Evaluation of a photosynthesis-based biogenic isoprene emission scheme in JULES and simulation of isoprene emissions under present-day climate conditions

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

Referencing of street-level flows measured during the DAPPLE 2004 campaign

Street-level mean flow and turbulence govern the dispersion of gases away from their sources in urban areas. A suitable reference measurement in the driving flow above the urban canopy is needed to both understand and model complex street-level flow for pollutant dispersion or emergency response purposes. In vegetation canopies, a reference at mean canopy height is often used, but it is unclear whether this is suitable for urban canopies. This paper presents an evaluation of the quality of reference measurements at both roof-top (height = H) and at height z = 9H = 190 m, and their ability to explain mean and turbulent variations of street-level flow. Fast response wind data were measured at street canyon and reference sites during the six-week long DAPPLE project field campaign in spring 2004, in central London, UK, and an averaging time of 10 min was used to distinguish recirculation-type mean flow patterns from turbulence. Flow distortion at each reference site was assessed by considering turbulence intensity and streamline deflection. Then each reference was used as the dependent variable in the model of Dobre et al. (2005) which decomposes street-level flow into channelling and recirculating components. The high reference explained more of the variability of the mean flow. Coupling of turbulent kinetic energy was also stronger between street-level and the high reference flow rather than the roof-top. This coupling was weaker when overnight flow was stratified, and turbulence was suppressed at the high reference site. However, such events were rare (<1% of data) over the six-week long period. The potential usefulness of a centralised, high reference site in London was thus demonstrated with application to emergency response and air quality modelling.

Genotypic variations in the accumulation of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn exhibited by six commonly grown vegetables

Metal contaminants in garden and allotment soils could possibly affect human health through a variety of pathways. This study focused on the potential pathway of consumption of vegetables grown on contaminated soil. Five cultivars each of six common vegetables were grown in a control and in a soil spiked with Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. Highly significant differences in metal content were evident between cultivars of a number of vegetables for several of the contaminants. Carrot and pea cultivars exhibited significant differences in accumulated concentrations of Cd and Cu with carrot cultivars also exhibiting significant differences in Zn. Distinctive differences were also identified when comparing one vegetable to another, legumes (Leguminosae) tending to be low accumulators, root vegetables (Umbelliferae and Liliaceae) tending to be moderate accumulators and leafy vegetables (Compositae and Chenopodiaceae) being high accumulators. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

The F test for comparing two normal variances: correct and incorrect calculation of the two-sided p-value?

This article illustrates that not all statistical software packages are correctly calculating a p-value for the classical F test comparison of two independent Normal variances. This is illustrated with a simple example, and the reasons why are discussed. Eight different software packages are considered.

Trigonal pyramidal (CuN4)-N-I cores assembled by a family of tetradentate N-donor Schiff bases. Substituent effects on the Cu(II/I) potential

Copper(l) complexes of 1:3 condensates of tris(2-aminoethyl)amine and p-X-benzaldehydes (X = K Cl, NMe2 and NO2) of the type [Cu(ligand)]ClO4 are synthesised. The X-ray crystal structures of the copper(l) complexes with X = K, Cl and NMe2 are determined. In these complexes copper(l) is found to have trigonal pyramidal N-4 coordination sphere with the apical N forming a longer bond (2.191-2.202 Angstrom) than the trigonal ones (2.003-2.026 Angstrom). The Cu(II/I) potentials in these complexes span a range of 0.71-0.90 V vs SCE increasing linearly with the resonance component of the Hammett sigma for the para substituent X. It is concluded that trigonal pyramidal geometry is destabilising for copper(II).

Potential of making - Over to sustainable buildings in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Two unique large buildings in the Kingdom of Bahrain were selected for make-over to sustainable buildings. These are the Almoayyed Tower (the first sky scraper) and the Bahrain International Circuit, BIC (The best world Formula 1 Circuit). The amount of electricity extracted from using renewable energy resource (solar and wind), integrated to the buildings-has been studied thoroughly. For the first building, the total solar electricity from the PV installed at the roof and the 4 vertical facades was found 3 017 500 kWh annually (3 million kWh), i.e. daily energy of 8219 kWh (enough to Supply electricity for 171 houses, each is rated as 2 kW house-in Europe the standard is 1.2 kW). This means that the annual solar electricity produced will be nearly 3 million kWh. This correspond to annual CO, reduction of 3000 t (assuming each kWh of energy from natural gas lead to emission of 1 kg of CO2). For the second building (BIC) the solar electricity from PV panels installed at the roof top, fixed at tilt angle of 26 degrees facing south, will provide annual solar electricity of is 2.8 x 10(6) kWh. The solar electricity from PV panels installed on the windows (12,000 m(2)) will be 45.3 x 10(6) kWh. This means that the total annual electrical power from PV panels (windows and roofs) will be nearly 12 MW (32 kW per day). The CO2 reduction will be 48,000 t. Under the carbon trading or CDM scheme the revenue (or the reward) would be (sic)480,000 million annually (the reward is (sic)10 per tonnes of CO2). The BIC circuit can have diversified electricity supply, i.e. from solar radiation (PV), from solar heat (CSP) and from wind (wind turbines), assuring its sustainability as well as reducing the CO2 emission.