Detecting abnormal and collusive bids in capped tendering

Recent developments in the area of Bid Tender Forecasting have enabled bidders to implement new types of easy-to-use tools for increasing their chances of winning contracts. Although these new tools (such as iso-Score Curve Graphs, Scoring Probability Graphs, and Position Probability Graphs) are designed for bidders in capped tendering (tenders with an upper price limit), some of their principles can also be applied by a Contracting Authority to detect which bidders do not follow a standard pattern, that is, their bids are extremely high or low. Since a collusive bid generally needs to be sufficiently high or low to make an impact on the bid distribution, any person in charge of supervising capped tenders can be alerted to any bidder that might be involved in a cartel after identifying the same abnormal behavior in a series of tenders through simple calculations and a new type of graph.

Institutional sustainability: at what price? UNDP and the new cost-sharing model in Brazil

By the turn of the twenty-first century, UNDP had embraced a new form of funding based on ‘cost-sharing’, with this source accounting for 51 per cent of the organisation’s total expenditure worldwide in 2000. Unlike the traditional donor - recipient relationship so common with development projects, the new cost-sharing modality has created a situation whereby UNDP local offices become ‘subcontractors’ and agencies of the recipient countries become ‘clients’. This paper explores this transition in the context of Brazil, focusing on how the new modality may have compromised UNDP’s ability to promote Sustainable Human Development, as established in its mandate. The great enthusiasm for this modality within the UN system and its potential application to other developing countries increase the importance of a systematic assessment of its impact and developmental consequences.

Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

Temperature sensitivity of the low-moisture-content limit to negative seed longevity-moisture content relationships in hermetic storage

Background and Aims The negative logarithmic relationship between orthodox seed longevity and moisture content in hermetic storage is subject to a low-moisture-content limit (m(c)), but is m(c) affected by temperature? Methods Red clover (Trifolium pratense) and alfalfa (Medicago sativa) seeds were stored hermetically at 12 moisture contents (2-15 %) and five temperatures (-20, 30, 40, 50 and 65 degrees C) for up to 14.5 years, and loss in viability was estimated. Key Results Viability did not change during 14.5 years hermetic storage at -20 degrees C with moisture contents from 2.2 to 14.9 % for red clover, or 2.0 to 12.0 % for alfalfa. Negative logarithmic relationships between longevity and moisture contents > m(c) were detected at 30-65 degrees C, with discontinuities at low moisture contents; m(c) varied between 4.0 and 5.4 % (red clover) or 4.2 and 5.5 % (alfalfa), depending upon storage temperature. Within the ranges investigated, a reduction in moisture content below m(c) at any one temperature had no effect on longevity. Estimates of m(c) were greater the cooler the temperature, the relationship (P < 0.01) being curvilinear. Above m(c), the estimates of C-H and C-Q (i.e. the temperature term of the seed viability equation) did not differ (P > 0.10) between species, whereas those of K-E and C-W did (P < 0.001). Conclusions The low-moisture-content limit to negative logarithmic relationships between seed longevity and moisture content in hermetic storage increased the cooler the storage temperature, by approx. 1.5 % over 35 degrees C (4.0-4.2 % at 65 degrees C to 5.4-5.5 % at 30-40 degrees C) in these species. Further reduction in moisture content was not damaging. The variation in m(c) implies greater sensitivity of longevity to temperature above, compared with below, m(c). This was confirmed (P < 0.005).

A temporal limit to the association between flag leaf life extension by fungicides and wheat yields

Three field experiments, each repeated over two or three seasons, on winter wheat investigated a possible limit to the association between grain yield and flag leaf life, as extended by fungicide application. The experiments involved up to six cultivars and different application rates, timings and frequencies of the strobilurin azoxystrobin and the triazole epoxiconazole. In the 2000/01 and 2001/02 seasons, the relationships between the thermal time to 37 % green flag leaf area (m) and yield deviated from linearity. 'Broken stick' models were fitted to cultivar x experiment combinations within each season and the limit to the benefit to yield associated with extending flag leaf life was 700 degrees C days (S.E. = 20.7) and 725 degrees C days (S.E. = 9.33) after anthesis in 2000/01 and 2001/02, respectively. In 2002/03, the relationship between yield and in did not deviate significantly (P > 0.05) from linearity, but in this latter year the fungicide application failed to increase In past 700 degrees C days. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.

