Predictive vegetation mapping in the Mediterranean context: Considerations and methodological issues

The need to map vegetation communities over large areas for nature conservation and to predict the impact of environmental change on vegetation distributions, has stimulated the development of techniques for predictive vegetation mapping. Predictive vegetation studies start with the development of a model relating vegetation units and mapped physical data, followed by the application of that model to a geographic database and over a wide range of spatial scales. This field is particularly important for identifying sites for rare and endangered species and locations of high biodiversity such as many areas of the Mediterranean Basin. The potential of the approach is illustrated with a mapping exercise in the alti-meditterranean zone of Lefka Ori in Crete. The study established the nature of the relationship between vegetation communities and physical data including altitude, slope and geomorphology. In this way the knowledge of community distribution was improved enabling a GIS-based model capable of predicting community distribution to be constructed. The paper describes the development of the spatial model and the methodological problems of predictive mapping for monitoring Mediterranean ecosystems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of predictive vegetation mapping and other spatial techniques, such as fuzzy mapping and geostatistics, for improving our understanding of the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

The influence of livestock management on habitat quality for farmland birds

This review covers research linking foraging habitat quality for birds to livestock management in lowland farmland. Based on this research we propose a framework for predicting the value of grazing systems to birds. This predictive framework is needed to guide the development of agri-environment measures to address farmland bird declines in pastoral areas. We show that the exacting requirements of declining granivorous birds pose the greatest challenges, while the needs of soil invertebrate feeding species are more easily met.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Population estimates and habitat use by the critically endangered Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis in south-eastern Kenya

The Taita Apalis Apalis fuscigularis (IUCN category: Critically Endangered) is a species endemic to south-eastern Kenya. We assessed population size and habitat use in the three forest sites in which it is known to occur (Ngangao, Chawia and Vuria, totalling 257 ha). The estimate of total population size, derived from distance sampling at 412 sample points, ranged from 310 to 654 individuals, with the northern section of Ngangao fragment having 10-fold higher densities than Chawia (2.47-4.93 versus 0.22-0.41 birds ha(-1)). Ngangao north alone hosted 50% of the global population of the species. The highly degraded Vuria fragment also had moderately high densities (1.63-3.72 birds ha(-1)) suggesting that the species tolerates some human disturbance. Taita Apalis prefers vegetation with abundant climbers, but the predictive power of habitat use models was low, suggesting that habitat structure is not a primary cause for the low density of the species in Chawia. Protecting the subpopulation in the northern section of Ngangao is a priority, as is identifying factors responsible of the low abundance in Chawia, because ameliorating conditions in this large fragment could substantially increase the population of Taita Apalis.

From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions

The translation of an ensemble of model runs into a probability distribution is a common task in model-based prediction. Common methods for such ensemble interpretations proceed as if verification and ensemble were draws from the same underlying distribution, an assumption not viable for most, if any, real world ensembles. An alternative is to consider an ensemble as merely a source of information rather than the possible scenarios of reality. This approach, which looks for maps between ensembles and probabilistic distributions, is investigated and extended. Common methods are revisited, and an improvement to standard kernel dressing, called ‘affine kernel dressing’ (AKD), is introduced. AKD assumes an affine mapping between ensemble and verification, typically not acting on individual ensemble members but on the entire ensemble as a whole, the parameters of this mapping are determined in parallel with the other dressing parameters, including a weight assigned to the unconditioned (climatological) distribution. These amendments to standard kernel dressing, albeit simple, can improve performance significantly and are shown to be appropriate for both overdispersive and underdispersive ensembles, unlike standard kernel dressing which exacerbates over dispersion. Studies are presented using operational numerical weather predictions for two locations and data from the Lorenz63 system, demonstrating both effectiveness given operational constraints and statistical significance given a large sample.

Why we need new spectacles: Mapping the experiential dimension in prehistoric Cretan landscapes

The Bronze to Iron Age transition in Crete, a period of state collapse and insecurity, saw the island's rugged, high-contrast topography used in striking new ways. The visual drama of many of the new site locations has stimulated significant research over the last hundred years, with explanation of the change as the main focus. The new sites are not monumental in character: the vast majority are settlements, and much of the information about them comes from survey. Perhaps as a result, the new site map has not been much studied from phenomenological perspectives. A focus on the visual and experiential aspects of the new landscape can offer valuable insights into social structures at this period, and illuminate social developments prefiguring the emergence of polis states in Crete by c. 700 BC. To develop, share and evaluate this type of integrated study, digital reconstructive techniques are still under-used in this region. I highlight their potential value in addressing a regularly-identified shortcoming of phenomenological approaches-their necessarily subjective emphasis.

