The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Recategorization and subgroup identification: predicting and preventing threats from common ingroups

Much work has supported the idea that recategorization of ingroups and outgroups into a superordinate category can have beneficial effects for intergroup relations. Recently, however, increases in bias following recategorization have been observed in some contexts. It is argued that such unwanted consequences of recategorization will only be apparent for perceivers who are highly committed to their ingroup subgroups. In Experiments 1 to 3, the authors observed, on both explicit and implicit measures, that an increase in bias following recategorization occurred only for high subgroup identifiers. In Experiment 4, it was found that maintaining the salience of subgroups within a recategorized superordinate group averted this increase in bias for high identifiers and led overall to the lowest levels of bias. These findings are discussed in the context of recent work on the Common Ingroup Identity Model.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and administration system on prescribing errors, administration errors and staff time: a before-and-after study

Objectives: To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and electronic medication administration record (EMAR) system on prescribing and administration errors, confirmation of patient identity before administration, and staff time. Design, setting and participants: Before-and-after study in a surgical ward of a teaching hospital, involving patients and staff of that ward. Intervention: Closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and EMAR system. Main outcome measures: Percentage of new medication orders with a prescribing error, percentage of doses with medication administration errors (MAEs) and percentage given without checking patient identity. Time spent prescribing and providing a ward pharmacy service. Nursing time on medication tasks. Results: Prescribing errors were identified in 3.8% of 2450 medication orders pre-intervention and 2.0% of 2353 orders afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). MAEs occurred in 7.0% of 1473 non-intravenous doses pre-intervention and 4.3% of 1139 afterwards (p = 0.005; χ2 test). Patient identity was not checked for 82.6% of 1344 doses pre-intervention and 18.9% of 1291 afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). Medical staff required 15 s to prescribe a regular inpatient drug pre-intervention and 39 s afterwards (p = 0.03; t test). Time spent providing a ward pharmacy service increased from 68 min to 98 min each weekday (p = 0.001; t test); 22% of drug charts were unavailable pre-intervention. Time per drug administration round decreased from 50 min to 40 min (p = 0.006; t test); nursing time on medication tasks outside of drug rounds increased from 21.1% to 28.7% (p = 0.006; χ2 test). Conclusions: A closed-loop electronic prescribing, dispensing and barcode patient identification system reduced prescribing errors and MAEs, and increased confirmation of patient identity before administration. Time spent on medication-related tasks increased.

A flexible monitoring and notification system for distributed resources

Resource monitoring in distributed systems is required to understand the 'health' of the overall system and to help identify particular problems, such as dysfunctional hardware, a faulty, system or application software. Desirable characteristics for monitoring systems are the ability to connect to any number of different types of monitoring agents and to provide different views of the system, based on a client's particular preferences. This paper outlines and discusses the ongoing activities within the GridRM wide-area resource-monitoring project.

Using a RESTful messaging and registry system to support a range a distributed applications

Tycho was conceived in 2003 in response to a need by the GridRM [1] resource-monitoring project for a ldquolight-weightrdquo, scalable and easy to use wide-area distributed registry and messaging system. Since Tycho's first release in 2006 a number of modifications have been made to the system to make it easier to use and more flexible. Since its inception, Tycho has been utilised across a number of application domains including widearea resource monitoring, distributed queries across archival databases, providing services for the nodes of a Cray supercomputer, and as a system for transferring multi-terabyte scientific datasets across the Internet. This paper provides an overview of the initial Tycho system, describes a number of applications that utilise Tycho, discusses a number of new utilities, and how the Tycho infrastructure has evolved in response to experience of building applications with it.

A camera based digit location and recognition system for garment tracking

Garment information tracking is required for clean room garment management. In this paper, we present a camera-based robust system with implementation of Optical Character Reconition (OCR) techniques to fulfill garment label recognition. In the system, a camera is used for image capturing; an adaptive thresholding algorithm is employed to generate binary images; Connected Component Labelling (CCL) is then adopted for object detection in the binary image as a part of finding the ROI (Region of Interest); Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with the BP (Back Propagation) learning algorithm are used for digit recognition; and finally the system is verified by a system database. The system has been tested. The results show that it is capable of coping with variance of lighting, digit twisting, background complexity, and font orientations. The system performance with association to the digit recognition rate has met the design requirement. It has achieved real-time and error-free garment information tracking during the testing.

Slogger: a profiling and analysis system based on semantic web technologies

Increasingly, distributed systems are being used to host all manner of applications. While these platforms provide a relatively cheap and effective means of executing applications, so far there has been little work in developing tools and utilities that can help application developers understand problems with the supporting software, or the executing applications. To fully understand why an application executing on a distributed system is not behaving as would be expected it is important that not only the application, but also the underlying middleware, and the operating system are analysed too, otherwise issues could be missed and certainly overall performance profiling and fault diagnoses would be harder to understand. We believe that one approach to profiling and the analysis of distributed systems and the associated applications is via the plethora of log files generated at runtime. In this paper we report on a system (Slogger), that utilises various emerging Semantic Web technologies to gather the heterogeneous log files generated by the various layers in a distributed system and unify them in common data store. Once unified, the log data can be queried and visualised in order to highlight potential problems or issues that may be occurring in the supporting software or the application itself.

PEGylated amyloid peptide nanocontainer delivery and release system

A micellar nanocontainer delivery and release system is designed on the basis of a peptide-polymer conjugate. The hybrid molecules self-assemble into micelles comprising a modified amyloid peptide core surrounded by a PEG corona. The modified amyloid peptide previously studied in our group forms helical ribbons based on a beta-sheet motif and contains beta-amino acids that are excluded from the beta-sheet structure, thus being potentially useful as fibrillization inhibitors. In the model peptide-PEG hybrid system studied, enzymatic degradation using alpha-chymotrypsin leads to selective cleavage close to the PEG-peptide linkage, break up of the micelles, and release of peptides in unassociated form. The release of monomeric peptide is useful because aggregation of the released peptide into beta-sheet amyloid fibrils is not observed. This concept has considerable potential in the targeted delivery of peptides for therapeutic applications.

Biogas innovation processes and innovation system: lessons from Davao del Sur, Philippines

This paper examines biogas innovation system and processes in two farming communities in Davao del Sur, Philippines. Innovation histories were traced through workshops, semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis. The paper shows that there were diverse innovation actors both from public and private sectors. Restrictive attitudes and practices resulted in weak and limited interactions among actors. Multi-actor interaction was weak, signifying a lack of innovation actors that focus on creating, developing and strengthening linkages, networks and partnerships. The lack of support in the socio-organisational institutions that constitute the enabling environment within which innovation actors operate may lead to systemic failure.