The key role of the western boundary in linking the AMOC strength to the north-south pressure gradient

A key idea in the study of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is that its strength is proportional to the meridional density gradient, or more precisely, to the strength of the meridional pressure gradient. A physical basis that would tell us how to estimate the relevant meridional pressure gradient locally from the density distribution in numerical ocean models to test such an idea, has been lacking however. Recently, studies of ocean energetics have suggested that the AMOC is driven by the release of available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy (KE), and that such a conversion takes place primarily in the deep western boundary currents. In this paper, we develop an analytical description linking the western boundary current circulation below the interface separating the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) to the shape of this interface. The simple analytical model also shows how available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy at each location, and that the strength of the transport within the western boundary current is proportional to the local meridional pressure gradient at low latitudes. The present results suggest, therefore, that the conversion rate of potential energy may provide the necessary physical basis for linking the strength of the AMOC to the meridional pressure gradient, and that this could be achieved by a detailed study of the APE to KE conversion in the western boundary current.

Curl free pressure gradients over orography in a solution of the fully compressible Euler equations with implicit treatment of acoustic and gravity waves

Steep orography can cause noisy solutions and instability in models of the atmosphere. A new technique for modelling flow over orography is introduced which guarantees curl free gradients on arbitrary grids, implying that the pressure gradient term is not a spurious source of vorticity. This mimetic property leads to better hydrostatic balance and better energy conservation on test cases using terrain following grids. Curl-free gradients are achieved by using the co-variant components of velocity over orography rather than the usual horizontal and vertical components. In addition, gravity and acoustic waves are treated implicitly without the need for mean and perturbation variables or a hydrostatic reference profile. This enables a straightforward description of the implicit treatment of gravity waves. Results are presented of a resting atmosphere over orography and the curl-free pressure gradient formulation is advantageous. Results of gravity waves over orography are insensitive to the placement of terrain-following layers. The model with implicit gravity waves is stable in strongly stratified conditions, with N∆t up to at least 10 (where N is the Brunt-V ̈ais ̈al ̈a frequency). A warm bubble rising over orography is simulated and the curl free pressure gradient formulation gives much more accurate results for this test case than a model without this mimetic property.

Structure of turbulent flow over arrays of cubical roughness

The structure of turbulent flow over large roughness consisting of regular arrays of cubical obstacles is investigated numerically under constant pressure gradient conditions. Results are analysed in terms of first- and second-order statistics, by visualization of instantaneous flow fields and by conditional averaging. The accuracy of the simulations is established by detailed comparisons of first- and second-order statistics with wind-tunnel measurements. Coherent structures in the log region are investigated. Structure angles are computed from two-point correlations, and quadrant analysis is performed to determine the relative importance of Q2 and Q4 events (ejections and sweeps) as a function of height above the roughness. Flow visualization shows the existence of low-momentum regions (LMRs) as well as vortical structures throughout the log layer. Filtering techniques are used to reveal instantaneous examples of the association of the vortices with the LMRs, and linear stochastic estimation and conditional averaging are employed to deduce their statistical properties. The conditional averaging results reveal the presence of LMRs and regions of Q2 and Q4 events that appear to be associated with hairpin-like vortices, but a quantitative correspondence between the sizes of the vortices and those of the LMRs is difficult to establish; a simple estimate of the ratio of the vortex width to the LMR width gives a value that is several times larger than the corresponding ratio over smooth walls. The shape and inclination of the vortices and their spatial organization are compared to recent findings over smooth walls. Characteristic length scales are shown to scale linearly with height in the log region. Whilst there are striking qualitative similarities with smooth walls, there are also important differences in detail regarding: (i) structure angles and sizes and their dependence on distance from the rough surface; (ii) the flow structure close to the roughness; (iii) the roles of inflows into and outflows from cavities within the roughness; (iv) larger vortices on the rough wall compared to the smooth wall; (v) the effect of the different generation mechanism at the wall in setting the scales of structures.