Geochemical mapping of carbonate sediments in the Makgadikgadi basin, Botswana using moderate resolution remote sensing data

This paper maps the carbonate geochemistry of the Makgadikgadi Pans region of northern Botswana from moderate resolution (500 m pixels) remotely sensed data, to assess the impact of various geomorphological processes on surficial carbonate distribution. Previous palaeo-environmental studies have demonstrated that the pans have experienced several highstands during the Quaternary, forming calcretes around shoreline embayments. The pans are also a significant regional source of dust, and some workers have suggested that surficial carbonate distributions may be controlled, in part, by wind regime. Field studies of carbonate deposits in the region have also highlighted the importance of fluvial and groundwater processes in calcrete formation. However, due to the large area involved and problems of accessibility, the carbonate distribution across the entire Makgadikgadi basin remains poorly understood. The MODIS instrument permits mapping of carbonate distribution over large areas; comparison with estimates from Landsat Thematic Mapper data show reasonable agreement, and there is good agreement with estimates from laboratory analysis of field samples. The results suggest that palaeo-lake highstands, reconstructed here using the SRTM 3 arc-second digital elevation model, have left behind surficial carbonate deposits, which can be mapped by the MODIS instrument. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Habitat re-creation and restoration at the landscape scale: woodlands in Wales

The aim of this three year project funded by the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) is to develop techniques firstly, to refine and update existing targets for habitat restoration and re-creation at the landscape scale and secondly, to develop a GIS-based model for the implementation of those targets at the local scale. Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) is being used to map Landscape Types across the whole of Wales as the first stage towards setting strategic habitat targets. The GIS habitat model uses data from the digital Phase I Habitat Survey for Wales to determine the suitability of individual sites for restoration to specific habitat types, including broadleaf woodland. The long-term aim is to develop a system that strengthens the character of Welsh landscapes and provides real biodiversity benefits based upon realistic targets given limited resources for habitat restoration and re-creation.

Mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes in the Okstindan area of northern Norway, using Geomorphic Process Units as derived from remote sensing and ground survey

The delineation of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs) aims to quantify past, current and future geomorphological processes and the sediment flux associated with them. Five GPUs have been identified for the Okstindan area of northern Norway and these were derived from the combination of Landsat satellite imagery (TM and ETM+) with stereo aerial photographs (used to construct a Digital Elevation Model) and ground survey. The Okstindan study area is sub-arctic and mountainous and is dominated by glacial and periglacial processes. The GPUs exclude the glacial system (some 37% of the study area) and hence they are focussed upon periglacial and colluvial processes. The identified GPUs are: 1. solifluction and rill erosion; 2. talus creep, slope wash and rill erosion; 3. accumulation of debris by rock and boulder fall; 4. rockwalls; and 5. stable ground with dissolved transport. The GPUs have been applied to a ‘test site’ within the study area in order to illustrate their potential for mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes. The test site within the study area is a catchment which is representative of the range of geomorphological processes identified.

Wetland restoration within agricultural watersheds: Balancing water quality protection with habitat conservation

Peat wetlands that have been restored from agricultural Land have the potential to act as Long term sources of phosphorus (P) and, therefore have to potenital to accelerate freshwater eutrophication. During a two-year study the water table in a eutrophic fen peat that was managed by pump drainage fluctuated annually between +20 cm and -60 cm relative to ground Level. This precise management was facilitated by the high hydraulic conductivity (K) of the humified peat (1.1 x 10(-5) m s(-1)) below around 60 cm depth. However, during one week of intermittent pumping, as much as 50 g ha(-1) dissolved P entered the pumped ditch. Summer. rainfall events and autumn reflooding also triggered P losses. The P Losses were attributed to the low P sorption capacity (217 mg kg(-1)) of the saturated peat below 60 cm, combined with its high K and the reductive dissolution of Fe bound P.

Recent habitat degradation in karstic Lake Uluabat, western Turkey: A coupled limnological-palaeolimnological approach

The Ramsar site of Lake Uluabat, western Turkey, suffers from eutrophication, urban and industrial pollution and water abstraction, and its water levels are managed artificially. Here we combine monitoring and palaeolimnological. techniques to investigate spatial and temporal limnological variability and ecosystem impact, using an ostracod and mollusc survey to strengthen interpretation of the fossil record. A combination of low invertebrate Biological Monitoring Working Party scores (<10) and the dominance of eutrophic diatoms in the modern lake confirms its poor ecological status. Palaeolimnological analysis of recent (last >200 yr) changes in organic and carbonate content, diatoms, stable isotopes, ostracods and molluscs in a lake sediment core (UL20A) indicates a 20th century trend towards increased sediment accumulation rates and eutrophication which was probably initiated by deforestation and agriculture. The most marked ecological shift occurs in the early 1960s, however. A subtle rise in diatom-inferred total phosphorus and an inferred reduction in submerged aquatic macrophyte cover accompanies a major increase in sediment accumulation rate. An associated marked shift in ostracod stable isotope data indicative of reduced seasonality and a change in hydrological input suggests major impact from artificial water management practices, all of which appears to have culminated in the sustained loss of submerged macrophytes since 2000. The study indicates it is vital to take both land-use and water management practices into account in devising restoration strategies. in a wider context, the results have important implications for the conservation of shallow karstic lakes, the functioning of which is still poorly understood. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.