Statistical modeling suggests that antiandrogens in effluents from wastewater treatment works contribute to widespread sexual disruption in fish living in English rivers.

BACKGROUND: The widespread occurrence of feminized male fish downstream of some wastewater treatment works has led to substantial interest from ecologists and public health professionals. This concern stems from the view that the effects observed have a parallel in humans, and that both phenomena are caused by exposure to mixtures of contaminants that interfere with reproductive development. The evidence for a "wildlife-human connection" is, however, weak: Testicular dysgenesis syndrome, seen in human males, is most easily reproduced in rodent models by exposure to mixtures of antiandrogenic chemicals. In contrast, the accepted explanation for feminization of wild male fish is that it results mainly from exposure to steroidal estrogens originating primarily from human excretion. OBJECTIVES: We sought to further explore the hypothesis that endocrine disruption in fish is multi-causal, resulting from exposure to mixtures of chemicals with both estrogenic and antiandrogenic properties. METHODS: We used hierarchical generalized linear and generalized additive statistical modeling to explore the associations between modeled concentrations and activities of estrogenic and antiandrogenic chemicals in 30 U.K. rivers and feminized responses seen in wild fish living in these rivers. RESULTS: In addition to the estrogenic substances, antiandrogenic activity was prevalent in almost all treated sewage effluents tested. Further, the results of the modeling demonstrated that feminizing effects in wild fish could be best modeled as a function of their predicted exposure to both anti-androgens and estrogens or to antiandrogens alone. CONCLUSION: The results provide a strong argument for a multicausal etiology of widespread feminization of wild fish in U.K. rivers involving contributions from both steroidal estrogens and xeno-estrogens and from other (as yet unknown) contaminants with antiandrogenic properties. These results may add farther credence to the hypothesis that endocrine-disrupting effects seen in wild fish and in humans are caused by similar combinations of endocrine-disrupting chemical cocktails.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

The Palaeolithic Rivers of Southwest Britain

The Palaeolithic Rivers of Southwest Britain (PRoSWeB) project synthesises the archaeological evidence for the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic occupation of south-west Britain (c. 500,000 - 40,000 BP), with a principal focus upon the archaeological and geological potential of the region's Middle Pleistocene fluvial environments. South-west Britain was defined as the region west of the headwaters of the Rivers Frome and Piddle and south-west of the River Avon.

A review of dissolved oxygen modelling techniques for lowland rivers

This review introduces the methods used to simulate the processes affecting dissolved oxygen (DO) in lowland rivers. The important processes are described and this provides a modelling framework to describe those processes in the context of a mass-balance model. The process equations that are introduced all require (reaction) rate parameters and a variety of common procedures for identifying those parameters are reviewed. This is important because there is a wide range of estimation techniques for many of the parameters. These different techniques elicit different estimates of the parameter value and so there is the potential for a significant uncertainty in the model's inputs and therefore in the output too. Finally, the data requirements for modelling DO in lowland rivers are summarised on the basis of modelling the processes described in this review using a mass-balance model. This is reviewed with regard to what data are available and from where they might be obtained. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A review of currently available in-stream water-quality models and their applicability for simulating dissolved oxygen in lowland rivers

In this paper, a review is undertaken of the major models currently in use for describing water quality in freshwater river systems. The number of existing models is large because the various studies of water quality in rivers around the world have often resulted in the construction of new 'bespoke' models designed for the particular situation of that study. However, it is worth considering models that are already available, since an existing model, suitable for the purposes of the study, will save a great deal of work and may already have been established within regulatory and legal frameworks. The models chosen here are SIMCAT, TOMCAT, QUAL2E, QUASAR, MIKE-11 and ISIS, and the potential for each model is examined in relation to the issue of simulating dissolved oxygen (DO) in lowland rivers. These models have been developed for particular purposes and this review shows that no one model can provide all of the functionality required. Furthermore, all of the models contain assumptions and limitations that need to be understood if meaningful interpretations of the model simulations are to. be made. The work is concluded with the view that it is unfair to set one model against another in terms of broad applicability, but that a model of intermediate complexity, such as QUASAR, is generally well suited to simulate DO in river systems. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Bryozoan populations reflect nutrient enrichment and productivity gradients in rivers

