focused ablation (and therefore glacier thinning) at the up-glacier limit of the debris cover, resulting in the progressive exposure of englacial debris. Glacier retreat has also been accompanied by an increase in the number of proglacial and supraglacial lakes in our study area, from 16 in 1985 to 24 in 2000, representing a 57% increase in their cumulative surface area. These lakes appear to be impounded by relatively recently lateral and terminal moraines and by debris deposits on the surface of the glacier. The changes in glacier surface characteristics reported here are likely to exert a profound influence on glacier mass balance and their future response to climate change. They may also increase the likelihood of glacier-related hazards (lake outbursts, debris slides), and future monitoring is recommended.

Individual Differences in Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activity are Associated with Evaluation Speed and Psychological Well-being

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined whether individual differences in amygdala activation in response to negative relative to neutral information are related to differences in the speed with which such information is evaluated, the extent to which such differences are associated with medial prefrontal cortex function, and their relationship with measures of trait anxiety and psychological well-being (PWB). Results indicated that faster judgments of negative relative to neutral information were associated with increased left and right amygdala activation. In the prefrontal cortex, faster judgment time was associated with relative decreased activation in a cluster in the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, BA 24). Furthermore, people who were slower to evaluate negative versus neutral information reported higher PWB. Importantly, higher PWB was strongly associated with increased activation in the ventral ACC for negative relative to neutral information. Individual differences in trait anxiety did not predict variation in judgment time or in amygdala or ventral ACC activity. These findings suggest that people high in PWB effectively recruit the ventral ACC when confronted with potentially aversive stimuli, manifest reduced activity in subcortical regions such as the amygdala, and appraise such information as less salient as reflected in slower evaluative speed.

Assessing the accuracy of CME speed and trajectory estimates from STEREO observations through a comparison of independent methods

We have estimated the speed and direction of propagation of a number of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) using single-spacecraft data from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) wide-field cameras. In general, these values are in good agreement with those predicted by Thernisien, Vourlidas, and Howard in Solar Phys. 256, 111 -aEuro parts per thousand 130 (2009) using a forward modelling method to fit CMEs imaged by the STEREO COR2 coronagraphs. The directions of the CMEs predicted by both techniques are in good agreement despite the fact that many of the CMEs under study travel in directions that cause them to fade rapidly in the HI images. The velocities estimated from both techniques are in general agreement although there are some interesting differences that may provide evidence for the influence of the ambient solar wind on the speed of CMEs. The majority of CMEs with a velocity estimated to be below 400 km s(-1) in the COR2 field of view have higher estimated velocities in the HI field of view, while, conversely, those with COR2 velocities estimated to be above 400 km s(-1) have lower estimated HI velocities. We interpret this as evidence for the deceleration of fast CMEs and the acceleration of slower CMEs by interaction with the ambient solar wind beyond the COR2 field of view. We also show that the uncertainties in our derived parameters are influenced by the range of elongations over which each CME can be tracked. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the predicted arrival time of a CME at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) to within six hours, the CME needs to be tracked out to at least 30 degrees elongation. This is in good agreement with predictions of the accuracy of our technique based on Monte Carlo simulations.

Age related changes in speed and mechanism of adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration

Skeletal muscle undergoes a progressive age-related loss in mass and function. Preservation of muscle mass depends in part on satellite cells, the resident stem cells of skeletal muscle. Reduced satellite cell function may contribute to the age-associated decrease in muscle mass. Here we focused on characterising the effect of age on satellite cell migration. We report that aged satellite cells migrate at less than half the speed of young cells. In addition, aged cells show abnormal membrane extension and retraction characteristics required for amoeboid based cell migration. Aged satellite cells displayed low levels of integrin expression. By deploying a mathematical model approach to investigate mechanism of migration, we have found that young satellite cells move in a random ‘memoryless’ manner whereas old cells demonstrate superdiffusive tendencies. Most importantly, we show that nitric oxide, a key regulator of cell migration, reversed the loss in migration speed and reinstated the unbiased mechanism of movement in aged satellite cells. Finally we found that although Hepatocyte Growth Factor increased the rate of aged satellite cell movement it did not restore the memoryless migration characteristics displayed in young cells. Our study shows that satellite cell migration, a key component of skeletal muscle regeneration, is compromised during aging. However, we propose clinically approved drugs could be used to overcome these detrimental changes.