On the long-term interannual variability of the east Asian winter monsoon

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and Siberian High (SH) are inherently related, based on prior studies of instrumental data available for recent decades (since 1958). Here we develop an extended instrumental EAWM index since 1871 that correlates significantly with the SH. These two indices show common modes of variation on the biennial (2-3 year) time scale. We also develop an index of the pressure gradient between the SH and the Aleutian Low, a gradient which critically impacts EAWM variability. This difference series, based on tree-ring reconstructions of the SH and the North Pacific Index (NPI) over the past 400 years, shows that the weakening of this gradient in recent decades has not been unusual in a long-term context. Correlations between the SH series and a tree-ring reconstruction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest a variable tropical-higher latitude teleconnection.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase

Wind-direction effects on urban-type flows

Practically all extant work on flows over obstacle arrays, whether laboratory experiments or numerical modelling, is for cases where the oncoming wind is normal to salient faces of the obstacles. In the field, however, this is rarely the case. Here, simulations of flows at various directions over arrays of cubes representing typical urban canopy regions are presented and discussed. The computations are of both direct numerical simulation and large-eddy simulation type. Attention is concentrated on the differences in the mean flow within the canopy region arising from the different wind directions and the consequent effects on global properties such as the total surface drag, which can change very significantly—by up to a factor of three in some circumstances. It is shown that for a given Reynolds number the typical viscous forces are generally a rather larger fraction of the pressure forces (principally the drag) for non-normal than for normal wind directions and that, dependent on the surface morphology, the average flow direction deep within the canopy can be largely independent of the oncoming wind direction. Even for regular arrays of regular obstacles, a wind direction not normal to the obstacle faces can in general generate a lateral lift force (in the direction normal to the oncoming flow). The results demonstrate this and it is shown how computations in a finite domain with the oncoming flow generated by an appropriate forcing term (e.g. a pressure gradient) then lead inevitably to an oncoming wind direction aloft that is not aligned with the forcing term vector.

Dispersion of a point-source release of a passive scalar through an urban-like array for different wind directions

The dispersion of a point-source release of a passive scalar in a regular array of cubical, urban-like, obstacles is investigated by means of direct numerical simulations. The simulations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and fully rough turbulent flow, at a roughness Reynolds number of Reτ = 500. The Navier–Stokes and scalar equations are integrated assuming a constant rate release from a point source close to the ground within the array. We focus on short-range dispersion, when most of the material is still within the building canopy. Mean and fluctuating concentrations are computed for three different pressure gradient directions (0◦ , 30◦ , 45◦). The results agree well with available experimental data measured in a water channel for a flow angle of 0◦ . Profiles of mean concentration and the three-dimensional structure of the dispersion pattern are compared for the different forcing angles. A number of processes affecting the plume structure are identified and discussed, including: (i) advection or channelling of scalar down ‘streets’, (ii) lateral dispersion by turbulent fluctuations and topological dispersion induced by dividing streamlines around buildings, (iii) skewing of the plume due to flow turning with height, (iv) detrainment by turbulent dispersion or mean recirculation, (v) entrainment and release of scalar in building wakes, giving rise to ‘secondary sources’, (vi) plume meandering due to unsteady turbulent fluctuations. Finally, results on relative concentration fluctuations are presented and compared with the literature for point source dispersion over flat terrain and urban arrays. Keywords Direct numerical simulation · Dispersion modelling · Urban array

Comment on “A modified leapfrog scheme for shallow water equations” by Wen-Yih Sun and Oliver M.T. Sun

A recent paper published in this journal considers the numerical integration of the shallow-water equations using the leapfrog time-stepping scheme [Sun Wen-Yih, Sun Oliver MT. A modified leapfrog scheme for shallow water equations. Comput Fluids 2011;52:69–72]. The authors of that paper propose using the time-averaged height in the numerical calculation of the pressure-gradient force, instead of the instantaneous height at the middle time step. The authors show that this modification doubles the maximum Courant number (and hence the maximum time step) at which the integrations are stable, doubling the computational efficiency. Unfortunately, the pressure-averaging technique proposed by the authors is not original. It was devised and published by Shuman [5] and has been widely used in the atmosphere and ocean modelling community for over 40 years.

Standardized test to evaluate numerical weather prediction algorithms

In order to assist in comparing the computational techniques used in different models, the authors propose a standardized set of one-dimensional numerical experiments that could be completed for each model. The results of these experiments, with a simplified form of the computational representation for advection, diffusion, pressure gradient term, Coriolis term, and filter used in the models, should be reported in the peer-reviewed literature. Specific recommendations are described in this paper.

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.

The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change

The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.