The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Metacognitive experience and transfer of logical reasoning

The experiments examine the influence of metacognitive experience on the transfer of logical processes in a problem solving setting. Subjects were presented with two versions of Wason's (1966) selection task. Although they were able to perform successfully on the concrete tasks (following a minimal explanation of the correct solution on an initial trial), the majority were not able to transfer a successful method to the abstract tasks. Verbalization during, or following, the concrete tasks produced substantial transfer effects however. It is suggested that verbalization may lead to an increased awareness of past behaviour, particularly of those aspects necessary for successful solution.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach to overcome biases that arise when using amplified fragment length polymorphism markers to study population structure

There is great interest in using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers because they are inexpensive and easy to produce. It is, therefore, possible to generate a large number of markers that have a wide coverage of species genotnes. Several statistical methods have been proposed to study the genetic structure using AFLP's but they assume Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and do not estimate the inbreeding coefficient, F-IS. A Bayesian method has been proposed by Holsinger and colleagues that relaxes these simplifying assumptions but we have identified two sources of bias that can influence estimates based on these markers: (i) the use of a uniform prior on ancestral allele frequencies and (ii) the ascertainment bias of AFLP markers. We present a new Bayesian method that avoids these biases by using an implementation based on the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm. This new method estimates population-specific F-IS and F-ST values and offers users the possibility of taking into account the criteria for selecting the markers that are used in the analyses. The software is available at our web site (http://www-leca.uif-grenoble.fi-/logiciels.htm). Finally, we provide advice on how to avoid the effects of ascertainment bias.

Processing biases in eating disorders: the impact of temporal factors

Objective: Previous research has indicated that temporal factors [specifically, the duration of interstimulus intervals (ISI) during a threat processing task] may influence the nature of processing biases exhibited in nonclinical populations with some degree of eating disorder psychopathology (Meyer et al., Int J Eat Disord, 27, 405-410, 2000). The current study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating attentional biases for eating-disorder-relevant images and irrelevant visual images (animals) in patients with eating disorders (n = 23) and psychiatric (n = 19) and nonpsychiatric (n = 65) controls. Method: A dot probe task was modified from previous research (Shafran et al., Int Eat Disord, 40, 369-380, 2007), whereby an original ISI of 500 ms was increased to 2.000 ms. Results: Patients with an eating disorder continued to display a bias in the processing of weight stimuli. However, biases noted in previous research for shape and weight stimuli disappeared when the ISI duration was increased in this way. Conclusion: These findings highlight the importance of temporal factors in whether processing biases are displayed and may point to ways in which biases actually work in this population. However, further research is warranted. (C) 2008 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Strategies and biases in location memory in Williams syndrome

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) demonstrate impaired visuo-spatial abilities in comparison to their level of verbal ability. In particular, visuo-spatial construction is an area of relative weakness. It has been hypothesised that poor or atypical location coding abilities contribute strongly to the impaired abilities observed on construction and drawing tasks [Farran, E. K., & Jarrold, C. (2005). Evidence for unusual spatial location coding in Williams syndrome: An explanation for the local bias in visuo-spatial construction tasks? Brain and Cognition, 59, 159-172; Hoffman, J. E., Landau, B., & Pagani, B. (2003). Spatial breakdown in spatial construction: Evidence from eye fixations in children with Williams syndrome. Cognitive Psychology, 46, 260-301]. The current experiment investigated location memory in WS. Specifically, the precision of remembered locations was measured as well as the biases and strategies that were involved in remembering those locations. A developmental trajectory approach was employed; WS performance was assessed relative to the performance of typically developing (TD) children ranging from 4- to 8-year-old. Results showed differential strategy use in the WS and TD groups. WS performance was most similar to the level of a TD 4-year-old and was additionally impaired by the addition of physical category boundaries. Despite their low level of ability, the WS group produced a pattern of biases in performance which pointed towards evidence of a subdivision effect, as observed in TD older children and adults. In contrast, the TD children showed a different pattern of biases, which appears to be explained by a normalisation strategy. In summary, individuals with WS do not process locations in a typical manner. This may have a negative impact on their visuo-spatial construction and drawing abilities. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.