Accounting for risk aversion in repeated prisoners’ dilemma games: an experimental test

We apply experimental methods to study the role of risk aversion on players’ behavior in repeated prisoners’ dilemma games. Faced with quantitatively equal discount factors, the most risk-averse players will choose Nash strategies more often in the presence of uncertainty than when future profits are discounted in a deterministic way. Overall, we find that risk aversion relates negatively with the frequency of collusive outcomes.

The Kasparov-World Match

The Kasparov-World match was initiated by Microsoft with sponsorship from the bank First USA. The concept was that Garry Kasparov as White would play the rest of the world on the Web: one ply would be played per day and the World Team was to vote for its move. The Kasparov-World game was a success from many points of view. It certainly gave thousands the feeling of facing the world’s best player across the board and did much for the future of the game. Described by Kasparov as “phenomenal ... the most complex in chess history”, it is probably a worthy ‘Greatest Game’ candidate. Computer technology has given chess a new mode of play and taken it to new heights: the experiment deserves to be repeated. We look forward to another game and experience of this quality although it will be difficult to surpass the event we have just enjoyed. We salute and thank all those who contributed - sponsors, moderator, coaches, unofficial analysts, organisers, technologists, voters and our new friends.

Formulating generalised 'goal games' against nature: An illustration from decision-making under uncertainty in agriculture

The games-against-nature approach to the analysis of uncertainty in decision-making relies on the assumption that the behaviour of a decision-maker can be explained by concepts such as maximin, minimax regret, or a similarly defined criterion. In reality, however, these criteria represent a spectrum and, the actual behaviour of a decision-maker is most likely to embody a mixture of such idealisations. This paper proposes that in game-theoretic approach to decision-making under uncertainty, a more realistic representation of a decision-maker's behaviour can be achieved by synthesising games-against-nature with goal programming into a single framework. The proposed formulation is illustrated by using a well-known example from the literature on mathematical programming models for agricultural-decision-making. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Children playing branded video games: The impact of interactivity on product placement effectiveness

This study extends product placement research by testing the impact of interactivity on product placement effectiveness. The results suggest that when children cannot interact with the placements in video games, perceptual fluency is the underlying mechanism leading to positive affect. Therefore, the effects are only evident in a stimulus-based choice where the same stimulus is provided as a cue. However, when children have the opportunity to interact with the placements in video games, they may be influenced by conceptual fluency. Thus, placements are still effective in a memory-based choice where no stimulus is provided as a cue. Keywords: Perceptual fluency; Conceptual fluency; Video games; Interactivity; Children; Product placement

Minimum recovery time between reactive hyperemia stimulus in the repeated measurement of brachial flow-mediated dilatation.

The ability to undertake repeat measurements of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) within a short time of a previous measurement would be useful to improve accuracy or to repeat a failed initial procedure. Although standard methods report that a minimum of 10 min is required between measurements, there is no published data to support this. Thirty healthy volunteers had five FMD measurements performed within a 2-h period, separated by various time intervals (5, 15 and 30 min). In 19 volunteers, FMD was also performed as soon as the vessel had returned to its baseline diameter. There was no significant difference between any of the FMD measurements or parameters across the visits indicating that repeat measurements may be taken after a minimum of 5 min or as soon as the vessel has returned to its baseline diameter, which in some subjects may be less than 5 min.

Effects of repeated cycles of acid challenge and growth on the phenotype and virulence of Salmonella enterica

Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate how stresses like low pH, which may be encountered in farms or food preparation premises, shape populations of Salmonella enterica by the selection of stress-resistant variants. Methods and Results: Stationary-phase cultures of S. enterica serovar Enteritidis and serovar Typhimurium (one strain of each) were exposed to pH 2Æ5 for up to 4 h, followed by growth at pH 7 for 48 h. This process was repeated 15 times in two separate experiments, which increased the acid resistance of the three out of four populations we obtained, by three- to fourfold. Sustainable variants derived from the populations showed changes in colony morphology, expression of SEF17 fimbriae, growth, increased heat resistance and reduced virulence. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that low pH environments can select for populations of S. enterica with persistent phenotypic changes such as increased acid resistance and occasionally increased SEF17 expression and lower virulence. Significance and Impact of the Study: There is a common belief that increased acid resistance coincides with increased virulence. This study demonstrates for the first time that increased acid resistance often impairs virulence and affects the general phenotype of S. enterica.

Measuring the value of “all play and no work”: can rigorous assessment of simulation games drive innovative teaching in construction?

The construction field is dynamic and dominated by complex, ill-defined problems for which myriad possible solutions exist. Teaching students to solve construction-related problems requires an understanding of the nature of these complex problems as well as the implementation of effective instructional strategies to address them. Traditional approaches to teaching construction planning and management have long been criticized for presenting students primarily with well-defined problems - an approach inconsistent with the challenges encountered in the industry. However, growing evidence suggests that employing innovative teaching approaches, such as interactive simulation games, offers more active, hands-on and problem-based learning opportunities for students to synthesize and test acquired knowledge more closely aligned with real-life construction scenarios. Simulation games have demonstrated educational value in increasing student problem solving skills and motivation through critical attributes such as interaction and feedback-supported active learning. Nevertheless, broad acceptance of simulation games in construction engineering education remains limited. While recognizing benefits, research focused on the role of simulation games in educational settings lacks a unified approach to developing, implementing and evaluating these games. To address this gap, this paper provides an overview of the challenges associated with evaluating the effectiveness of simulation games in construction education that still impede their wide adoption. An overview of the current status, as well as the results from recently implemented Virtual Construction Simulator (VCS) game at Penn State provide lessons learned, and are intended to guide future efforts in developing interactive simulation games to reach their full potential.

Gender differences in ultimatum games: despite rather than due to risk attitudes

We analyze experimental data obtained from an ultimatum game framed as a situation of employee-employer negotiation over salaries. Parallel to this, we elicit subjects' risk attitudes. In the existing literature, it has often been conjectured that gender differences in strategic environments are partly due to differences in risky decision making. Our evidence suggests that both gender and risk-related effects co-exist in ultimatum bargaining. However, differences in risk attitudes cannot explain gender effects in ultimatum bargaining.