1. The hypothesis that nutrient enrichment will affect bryozoan abundance was tested using two complementary investigations; a field-based method determining bryozoan abundance in 20 rivers of different nutrient concentrations by deploying statoblast (dormant propagule) traps and an experimental laboratory microcosm study measuring bryozoan growth and mortality. These two methods confirmed independently that increased nutrient concentrations in water promote increases in the biomass of freshwater bryozoans. 2. Statoblasts of the genus Plumatella were recorded in all rivers, regardless of nutrient concentrations, demonstrating that freshwater bryozoans are widespread. Concentrations of Plumatella statoblasts were high in rivers with high nutrient concentrations relative to those with low to moderate nutrient concentrations. Regression analyses indicated that phosphorus concentrations, in particular, significantly influenced statoblast concentrations. 3. Concentrations of Lophopus crystallinus statoblasts were also higher in sites characterised by high nutrient concentrations. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of L. crystallinus statoblasts was significantly associated with decreasing altitude and increasing phosphorus concentrations. This apparently rare species was found in nine rivers (out of 20), seven of which were new sites for L. crystallinus. 4. Growth rates of Fredericella sultana in laboratory microcosms increased with increasing nutrient concentration and high mortality rates were associated with low nutrient concentrations. 5. Our results indicate that bryozoans respond to increasing nutrient concentrations by increased growth, resulting in higher biomasses in enriched waters. We also found that an important component of bryozoan diets can derive from food items lacking chlorophyll a. Finally, bryozoans may be used as independent proxies for inferring trophic conditions, a feature that may be especially valuable in reconstructing historical environments by assessing the abundance of statoblasts in sediment cores.

Sexual symbolism in the Early Neolithic of the southern Levant: pestles and mortars from WF16

WF16 is a Pre-Pottery Neolithic site in the Southern Levant that has produced an important collection of ground stone artefacts. These include one explicit and one ambiguous representation of a phallus – the latter may be a human head and shoulders. The authors note the visual similarity of certain pestles from WF16 to phalli and suggest that such artefacts and their use may have been imbued with sexual metaphor. As such, the most potent references to sex, reproduction and fertility in the early Neolithic may not be the exotic figures claimed to be ‘Mother Goddesses’ but located in the most mundane of domestic artefacts.

Chlorophyll-a in the rivers of eastern England

Chlorophyll-a concentration variations are described for two major river basins in England, the Humber and the Thames and related to catchment characteristics and nutrient concentrations across a range of rural, agricultural and urban/industrial settings. For all the rivers there are strong seasonal variations, with concentrations peaking in the spring and summer time when biological activity is at its highest. However, there are large variations in the magnitude of the seasonal effects across the rivers. For the spring-summer low-flow periods, average concentrations of chlorophyll-a correlate with soluble reactive phosphor-us (SRP). Chlorophyll-a is also correlated with particulate nitrogen (PN), organic carbon (POC) and suspended sediments. However, the strongest relationships are with catchment area and flow, where two straight line relationships are observed. The results indicate the importance of residence times for determining planktonic growth within the rivers. This is also indicated by the lack of chlorophyll-a response to lowering of SRP concentrations in several of the rivers in the area due to phosphorus stripping of effluents at major sewage treatment works. A key control on chlorophyll-a concentration may be the input of canal and reservoir waters during the growing period: this too relates to issues of residence times. However, there may well be a complex series of factors influencing residence time across the catchments due to features such as inhomogeneous flow within the catchments, a fractal distribution of stream channels that leads to a distribution of residence times and differences in planktonic inoculation sources. Industrial pollution on the Aire and Calder seems to have affected the relationship of chlorophyll-a with PN and POC. The results are discussed in relation to the Water Framework Directive. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour, size and recruitment in a wild bird

Indirect and direct models of sexual selection make different predictions regarding the quantitative genetic relationships between sexual ornaments and fitness. Indirect models predict that ornaments should have a high heritability and that strong positive genetic covariance should exist between fitness and the ornament. Direct models, on the other hand, make no such assumptions about the level of genetic variance in fitness and the ornament, and are therefore likely to be more important when environmental sources of variation are large. Here we test these predictions in a wild population of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus), a species in which plumage coloration has been shown to be under sexual selection. Using 3 years of cross-fostering data from over 250 breeding attempts, we partition the covariance between parental coloration and aspects of nestling fitness into a genetic and environmental component. Contrary to indirect models of sexual selection, but in agreement with direct models, we show that variation in coloration is only weakly heritable (h(2) < 0.11), and that two components of offspring fitness-nestling size and fledgling recruitment-are strongly dependent on parental effects, rather than genetic effects. Furthermore, there was no evidence of significant positive genetic covariation between parental colour and offspring traits. Contrary to direct benefit models, however, we find little evidence that variation in colour reliably indicates the level of parental care provided by either males or females. Taken together, these results indicate that the assumptions of indirect models of sexual selection are not supported by the genetic basis of the traits reported on here.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Change in the effect of constant photoperiods on the rate of sexual maturation in modern genotypes of domestic pullet

1. Data for modern egg-type hybrids reared on constant daylengths show that, as expected, they mature more quickly than earlier genotypes. However, the constant photoperiod which gives earliest sexual maturity has not changed as a result of selection and is 10 h for both early and modern genotypes. 2. Further analysis showed that the rate of delay in sexual maturity for constant photoperiods above 10 h is similar for modern and for early hybrids ( +0.29 d for each incremental one hour of photoperiod), the response of modern hybrids below 10 h ( +4.22 d for each one-hour reduction in photoperiod) is more than double that of early hybrids ( +1.71 d/h).