A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Sequential variations of phytoplankton growth and mortality in an NPZ model: a remote-sensing-based assessment

Radiometric data in the visible domain acquired by satellite remote sensing have proven to be powerful for monitoring the states of the ocean, both physical and biological. With the help of these data it is possible to understand certain variations in biological responses of marine phytoplankton on ecological time scales. Here, we implement a sequential data-assimilation technique to estimate from a conventional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model the time variations of observed and unobserved variables. In addition, we estimate the time evolution of two biological parameters, namely, the specific growth rate and specific mortality of phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that: (i) the series of time-varying estimates of specific growth rate obtained by sequential data assimilation improves the fitting of the NPZ model to the satellite-derived time series: the model trajectories are closer to the observations than those obtained by implementing static values of the parameter; (ii) the estimates of unobserved variables, i.e., nutrient and zooplankton, obtained from an NPZ model by implementation of a pre-defined parameter evolution can be different from those obtained on applying the sequences of parameters estimated by assimilation; and (iii) the maximum estimated specific growth rate of phytoplankton in the study area is more sensitive to the sea-surface temperature than would be predicted by temperature-dependent functions reported previously. The overall results of the study are potentially useful for enhancing our understanding of the biological response of phytoplankton in a changing environment.

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Normative, systemic and procedural aspects: a review of indicator‐based sustainability assessments in agriculture

Several methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems have been developed. These methods do not fully: (i) take into account the multi‐functionality of agriculture; (ii) include multidimensionality; (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge; and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade‐offs. This paper reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator‐based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis, (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies. The top‐down farm assessments focus on field or farm assessment. They have a clear procedure for measuring the indicators and assessing the sustainability of the system, which allows for benchmarking across farms. The degree of participation is low, potentially affecting the implementation of the results negatively. The top‐down regional assessment assesses the on‐farm and the regional effects. They include some participation to increase acceptance of the results. However, they miss the analysis of potential trade‐offs. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches focus on a regional scale. Stakeholders are included throughout the whole process assuring the acceptance of the results and increasing the probability of implementation of developed measures. As they include the interaction between the indicators in their system representation, they allow for performing a trade‐off analysis. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.

Normative, systemic and procedural aspects: a review of indicator-based sustainability assessments in agriculture

Methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems do often not fully (i) take into account the multifunctionality of agriculture, (ii) include multidimensionality, (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade-offs. This chapter reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator-based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis and (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies: first, top-down farm assessments, which focus on field or farm assessment; second, top-down regional assessments, which assess the on-farm and the regional effects; and third, bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches, which focus on a regional scale. Our analysis shows that the bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.

Probiotics: their potential to impact human health

Probiotics—live microorganisms that when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host—have been studied for both human and animal applications, and worldwide research on this topic has accelerated in recent years. This paper reviews the literature on probiotics, describes how probiotics work in human ecosystems, and outlines the impact of probiotics on human health and disease. The paper also addresses safety issues of probiotic use, suggests future developments in the field of probiotics, and provides research and policy recommendations. Product considerations and potential future developments regarding probiotics also are discussed. The authors conclude that controlled human studies have revealed a diverse range of health benefits from consumption of probiotics, due largely to their impact on immune function or on microbes colonizing the body. Additional, well-designed and properly controlled human and mechanistic studies with probiotics will advance the essential understanding of active principles, mechanisms of action, and degree of effects that can be realized by specific consumer groups. Recommendations include establishment of a standard of identity for the term “probiotic,” adoption of third-party verification of label claims, use of probiotics selectively in clinical conditions, and use of science-based assessment of the benefits and risks of genetically engineered probiotic microbes.

