Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959–2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability.

Partnership in the provision of recreational access: the reconstruction of the public interest in private land in England and Wales

This paper examines the evolution of public rights of access to private land in England and Wales. Since the Eighteenth Century the administration and protection of these rights has been though a form of public/private partnership in which the judiciary, while maintaining the dominance of private property, have safeguarded de facto public access by refusing consistently to punish simple trespass. While this situation has been modified, principally by post-World War II legislation, to allow for some formalisation of access arrangements and consequent compensation to landowners in areas of high recreational pressure and low legal accessibility, recent policy initiatives suggest that the balance of the partnership has now shifted in favour of landowners. In particular, the new access payment schemes, developed by the UK Government in response to the European Commission's Agri-Environment Regulations, identify the landowner as the beneficiary of the partnership, financed by tax revenue and justified on the spurious basis of improved 'access provision'. As such the State, as the former upholder of citizen rights, now assumes the duplicitous position of underwriting private property ownership through the commodification of access, while proclaiming a significant improvement in citizens' access rights.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 2: A new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field

We present a new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, B) for 1846–2012 with a full analysis of errors, based on the homogeneously constructed IDV(1d)composite of geomagnetic activity presented in Part 1 (Lockwood et al., 2013a). Analysis of the dependence of the commonly used geomagnetic indices on solar wind parameters is presented which helps explain why annual means of interdiurnal range data, such as the new composite, depend only on the IMF with only a very weak influence of the solar wind flow speed. The best results are obtained using a polynomial (rather than a linear) fit of the form B = χ · (IDV(1d) − β)α with best-fit coefficients χ = 3.469, β = 1.393 nT, and α = 0.420. The results are contrasted with the reconstruction of the IMF since 1835 by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010).

On the long-term interannual variability of the east Asian winter monsoon

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and Siberian High (SH) are inherently related, based on prior studies of instrumental data available for recent decades (since 1958). Here we develop an extended instrumental EAWM index since 1871 that correlates significantly with the SH. These two indices show common modes of variation on the biennial (2-3 year) time scale. We also develop an index of the pressure gradient between the SH and the Aleutian Low, a gradient which critically impacts EAWM variability. This difference series, based on tree-ring reconstructions of the SH and the North Pacific Index (NPI) over the past 400 years, shows that the weakening of this gradient in recent decades has not been unusual in a long-term context. Correlations between the SH series and a tree-ring reconstruction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest a variable tropical-higher latitude teleconnection.

A revision of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae, with a discussion on the phylogenetic positions of the Tarsophlebiidae and Sieblosiidae (Insecta, Odonatoptera, Panodonata)

The Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae is revised. The type species of the type genus Tarsophlebia Hagen, 1866, T eximia (Hagen, 1862) from the Upper Jurassic Solnhofen Limestones, is redescribed, including important new information on its head, legs, wings, anal appendages and male secondary genital apparatus. The type specimen of Tarsophlebiopsis mayi Tillyard, 1923 is regarded as an aberrant or unusually preserved Tarsophlebia eximia. One new species of Tarsophlebia and three new species of Turanophlebia are described, i.e. Tarsophlebia minor n. sp., Turanophlebia anglicana n. sp., T mongolica n. sp., and T. vitimensis n. sp. A new combination is proposed for Turanophlebia neckini (Martynov, 1927) n. comb. The phylogenetic relationships of the Mesozoic Tarsophlebiidae are discussed on the basis of new body and wing venation characters. The present analysis supports a rather derived position for the Tarsophlebiidae, as sister group of the the Epiproctophora rather than of (Zygoptera + Epiproctophora). Also, through the present discussion, the Oligo-Miocene family Sieblosiidae seems to be more closely related to the Epiproctophora than to the Zygoptera. But the present study and previous analyses suffer of the lack of informations concerning the more inclusive groups of Odonatoptera, viz. Protozygoptera, Triadophlebiomorpha, Protanisoptera, etc. The significance of the tarsophlebiid secondary male genital apparatus for the reconstruction of the evolution of odonate copulation is discussed.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

Holocene environmental changes in the lower Thames Valley, London, UK: implications for our understanding of the history of Taxus woodland

