Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway renewable power system

UK wind-power capacity is increasing and new transmission links are proposed with Norway, where hydropower dominates the electricity mix. Weather affects both these renewable resources and the demand for electricity. The dominant large-scale pattern of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), associated with positive correlations in wind, temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. The NAO's effect on wind-power and demand in the UK and Norway is examined, focussing on March when Norwegian hydropower reserves are low and the combined power system might be most susceptible to atmospheric variations. The NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis dataset (1948–2010) is used to drive simple models for demand and wind-power, and ‘demand-net-wind’ (DNW) is estimated for positive, neutral and negative NAO states. Cold, calm conditions in NAO− cause increased demand and decreased wind-power compared to other NAO states. Under a 2020 wind-power capacity scenario, the increase in DNW in NAO− relative to NAO neutral is equivalent to nearly 25% of the present-day average rate of March Norwegian hydropower usage. As the NAO varies on long timescales (months to decades), and there is potentially some skill in monthly predictions, we argue that it is important to understand its impact on European power systems.

Design and techno-economic evaluation of microbial oil production as a renewable resource for biodiesel and oleochemical production

Experimental results from the open literature have been employed for the design and techno-economic evaluation of four process flowsheets for the production of microbial oil or biodiesel. The fermentation of glucose-based media using the yeast strain Rhodosporidium toruloides has been considered. Biodiesel production was based on the exploitation of either direct transesterification (without extraction of lipids from microbial biomass) or indirect transesterifaction of extracted microbial oil. When glucose-based renewable resources are used as carbon source for an annual production capacity of 10,000 t microbial oil and zero cost of glucose (assuming development of integrated biorefineries in existing industries utilising waste or by-product streams) the estimated unitary cost of purified microbial oil is $3.4/kg. Biodiesel production via indirect transesterification of extracted microbial oil proved more cost-competitive process compared to the direct conversion of dried yeast cells. For a price of glucose of $400/t oil production cost and biodiesel production cost are estimated to be $5.5/kg oil and $5.9/kg biodiesel, correspondingly. Industrial implementation of microbial oil production from oleaginous yeast is strongly dependent on the feedstock used and on the fermentation stage where significantly higher productivities and final microbial oil concentrations should be achieved.

A study into the accuracy of using meteorological wind data to estimate turbine generation output

Meteorological (met) station data is used as the basis for a number of influential studies into the impacts of the variability of renewable resources. Real turbine output data is not often easy to acquire, whereas meteorological wind data, supplied at a standardised height of 10 m, is widely available. This data can be extrapolated to a standard turbine height using the wind profile power law and used to simulate the hypothetical power output of a turbine. Utilising a number of met sites in such a manner can develop a model of future wind generation output. However, the accuracy of this extrapolation is strongly dependent on the choice of the wind shear exponent alpha. This paper investigates the accuracy of the simulated generation output compared to reality using a wind farm in North Rhins, Scotland and a nearby met station in West Freugh. The results show that while a single annual average value for alpha may be selected to accurately represent the long term energy generation from a simulated wind farm, there are significant differences between simulation and reality on an hourly power generation basis, with implications for understanding the impact of variability of renewables on short timescales, particularly system balancing and the way that conventional generation may be asked to respond to a high level of variable renewable generation on the grid in the future.

Cost function for sub-agent elements in multi-agent energy management system

Distributed generation plays a key role in reducing CO2 emissions and losses in transmission of power. However, due to the nature of renewable resources, distributed generation requires suitable control strategies to assure reliability and optimality for the grid. Multi-agent systems are perfect candidates for providing distributed control of distributed generation stations as well as providing reliability and flexibility for the grid integration. The proposed multi-agent energy management system consists of single-type agents who control one or more gird entities, which are represented as generic sub-agent elements. The agent applies one control algorithm across all elements and uses a cost function to evaluate the suitability of the element as a supplier. The behavior set by the agent's user defines which parameters of an element have greater weight in the cost function, which allows the user to specify the preference on suppliers dynamically. This study shows the ability of the multi-agent energy management system to select suppliers according to the selection behavior given by the user. The optimality of the supplier for the required demand is ensured by the cost function based on the parameters of the element.

Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Influence of agricultural management, sward structure and food resources on grassland field use by birds in lowland England.

Agricultural management of grassland in lowland Britain has changed fundamentally in the last 50 years, resulting in spatial and structural uniformity within the pastoral landscape. The full extent to which these changes may have reduced the suitability of grassland as foraging habitat for birds is unknown. This study investigated the mechanisms by which these changes have impacted on birds and their food supplies. We quantified field use by birds in summer and winter in two grassland areas of lowland England (Devon and Buckinghamshire) over 3 years, relating bird occurrence to the management, sward structure and seed and invertebrate food resources of individual fields. Management intensity was defined in terms of annual nitrogen input. There was no consistent effect of management intensity on total seed head production, although those of grasses generally increased with inputs while forbs were rare throughout. Relationships between management intensity and abundance of soil and epigeal invertebrates were complex. Soil beetle larvae were consistently lower in abundance, and surface-active beetle larvae counts consistently higher, in intensively managed fields. Foliar invertebrates showed more consistent negatively relationships with management intensity. Most bird species occurred at low densities. There were consistent relationships across regions and years between the occurrence of birds and measures of field management. In winter, there was a tendency towards higher occupancy of intensively managed fields by species feeding on soil invertebrates. In summer, there were few such relationships, although many species avoided fields with tall swards. Use of fields by birds was generally not related to measures of seed or invertebrate food abundance. While granivorous species were perhaps too rare to detect a relationship, in insectivores the strong negative relationships (in summer) with sward height suggested that access to food may be the critical factor. While it appears that intensification of grassland management has been deleterious to the summer food resources of insectivorous birds that use insects living within the grass sward, intensification may have been beneficial to several species in winter through the enhancement of soil invertebrates. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that attempts to restore habitat quality for birds in grassland landscapes need to create a range of management intensities and sward structures at the field and farm scales. A greater understanding of methods to enhance prey accessibility, as well as abundance, for insectivorous birds is required.