Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour, size and recruitment in a wild bird

Indirect and direct models of sexual selection make different predictions regarding the quantitative genetic relationships between sexual ornaments and fitness. Indirect models predict that ornaments should have a high heritability and that strong positive genetic covariance should exist between fitness and the ornament. Direct models, on the other hand, make no such assumptions about the level of genetic variance in fitness and the ornament, and are therefore likely to be more important when environmental sources of variation are large. Here we test these predictions in a wild population of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus), a species in which plumage coloration has been shown to be under sexual selection. Using 3 years of cross-fostering data from over 250 breeding attempts, we partition the covariance between parental coloration and aspects of nestling fitness into a genetic and environmental component. Contrary to indirect models of sexual selection, but in agreement with direct models, we show that variation in coloration is only weakly heritable (h(2) < 0.11), and that two components of offspring fitness-nestling size and fledgling recruitment-are strongly dependent on parental effects, rather than genetic effects. Furthermore, there was no evidence of significant positive genetic covariation between parental colour and offspring traits. Contrary to direct benefit models, however, we find little evidence that variation in colour reliably indicates the level of parental care provided by either males or females. Taken together, these results indicate that the assumptions of indirect models of sexual selection are not supported by the genetic basis of the traits reported on here.

The road not taken: observing a process of issue selection and model conceptualization

This article describes a case study involving information technology managers and their new programmer recruitment policy, but the primary interest is methodological. The processes of issue generation and selection and model conceptualization are described. Early use of “magnetic hexagons” allowed the generation of a range of issues, most of which would not have emerged if system dynamics elicitation techniques had been employed. With the selection of a specific issue, flow diagraming was used to conceptualize a model, computer implementation and scenario generation following naturally. Observations are made on the processes of system dynamics modeling, particularly on the need to employ general techniques of knowledge elicitation in the early stages of interventions. It is proposed that flexible approaches should be used to generate, select, and study the issues, since these reduce any biasing of the elicitation toward system dynamics problems and also allow the participants to take up the most appropriate problem- structuring approach.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Improving participatory varietal selection processes: participatory varietal selection and the role of informal seed diffusion mechanisms for upland rice in Ghana

This paper considers the process of Participatory Varietal Selection (PVS) and presents approaches and ideas based on PVS activities conducted on upland rice throughout Ghana between 1997 and 2003. In particular the role of informal seed systems in PVS is investigated and implications for PVS design are identified. PVS programmes were conducted in two main agroecological zones, Forest and Savannah, with 1,578 and 1,143 mm of annual rainfall, respectively, and between 40 and 100 varieties tested at each site. In the Savannah zone IR12979-24-1 was officially released and in the Forest zone IDSA 85 was widely accepted by farmers. Two surveys were conducted in an area of the Forest zone to study mechanisms of spread. Here small amounts (1-2 kg) of seed of selected varieties had been given to 94 farmers. In 2002, 37% of 2,289 farmers in communities surveyed had already grown a PVS variety and had obtained seed via informal mechanisms from other farmers, i.e. through gift, exchange or purchase. A modified approach for PVS is presented which enables important issues identified in the paper to be accommodated. These issues include: utilising existing seed spread mechanisms; facilitating formal release of acceptable varieties; assessing post-harvest traits, and; the need for PVS to be an ongoing and sustainable process.

Selection and sticklebacks

Over the last decade, there has been increasing circumstantial evidence for the action of natural selection in the genome, arising largely from molecular genetic surveys of large numbers of markers. In nonmodel organisms without densely mapped markers, a frequently used method is to identify loci that have unusually high or low levels of genetic differentiation, or low genetic diversity relative to other populations. The paper by Makinen et al. (2008a) in this issue of Molecular Ecology reports the results of a survey of microsatellite allele frequencies at more than 100 loci in seven populations of the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). They show that a microsatellite locus and two indel markers located within the intron of the Eda gene, known to control the number of lateral plates in the stickleback (Fig. 1), tend to be much more highly genetically differentiated than other loci, a finding that is consistent with the action of local selection. They identify a further two independent candidates for local selection, and, most intriguingly, they further suggest that up to 15% of their loci may provide evidence of balancing selection.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Kernel classifier construction using orthogonal forward selection and boosting with Fisher ratio class separability measure

A greedy technique is proposed to construct parsimonious kernel classifiers using the orthogonal forward selection method and boosting based on Fisher ratio for class separability measure. Unlike most kernel classification methods, which restrict kernel means to the training input data and use a fixed common variance for all the kernel terms, the proposed technique can tune both the mean vector and diagonal covariance matrix of individual kernel by incrementally maximizing Fisher ratio for class separability measure. An efficient weighted optimization method is developed based on boosting to append kernels one by one in an orthogonal forward selection procedure. Experimental results obtained using this construction technique demonstrate that it offers a viable alternative to the existing state-of-the-art kernel modeling methods for constructing sparse Gaussian radial basis function network classifiers. that generalize well.

On the utility of input selection and pruning for financial distress prediction models

Analyzes the use of linear and neural network models for financial distress classification, with emphasis on the issues of input variable selection and model pruning. A data-driven method for selecting input variables (financial ratios, in this case) is proposed. A case study involving 60 British firms in the period 1997-2000 is used for illustration. It is shown that the use of the Optimal Brain Damage pruning technique can considerably improve the generalization ability of a neural model. Moreover, the set of financial ratios obtained with the proposed selection procedure is shown to be an appropriate alternative to the ratios usually employed by practitioners.