Fine root biomass and turnover in southern taiga estimated by root inclusion nets

Fine roots play an important part in forest carbon, nutrient and water cycles. The turnover of fine roots constitutes a major carbon input to soils. Estimation of fine root turnover is difficult, labour intensive and is often compounded by artefacts created by soil disturbance. In this work, an alternative approach of using inclusion nets installed in an undisturbed soil profile was used to measure fine root production and was compared to the in-growth core method. There was no difference between fine root production estimated by the two methods in three southern taiga sites with contrasting soil conditions and tree species composition in the Central Forest State Biosphere Reserve, Russia. Expressed as annual production over standing biomass, Norway spruce fine root turnover was in the region of 0.10 to 0.24 y-1. The inclusion net technique is suitable for field based assessment of fine root production. There are several advantages over the in-growth core method, due to non-disturbance of the soil profile and its potential for very high rate of replication.

Identification of metabolites in human hepatic bile using 800 MHz 1H NMR spectroscopy, HPLC-NMR/MS and UPLC-MS

The first application of high field NMR spectroscopy (800 MHz for 1H observation) to human hepatic bile (as opposed to gall bladder bile) is reported. The bile sample used for detailed investigation was from a donor liver with mild fat infiltration, collected during organ retrieval prior to transplantation. In addition, to focus on the detection of bile acids in particular, a bile extract was analysed by 800 MHz 1H NMR spectroscopy, HPLC-NMR/MS and UPLC-MS. In the whole bile sample, 40 compounds have been assigned with the aid of two-dimensional 1H–1H TOCSY and 1H–13C HSQC spectra. These include phosphatidylcholine, 14 amino acids, 10 organic acids, 4 carbohydrates and polyols (glucose, glucuronate, glycerol and myo-inositol), choline, phosphocholine, betaine, trimethylamine-N-oxide and other small molecules. An initial NMR-based assessment of the concentration range of some key metabolites has been made. Some observed chemical shifts differ from expected database values, probably due to a difference in bulk diamagnetic susceptibility. The NMR spectra of the whole extract gave identification of the major bile acids (cholic, deoxycholic and chenodeoxycholic), but the glycine and taurine conjugates of a given bile acid could not be distinguished. However, this was achieved by HPLC-NMR/MS, which enabled the separation and identification of ten conjugated bile acids with relative abundances varying from approximately 0.1% (taurolithocholic acid) to 34.0% (glycocholic acid), of which, only the five most abundant acids could be detected by NMR, including the isomers glycodeoxycholic acid and glycochenodeoxycholic acid, which are difficult to distinguish by conventional LC-MS analysis. In a separate experiment, the use of UPLC-MS allowed the detection and identification of 13 bile acids. This work has shown the complementary potential of NMR spectroscopy, MS and hyphenated NMR/MS for elucidating the complex metabolic profile of human hepatic bile. This will be useful baseline information in ongoing studies of liver excretory function and organ transplantation.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Syndromic approach to arboviral diagnostics for global travelers as a basis for infectious disease surveillance

Background Arboviruses have overlapping geographical distributions and can cause symptoms that coincide with more common infections. Therefore, arbovirus infections are often neglected by travel diagnostics. Here, we assessed the potential of syndrome-based approaches for diagnosis and surveillance of neglected arboviral diseases in returning travelers. Method To map the patients high at risk of missed clinical arboviral infections we compared the quantity of all arboviral diagnostic requests by physicians in the Netherlands, from 2009 through 2013, with a literature-based assessment of the travelers’ likely exposure to an arbovirus. Results 2153 patients, with travel and clinical history were evaluated. The diagnostic assay for dengue virus (DENV) was the most commonly requested (86%). Of travelers returning from Southeast Asia with symptoms compatible with chikungunya virus (CHIKV), only 55% were tested. For travelers in Europe, arbovirus diagnostics were rarely requested. Over all, diagnostics for most arboviruses were requested only on severe clinical presentation. Conclusion Travel destination and syndrome were used inconsistently for triage of diagnostics, likely resulting in vast under-diagnosis of arboviral infections of public health significance. This study shows the need for more awareness among physicians and standardization of syndromic diagnostic algorithms

Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is organised around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments, comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.