Limit-feeding a high-energy diet to meet energy requirements in the dry period alters plasma metabolite concentrations but does not affect intake or milk production in early lactation

Limit-feeding dry cows a high-energy diet may enable adequate energy intake to be sustained as parturition approaches, thus reducing the extent of negative energy balance after parturition. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of dry period feeding strategy on plasma concentrations of hormones and metabolites that reflect energy status. Multiparous Holstein cows (n = 18) were dried off 45 d before expected parturition, paired by expected calving date, parity, and previous lactation milk yield, and randomly assigned to 1 of 2 dry-period diets formulated to meet nutrient requirements at ad libitum or limited intakes. All cows were fed the same diet for ad libitum intake after parturition. Prepartum dry matter intake (DMI) for limit-fed cows was 9.4 kg/d vs. 13.7 kg/d for cows fed ad libitum. During the dry period, limit-fed cows consumed enough feed to meet calculated energy requirements, and ad libitum-fed cows were in positive calculated net energy for lactation (NEL) balance (0.02 vs. 6.37 Mcal/d, respectively). After parturition, milk yield, milk protein concentration, DMI, body condition score, and body weight were not affected by the prepartum treatments. Cows limit fed during the dry period had a less-negative calculated energy balance during wk 1 postpartum. Milk fat concentration and yield were greater for the ad libitum treatment during wk 1 but were lower in wk 2 and 3 postpartum. Plasma insulin and glucose concentrations decreased after calving. Plasma insulin concentration was greater in ad libitum-fed cows on d -2 relative to calving, but did not differ by dietary treatment at other times. Plasma glucose concentrations were lower before and after parturition for cows limit-fed during the dry period. Plasma nonesterified fatty acid concentrations peaked after parturition on d 1 and 4 for the limit-fed and ad libitum treatments, respectively, and were greater for limit-fed cows on d -18, -9, -5, and -2. Plasma tumor necrosis factor-alpha concentrations did not differ by treatment in either the pre- or postpartum period, but tended to decrease after parturition. Apart from a reduction in body energy loss in the first week after calving, limit feeding a higher NEL diet during the dry period had little effect on intake and milk production during the first month of lactation.

Combinatorial peptide ligand libraries and plant proteomics: a winning strategy at a price

The mechanism of action and properties of a solid-phase ligand library made of hexapeptides (combinatorial peptide ligand libraries or CPLL), for capturing the "hidden proteome", i.e. the low- and very low-abundance proteins constituting the vast majority of species in any proteome, as applied to plant tissues, are reviewed here. Plant tissues are notoriously recalcitrant to protein extraction and to proteome analysis. Firstly, rigid plant cell walls need to be mechanically disrupted to release the cell content and, in addition to their poor protein yield, plant tissues are rich in proteases and oxidative enzymes, contain phenolic compounds, starches, oils, pigments and secondary metabolites that massively contaminate protein extracts. In addition, complex matrices of polysaccharides, including large amount of anionic pectins, are present. All these species compete with the binding of proteins to the CPLL beads, impeding proper capture and identification / detection of low-abundance species. When properly pre-treated, plant tissue extracts are amenable to capture by the CPLL beads revealing thus many new species among them low-abundance proteins. Examples are given on the treatment of leaf proteins, of corn seed extracts and of exudate proteins (latex from Hevea brasiliensis). In all cases, the detection of unique gene products via CPLL capture is at least twice that of control, untreated sample.