An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Sewage effluent clean-up reduces phosphorus but not phytoplankton in lowland chalk stream (River Kennet, UK) impacted by water mixing from adjacent canal

Information is provided on phosphorus in the River Kennet and the adjacent Kennet and Avon Canal in southern England to assess their interactions and the changes following phosphorus reductions in sewage treatment work (STW) effluent inputs. A step reduction in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration within the effluent (5 to 13 fold) was observed from several STWs discharging to the river in the mid-2000s. This translated to over halving of SRP concentrations within the lower Kennet. Lower Kennet SRP concentrations change from being highest under base-flow to highest under storm-flow conditions. This represented a major shift from direct effluent inputs to a within-catchment source dominated system characteristic of the upper part to the catchment. Average SRP concentrations in the lower Kennet reduced over time towards the target for good water quality. Critically, there was no corresponding reduction in chlorophyll-a concentration, the waters remaining eutrophic when set against standards for lakes. Following the up gradient input of the main water and SRP source (Wilton Water), SRP concentrations in the canal reduced down gradient to below detection limits at times near its junction with the Kennet downstream. However, chlorophyll concentrations in the canal were in an order of magnitude higher than in the river. This probably resulted from long water residence times and higher temperatures promoting progressive algal and suspended sediment generations that consumed SRP. The canal acted as a point source for sediment, algae and total phosphorus to the river especially during the summer months when boat traffic disturbed the canal's bottom sediments and the locks were being regularly opened. The short-term dynamics of this transfer was complex. For the canal and the supply source at Wilton Water, conditions remained hypertrophic when set against standards for lakes even when SRP concentrations were extremely low.

The population dynamical consequences of density-dependence in fungal plant pathogens

Almost all stages of a plant pathogen life cycle are potentially density dependent. At small scales and short time spans appropriate to a single-pathogen individual, density dependence can be extremely strong, mediated both by simple resource use, changes in the host due to defence reactions and signals between fungal individuals. In most cases, the consequences are a rise in reproductive rate as the pathogen becomes rarer, and consequently stabilisation of the population dynamics; however, at very low density reproduction may become inefficient, either because it is co-operative or because heterothallic fungi do not form sexual spores. The consequence will be historically determined distributions. On a medium scale, appropriate for example to several generations of a host plant, the factors already mentioned remain important but specialist natural enemies may also start to affect the dynamics detectably. This could in theory lead to complex (e.g. chaotic) dynamics, but in practice heterogeneity of habitat and host is likely to smooth the extreme relationships and make for more stable, though still very variable, dynamics. On longer temporal and longer spatial scales evolutionary responses by both host and pathogen are likely to become important, producing patterns which ultimately depend on the strength of interactions at smaller scales.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Minimum recovery time between reactive hyperemia stimulus in the repeated measurement of brachial flow-mediated dilatation.

The ability to undertake repeat measurements of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) within a short time of a previous measurement would be useful to improve accuracy or to repeat a failed initial procedure. Although standard methods report that a minimum of 10 min is required between measurements, there is no published data to support this. Thirty healthy volunteers had five FMD measurements performed within a 2-h period, separated by various time intervals (5, 15 and 30 min). In 19 volunteers, FMD was also performed as soon as the vessel had returned to its baseline diameter. There was no significant difference between any of the FMD measurements or parameters across the visits indicating that repeat measurements may be taken after a minimum of 5 min or as soon as the vessel has returned to its baseline diameter, which in some subjects may be less than 5 min.

Influence of mass diffusion in sea ice dynamical models

The mixing of floes of different thickness caused by repeated deformation of the ice cover is modeled as diffusion, and the mass balance equation for sea ice accounting for mass diffusion is developed. The effect of deformational diffusion on the ice thickness balance is shown to reach 1% of the divergence effect, which describes ridging and lead formation. This means that with the same accuracy the mass balance equation can be written in terms of mean velocity rather than mean mass-weighted velocity, which one should correctly use for a multicomponent fluid such as sea ice with components identified by floe thickness. Mixing (diffusion) of sea ice also occurs because of turbulent variations in wind and ocean drags that are unresolved in models. Estimates of the importance of turbulent mass diffusion on the dynamic redistribution of ice thickness are determined using empirical data for the turbulent diffusivity. For long-time-scale prediction (≫5 days), where unresolved atmospheric motion may have a length scale on the order of the Arctic basin and the time scale is larger than the synoptic time scale of atmospheric events, turbulent mass diffusion can exceed 10% of the divergence effect. However, for short-time-scale prediction, for example, 5 days, the unresolved scales are on the order of 100 km, and turbulent diffusion is about 0.1% of the divergence effect. Because inertial effects are small in the dynamics of the sea ice pack, diffusive momentum transfer can be disregarded.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Results from the Covered Catchment Experiment at Gårdsjön, Sweden, after ten years of clean precipitation treatment