Large is fast, small is tight: determinants of speed and affinity in subunit capture by a periplasmic chaperone

The chaperone/usher pathway assembles surface virulence organelles of Gram-negative bacteria, consisting of fibers of linearly polymerized protein subunits. Fiber subunits are connected through 'donor strand complementation': each subunit completes the immunoglobulin (Ig)-like fold of the neighboring subunit by donating the seventh β-strand in trans. Whereas the folding of Ig domains is a fast first-order process, folding of Ig modules into the fiber conformation is a slow second-order process. Periplasmic chaperones separate this process in two parts by forming transient complexes with subunits. Interactions between chaperones and subunits are also based on the principle of donor strand complementation. In this study, we have performed mutagenesis of the binding motifs of the Caf1M chaperone and Caf1 capsular subunit from Yersinia pestis and analyzed the effect of the mutations on the structure, stability, and kinetics of Caf1M-Caf1 and Caf1-Caf1 interactions. The results suggest that a large hydrophobic effect combined with extensive main-chain hydrogen bonding enables Caf1M to rapidly bind an early folding intermediate of Caf1 and direct its partial folding. The switch from the Caf1M-Caf1 contact to the less hydrophobic, but considerably tighter and less dynamic Caf1-Caf1 contact occurs via the zip-out-zip-in donor strand exchange pathway with pocket 5 acting as the initiation site. Based on these findings, Caf1M was engineered to bind Caf1 faster, tighter, or both faster and tighter. To our knowledge, this is the first successful attempt to rationally design an assembly chaperone with improved chaperone function.

Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Implementation of Parallel (p,q) Counters for High Speed Digital Multipliers

Both the (5,3) counter and (2,2,3) counter multiplication techniques are investigated for the efficiency of their operation speed and the viability of the architectures when implemented in a fast bipolar ECL technology. The implementation of the counters in series-gated ECL and threshold logic are contrasted for speed, noise immunity and complexity, and are critically compared with the fastest practical design of a full-adder. A novel circuit technique to overcome the problems of needing high fan-in input weights in threshold circuits through the use of negative weighted inputs is presented. The authors conclude that a (2,2,3) counter based array multiplier implemented in series-gated ECL should enable a significant increase in speed over conventional full adder based array multipliers.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

Edible oil from Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus L.): mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction methods

The tiger nut tuber of the Cyperus esculentus L. plant is an unusual storage system with similar amounts of starch and lipid. The extraction of its oil employing both mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction (AEE) methods was investigated and an examination of the resulting products was carried out. The effects of particle size and moisture content of the tuber on the yield of tiger nut oil with pressing were initially studied. Smaller particles were found to enhance oil yields while a range of moisture content was observed to favour higher oil yields. When samples were first subjected to high pressures up to 700 MPa before pressing at 38 MPa there was no increase in the oil yields. Ground samples incubated with a mixture of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Viscozyme (a mixture of cell wall degrading enzyme) as a pre-treatment, increased oil yield by pressing and 90% of oil was recovered as a result. When aqueous enzymatic extraction was carried out on ground samples, the use of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Celluclast independently improved extraction oil yields compared to oil extraction without enzymes by 34.5, 23.4 and 14.7% respectively. A mixture of the three enzymes further augmented the oil yield and different operational factors were individually studied for their effects on the process. These include time, total mixed enzyme concentration, linear agitation speed, and solid-liquid ratio. The largest oil yields were obtained with a solid-liquid ratio of 1:6, mixed enzyme concentration of 1% (w/w) and 6 h incubation time although the longer time allowed for the formation of an emulsion. Using stationary samples during incubation surprisingly gave the highest oil yields, and this was observed to be as a result of gravity separation occurring during agitation. Furthermore, the use of high pressure processing up to 300 MPa as a pre-treatment enhanced oil yields but additional pressure increments had a detrimental effect. The quality of oils recovered from both mechanical and aqueous enzymatic extraction based on the percentage free fatty acid (% FFA) and peroxide values (PV) all reflected the good stabilities of the oils with the highest % FFA of 1.8 and PV of 1.7. The fatty acid profiles of all oils also remained unchanged. The level of tocopherols in oils were enhanced with both enzyme aided pressing (EAP) and high pressure processing before AEE. Analysis on the residual meals revealed DP 3 and DP 4 oligosaccharides present in EAP samples but these would require further assessment on their identity and quality.

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?

Tropical Cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPIOM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 year periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-year periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50ms-1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in 2 the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapor provide more energy for the storms so that when favorable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 years at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of tropical cyclones were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones.