Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window. Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

Living to die and dying to live: the survival strategy behind leaf senescence

Senescence represents the final developmental act of the leaf, during which the leaf cell is dismantled in a coordinated manner to remobilize nutrients and to secure reproductive success. The process of senescence provides the plant with phenotypic plasticity to help it adapt to adverse environmental conditions. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the factors and mechanisms that control the onset of senescence. We explain how the competence to senesce is established during leaf development, as depicted by the senescence window model. We also discuss the mechanisms by which phytohormones and environmental stresses control senescence, as well as the impact of source-sink relationships on plant yield and stress tolerance. In addition, we discuss the role of senescence as a strategy for stress adaptation and how crop production and food quality could benefit from engineering or breeding crops with altered onset of senescence.

Interactions between earthworms and arsenic in the soil environment: a review

Chemical pollution of the environment has become a major source of concern. In particular, many studies have investigated the impact of pollution on biota in the environment. Studies on metalliferous contaminated mine spoil wastes have shown that some soil organisms have the capability to become resistant to metal/metalloid toxicity. Earthworms are known to inhabit arsenic-rich metalliferous soils and, due to their intimate contact with the soil, in both the solid and aqueous phases, are likely to accumulate contaminants present in mine spoil. Earthworms that inhabit metalliferous contaminated soils must have developed mechanisms of resistance to the toxins found in these soils. The mechanisms of resistance are not fully understood; they may involve physiological adaptation (acclimation) or be genetic. This review discusses the relationships between earthworms and arsenic-rich mine spoil wastes, looking critically at resistance and possible mechanisms of resistance, in relation to soil edaphic factors and possible trophic transfer routes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-consistent wave-particle interactions in dispersive scale long-period field-line-resonances

Using 1D Vlasov drift-kinetic computer simulations, it is shown that electron trapping in long period standing shear Alfven waves (SAWs) provides an efficient energy sink for wave energy that is much more effective than Landau damping. It is also suggested that the plasma environment of low altitude auroral-zone geomagnetic field lines is more suited to electron acceleration by inertial or kinetic scale Alfven waves. This is due to the self-consistent response of the electron distribution function to SAWs, which must accommodate the low altitude large-scale current system in standing waves. We characterize these effects in terms of the relative magnitude of the wave phase and electron thermal velocities. While particle trapping is shown to be significant across a wide range of plasma temperatures and wave frequencies, we find that electron beam formation in long period waves is more effective in relatively cold plasma.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

Thermospheric Control of the Auroral Source of O+Ions for the Magnetosphere

Linear theory, model ion-density profiles and MSIS neutral thermospheric predictions are used to investigate the stability of the auroral, topside ionosphere to oxygen cyclotron waves: variations of the critical height, above which the plasma is unstable, with field-aligned current, thermal ion density and exospheric temperature are considered. In addition, probabilities are assessed that interactions with neutral atomic gases prevent O+ ions from escaping into the magnetosphere after they have been transversely accelerated by these waves. The two studies are combined to give a rough estimate of the total O+ escape flux as a function of the field-aligned current density for an assumed rise in the perpendicular ion temperature. Charge exchange with neutral oxygen, not hydrogen, is shown to be the principle limitation to the escape of O+ ions, which occurs when the waves are driven unstable down to low altitudes. It is found that the largest observed field-aligned current densities can heat a maximum of about 5×1014 O+ ions m−2 to a threshold above which they are subsequently able to escape into the magnetosphere in the following 500s. Averaged over this period, this would constitute a flux of 1012 m−2 s−1 and in steady-state the peak outflow would then be limited to about 1013 m−2 s−1 by frictional drag on thermal O+ at lower altitudes. Maximum escape is at low plasma density unless the O+ scale height is very large. The outflow decreases with decreasing field-aligned current density and, to a lesser extent, with increasing exospheric temperature. Upward flowing ion events are evaluated as a source of O+ ions for the magnetosphere and as an explanation of the observed solar cycle variation of ring current O+ abundance.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.