The Covered Catchment Experiment at Gordsjon is a large scale forest ecosystem manipulation, where acid precipitation was intercepted by a 7000 m(2) plastic roof and replaced by 'clean precipitation' sprinkled below the roof for ten years between 1991 and 2001. The treatment resulted in a strong positive response of runoff quality. The runoff sulphate, inorganic aluminium and base cations decreased, while there was a strong increase in runoff ANC and a moderate increase in pH. The runoff continued to improve over the whole duration of the experiment. The achieved quality was, however, after ten years still considerably worse than estimated pre-industrial runoff at the site. Stable isotopes of sulphur were analysed to study the soil sulphur cycling. At the initial years of the experiment, the desorption of SO4 from the mineral soil appeared to control the runoff SO4 concentration. However, as the experiment proceeded, there was growing evidence that net mineralisation of soil organic sulphur in the humus layer was an additional source of SO4 in runoff. This might provide a challenge to current acidification models. The experiment convincingly demonstrated on a catchment scale, that reduction in acid deposition causes an immediate improvement of surface water quality even at heavily acidified sites. The improvement of the runoff appeared to be largely a result of cation exchange processes in the soil due to decreasing concentrations of the soil solution, while any potential change in soil base saturation seemed to be less important for the runoff chemistry over the short time period of one decade. These findings should be considered when interpreting and extrapolating regional trends in surface water chemistry to the terrestrial parts of ecosystems.

The climate sensitivity and its components diagnosed from Earth Radiation Budget data

One of the major uncertainties in the ability to predict future climate change, and hence its impacts, is the lack of knowledge of the earth's climate sensitivity. Here, data are combined from the 1985-96 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) with surface temperature change information and estimates of radiative forcing to diagnose the climate sensitivity. Importantly, the estimate is completely independent of climate model results. A climate feedback parameter of 2.3 +/- 1.4 W m(-2) K-1 is found. This corresponds to a 1.0-4.1-K range for the equilibrium warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide (assuming Gaussian errors in observable parameters, which is approximately equivalent to a uniform "prior" in feedback parameter). The uncertainty range is due to a combination of the short time period for the analysis as well as uncertainties in the surface temperature time series and radiative forcing time series, mostly the former. Radiative forcings may not all be fully accounted for; however, all argument is presented that the estimate of climate sensitivity is still likely to be representative of longer-term climate change. The methodology can be used to 1) retrieve shortwave and longwave components of climate feedback and 2) suggest clear-sky and cloud feedback terms. There is preliminary evidence of a neutral or even negative longwave feedback in the observations, suggesting that current climate models may not be representing some processes correctly if they give a net positive longwave feedback.

In-street wind direction variability in the vicinity of a busy intersection in central London

We present results from fast-response wind measurements within and above a busy intersection between two street canyons (Marylebone Road and Gloucester Place) in Westminster, London taken as part of the DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollution and Penetration into the Local Environment; www.dapple.org.uk) 2007 field campaign. The data reported here were collected using ultrasonic anemometers on the roof-top of a building adjacent to the intersection and at two heights on a pair of lamp-posts on opposite sides of the intersection. Site characteristics, data analysis and the variation of intersection flow with the above-roof wind direction (θref) are discussed. Evidence of both flow channelling and recirculation was identified within the canyon, only a few metres from the intersection for along-street and across-street roof-top winds respectively. Results also indicate that for oblique rooftop flows, the intersection flow is a complex combination of bifurcated channelled flows, recirculation and corner vortices. Asymmetries in local building geometry around the intersection and small changes in the background wind direction (changes in 15-min mean θref of 5–10 degrees) were also observed to have profound influences on the behaviour of intersection flow patterns. Consequently, short time-scale variability in the background flow direction can lead to highly scattered in-street mean flow angles masking the true multi-modal features of the flow and thus further complicating modelling challenges.

Adaptive routing in active networks

New conceptual ideas on network architectures have been proposed in the recent past. Current store-andforward routers are replaced by active intermediate systems, which are able to perform computations on transient packets, in a way that results very helpful for developing and deploying new protocols in a short time. This paper introduces a new routing algorithm, based on a congestion metric, and inspired by the behavior of ants in nature. The use of the Active Networks paradigm associated with a cooperative learning environment produces a robust, decentralized algorithm capable of adapting quickly to changing conditions.