A radiocarbon-dated multiproxy palaeoenvironmental record from the Lower Thames Valley at Hornchurch Marshes has provided a reconstruction of the timing and nature of vegetation succession against a background of Holocene climate change, relative sea level movement and human activities. The investigation recorded widespread peat formation between c. 6300 and 3900 cal. yr BP (marine ‘regression’), succeeded by evidence for marine incursion. The multiproxy analyses of these sediments, comprising pollen, Coleoptera, diatoms, and plant and wood macrofossils, have indicated significant changes in both the wetland and dryland environment, including the establishment of Alnus (Alder) carr woodland, and the decline of both Ulmus (Elm; c. 5740 cal. yr BP) and Tilia (Lime; c. 5600 cal. yr BP, and 4160–3710 cal. yr BP). The beetle faunas from the peat also suggest a thermal climate similar to that of the present day. At c. 4900 cal. yr BP, Taxus (L.; Yew) woodland colonised the peatland forming a plant community that has no known modern analogue in the UK. The precise reason, or reasons, for this event remain unclear, although changes in peatland hydrology seem most likely. The growth of Taxus on peatland not only has considerable importance for our knowledge of the vegetation history of southeast England, and NW Europe generally, but also has wider implications for the interpretation of Holocene palaeobotanical records. At c. 3900 cal. yr BP, Taxus declined on the peatland surface during a period of major hydrological change (marine incursion), an event also strongly associated with the decline of dryland woodland taxa, including Tilia and Quercus, and the appearance of anthropogenic indicators.

Mechanism of the Escherichia coli DNA T:G-mismatch endonuclease (Vsr protein) probed with thiophosphate-containing oligodeoxynucleotides

The mechanism of the Escherichia coli DNA T:G mismatch endonuclease (Vsr) has been investigated using oligodeoxynucleotides substituted, at the scissile phosphate, with isomeric phosphorothioates and a 3'-phosphorothiolate. Binding and kinetic data with the phosphorothioates/phosphorothiolate indicate that the two magnesium ions, which constitute essential co-factors, are required to stabilise the extra negative charge developed on the phosphate as the transition state is formed. Additionally one of the magnesium ions serves to activate the leaving group (the non-bridging 3'-oxygen atom of the scissile phosphate) during the hydrolysis reaction. Stereochemical analysis, using the R-p phosphorothioate isomer, indicates that Vsr carries out a hydrolytic reaction with inversion of stereochemistry at phosphorus, compatible with an in-line attack of water and a pentacovalent transition state with trigonal bipyramidal geometry. In conjunction with structures of Vsr bound to its products, these data allow the reconstruction of the enzyme-substrate complex and a comprehensive description of the hydrolysis mechanism. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Towards the automatic reconstruction of dendritic trees using particle filters

The 3D reconstruction of a Golgi-stained dendritic tree from a serial stack of images captured with a transmitted light bright-field microscope is investigated. Modifications to the bootstrap filter are discussed such that the tree structure may be estimated recursively as a series of connected segments. The tracking performance of the bootstrap particle filter is compared against Differential Evolution, an evolutionary global optimisation method, both in terms of robustness and accuracy. It is found that the particle filtering approach is significantly more robust and accurate for the data considered.

Historicizing counterurbanization: in-migration and the reconstruction of rural space in Berkshire (UK), 1901-51

This article uses census data for Berkshire to argue that large-scale counterurbanization began much earlier than is generally recognized in some parts of southern England. This was not just movement down the urban hierarchy, which as Pooley and Turnbull have demonstrated was a long-term feature of England’s settlement system, but in some cases at least amenity-driven migration to rural areas of the kind increasingly recognized as a core component of recent counterurbanization. Despite a reduction of acreage Berkshire’s rural districts saw a 54% rise in population between 1901 and 1951. The sub-regional pattern of growth is assessed to gauge whether ‘clean break’ migration to the remote west of the county (which remained effectively out of commuting range from London throughout the period) was taking place, or whether counterurbanization was confined to the more accessible eastern districts. However, whilst population did increase in both west and east, it was in fact the central districts that grew most impressively. Three case study parishes are investigated in order to gauge the nature and consequences of counterurbanization at a local level. Professional and business migrants figure prominently, seeking to preserve and promote the rural attributes of their new communities, without however cutting their ties to urban centres. It is argued that migration to rural Berkshire in the first half of the twentieth century cannot adequately be described either as a form of extended suburbanization or an anti-metropolitan ‘clean break’. Rather, early counterurbanization marks the first stage on the long road to a post-productivist countryside, in which countryside becomes detached from agriculture, there is socio-economic convergence between town and country, and the ‘rural’ increasingly becomes defined by landscape and identity rather than economic function.