The long-run performance of IPOs: the case of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius

This study examines the long-run performance of initial public offerings on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the 3-year equally weighted cumulative adjusted returns average −16.5%. The magnitude of this underperformance is consistent with most reported studies in different developed and emerging markets. Based on multivariate regression models, firms with small issues and higher ex ante financial strength seem on average to experience greater long-run underperformance, supporting the divergence of opinion and overreaction hypotheses. On the other hand, Mauritian firms do not on average time their offerings to lower cost of capital and as such, there seems to be limited support for the windows of opportunity hypothesis.

A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run

FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

Test performance indicators from a single soccer specific fitness test differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players

Aim. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a single soccer specific fitness test (SSFT) could differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players in selected test performance indicators. Methods. Subjects: 13 Academy Scholars (AS) from a professional soccer club and 10 Recreational Players (RP) agreed to participate in this study. Test 1-(V)over dotO(2) max was estimated from a progressive shuttle run test to exhaustion. Test 2-The SSFT was controlled by an automated procedure and alternated between walking, sprinting, jogging and cruise running speeds. Three activity blocks (1A, 2A and 3A) were separated by 3 min rest periods in which blood lactate samples were drawn. The 3 blocks of activity (Part A) were followed by 10 min of exercise at speeds alternating between jogging and cruise running (Part B). Results. Estimated (V)over dotO(2) max did not significantly differ between groups, although a trend for a higher aerobic capacity was evident in AS (p<0.09). Exercising heart rates did not differ between AS and RP, however, recovery heart rates taken from the 3 min rest periods were significantly lower in AS compared with RP following blocks 1A (124.65 b(.)min(-1) +/-7.73 and 133.98 b(.)min(-1) +/-6.63), (p<0.05) and 3A (129.91 b.min(-1) +/-10.21 and 138.85 b.min(-1) +/-8.70), (p<0.01). Blood lactate concentrations were significantly elevated in AS in comparison to RP following blocks 2A (6.91 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.67 and 4.74 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.28) and 3A (7.18 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.97 and 4.88 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.50), (p<0.05). AS sustained significantly faster average sprint times in block 3A compared with RP (3.18 sec +/-0.12 and 3.31 sec +/-0.12), (p<0.05). Conclusion. The results of this study show that highly trained soccer players are able to sustain, and more quickly recover from, high intensity intermittent exercise.

Milling performance of north European hull-less barleys and characterization of resultant millstreams

Four hull-less barley samples were milled on a Buhler MLU 202 laboratory mill and individual and combined milling fractions were characterized. The best milling performance was obtained when the samples were conditioned to 14.3% moisture. Yields were 37-48% for straight-run flour, 47-56% for shorts, and 5-8% for bran. The beta-glucan contents of the straight-run white flours were 1.6-2.1%, of which approximate to49% was water-extractable. The arabinoxylan contents were 1.2-1.5%, of which approximate to17% was water-extractable. Shorts and bran fractions contained more beta-glucan (4.2-5.8% and 3.0-4.7%, respectively) and arabinoxylan (6.1-7.7% and 8.1-11.8%, respectively) than the white flours. For those fractions, beta-glucan extractability was high (58.5 and 52.3%, respectively), whereas arabinoxylan extractability was very low (approximate to6.5 and 2.0%, respectively). The straight-run white flours had low alpha-amylase, beta-glucanase, and endoxylanase activities. The highest alpha-amylase activity was found in the shorts fractions and the highest beta-glucanase and endoxylanase activities were generally found in the bran fractions. Endoxylanase inhibitor activities were low in the white flours and highest in the shorts fractions. High flavanoid, tocopherol, and tocotrienol contents were found in bran and shorts fractions.

The persistence of real estate fund performance

This paper examines the short and long-term persistence of tax-exempt real estate funds in the UK through the use of winner-loser contingency table methodology. The persistence tests are applied to a database of varying numbers of funds from a low of 16 to a high of 27 using quarterly returns over the 12 years from 1990 Q1 to 2001 Q4. The overall conclusion is that the real estate funds in the UK show little evidence of persistence in the short-term (quarterly and semi-annual data) or for data over a considerable length of time (bi-annual to six yearly intervals). In contrast, the results are better for annual data with evidence of significant performance persistence. Thus at this stage, it seems that an annual evaluation period, provides the best discrimination of the winner and loser phenomenon in the real estate market. This result is different from equity and bond studies, where it seems that the repeat winner phenomenon is stronger over shorter periods of evaluation. These results require careful interpretation, however, as the results show that when only small samples are used significant adjustments must be made to correct for small sample bias and second the conclusions are sensitive to the length of the evaluation period and specific test used. Nonetheless, it seems that persistence in performance of real estate funds in the UK does exist, at least for the annual data, and it appears to be a guide to beating the pack in the long run. Furthermore, although the evidence of persistence in performance for the overall sample of funds is limited, we have found evidence that two funds were consistent winners over this period, whereas no one fund could be said to be a consistent loser.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

Predicting the annual performance of UK real estate: timeliness versus coverage

The IPD Annual Index is the largest and most comprehensive Real Estate market index available in the UK Such coverage however inevitably leads to delays in publication. In contrast there are a number of quarterly and monthly indices which are published within days of the year end but which lack the coverage in terms of size and numbers of properties. This paper analyses these smaller but more timely indices to see whether such indices can be used to predict the performance of the IPD Annual Index. Using a number of measures of forecasting accuracy it is shown that the smaller indices provide unbiased and efficient predictions of the IPD Annual Index. Such indices also significantly outperform a naive no-change model. Although no one index performs significantly better than the others. The more timely indices however do not perfectly track the IPD Annual Index. As a result any short run predictions of performance will be subject to a degree of error. Nevertheless the more timely indices, although lacking authoritative coverage, provide a valuable service to investors giving good estimates of Real Estates performance well before the publication of the IPD Annual Index.

Statistical monitoring of student performance: an early warning system

Weekly monitoring of profiles of student performances on formative and summative coursework throughout the year can be used to quickly identify those who need additional help, possibly due to acute and sudden-onset problems. Such an early-warning system can help retention, but also assist students in overcoming problems early on, thus helping them fulfil their potential in the long run. We have developed a simple approach for the automatic monitoring of student mark profiles for individual modules, which we intend to trial in the near future. Its ease of implementation means that it can be used for very large cohorts with little additional effort when marks are already collected and recorded on a spreadsheet.