Assembly rules for protein networks derived from phylogenetic-statistical analysis of whole genomes

Background: We report an analysis of a protein network of functionally linked proteins, identified from a phylogenetic statistical analysis of complete eukaryotic genomes. Phylogenetic methods identify pairs of proteins that co-evolve on a phylogenetic tree, and have been shown to have a high probability of correctly identifying known functional links. Results: The eukaryotic correlated evolution network we derive displays the familiar power law scaling of connectivity. We introduce the use of explicit phylogenetic methods to reconstruct the ancestral presence or absence of proteins at the interior nodes of a phylogeny of eukaryote species. We find that the connectivity distribution of proteins at the point they arise on the tree and join the network follows a power law, as does the connectivity distribution of proteins at the time they are lost from the network. Proteins resident in the network acquire connections over time, but we find no evidence that 'preferential attachment' - the phenomenon of newly acquired connections in the network being more likely to be made to proteins with large numbers of connections - influences the network structure. We derive a 'variable rate of attachment' model in which proteins vary in their propensity to form network interactions independently of how many connections they have or of the total number of connections in the network, and show how this model can produce apparent power-law scaling without preferential attachment. Conclusion: A few simple rules can explain the topological structure and evolutionary changes to protein-interaction networks: most change is concentrated in satellite proteins of low connectivity and small phenotypic effect, and proteins differ in their propensity to form attachments. Given these rules of assembly, power law scaled networks naturally emerge from simple principles of selection, yielding protein interaction networks that retain a high-degree of robustness on short time scales and evolvability on longer evolutionary time scales.

The contribution of building research to the independence and quality of life of older people

Many nations are experiencing rapid rises in the life expectancy of their citizens. The implications of this major demographic shift are considerable offering opportunities as well as challenges to reconsider how people should spend their later years. A key task is enhancing the quality of life of older people through enabling them to continue to live independently even though illness, accident or frailty may have severely reduced their physical and sensory abilities and, possibly, mental health. Yet the needs of older people and disabled people have been largely ignored in the design of everyday consumer products, the home, transport systems and the built environment in general. Whilst the need for designers, engineers and technologists to provide products, environments and systems which are inclusive of all members of society is widely accepted, there is little understanding of how this can be achieved. In 1998 the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council established its EQUAL Initiative. This has encouraged design, engineering and technology researchers in universities to join with their colleagues from the social, medical and health sciences to investigate a wide range of issues experienced by older and disabled people and to propose solutions. Their research, which directly involves older and disabled people and, for example, social housing providers, social services departments, charities, engineering and architectural consultants, and transport firms, has been extremely successful. In a very short time it has influenced government policy on housing, long-term care, and building standards, and findings have been taken up by architects, designers, health-care professionals and bodies which represent older and disabled people.

OTHR impulsive interference suppression in strong clutter background

External interferences can severely degrade the performance of an Over-the-horizon radar (OTHR), so suppression of external interferences in strong clutter environment is the prerequisite for the target detection. The traditional suppression solutions usually began with clutter suppression in either time or frequency domain, followed by the interference detection and suppression. Based on this traditional solution, this paper proposes a method characterized by joint clutter suppression and interference detection: by analyzing eigenvalues in a short-time moving window centered at different time position, Clutter is suppressed by discarding the maximum three eigenvalues at every time position and meanwhile detection is achieved by analyzing the remained eigenvalues at different position. Then, restoration is achieved by forward-backward linear prediction using interference-free data surrounding the interference position. In the numeric computation, the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) is replaced by values decomposition (SVD) based on the equivalence of these two processing. Data processing and experimental results show its efficiency of noise floor falling down about 10-20 dB.

Application of the entropy technique and genetic algorithms to construction site layout planning of medium-size projects

Genetic algorithms (GAs) have been introduced into site layout planning as reported in a number of studies. In these studies, the objective functions were defined so as to employ the GAs in searching for the optimal site layout. However, few studies have been carried out to investigate the actual closeness of relationships between site facilities; it is these relationships that ultimately govern the site layout. This study has determined that the underlying factors of site layout planning for medium-size projects include work flow, personnel flow, safety and environment, and personal preferences. By finding the weightings on these factors and the corresponding closeness indices between each facility, a closeness relationship has been deduced. Two contemporary mathematical approaches - fuzzy logic theory and an entropy measure - were adopted in finding these results in order to minimize the uncertainty and vagueness of the collected data and improve the quality of the information. GAs were then applied to searching for the optimal site layout in a medium-size government project using the GeneHunter software. The objective function involved minimizing the total travel distance. An optimal layout was obtained within a short time. This reveals that the application of GA to site layout planning is highly promising and efficient.