Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Dynamics and diversity of the 'Atopobium cluster' in the human faecal microbiota, and phenotypic characterization of 'Atopobium cluster' isolates

This study monitored the dynamics and diversity of the human faecal 'Atopobium cluster' over a 3-month period using a polyphasic approach. Fresh faecal samples were collected fortnightly from 13 healthy donors (6 males and 7 females) aged between 26 and 61 years. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to enumerate total (EUB338mix) and 'Atopobium cluster' (ATO291) bacteria, with counts ranging between 1.12 × 1011 and 9.95 × 1011, and 1.03 × 109 and 1.16 × 1011 cells (g dry weight faeces)-1, respectively. The 'Atopobium cluster' population represented 0.2-22 % of the total bacteria, with proportions donor-dependent. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) using 'Atopobium cluster'-specific primers demonstrated faecal populations of these bacteria were relatively stable, with bands identified as Collinsella aerofaciens, Collinsella intestinalis/Collinsella stercoris, Collinsella tanakaei, Coriobacteriaceae sp. PEAV3-3, Eggerthella lenta, Gordonibacter pamelaeae, Olsenella profusa, Olsenella uli and Paraeggerthella hongkongensis in the DGGE profiles of individuals. Colony PCR was used to identify 'Atopobium cluster' bacteria isolated from faeces (n = 224 isolates). 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis of isolates demonstrated Collinsella aerofaciens represented the predominant (88 % of isolates) member of the 'Atopobium cluster' found in human faeces, being found in nine individuals. Eggerthella lenta was identified in three individuals (3.6 % of isolates). Isolates of Collinsella tanakaei, an 'Enorma' sp. and representatives of novel species belonging to the 'Atopobium cluster' were also identified in the study. Phenotypic characterization of the isolates demonstrated their highly saccharolytic nature and heterogeneous phenotypic profiles, and 97 % of the isolates displayed lipase activity.

Scalable and fault tolerant failure detection and consensus

Future extreme-scale high-performance computing systems will be required to work under frequent component failures. The MPI Forum's User Level Failure Mitigation proposal has introduced an operation, MPI_Comm_shrink, to synchronize the alive processes on the list of failed processes, so that applications can continue to execute even in the presence of failures by adopting algorithm-based fault tolerance techniques. This MPI_Comm_shrink operation requires a fault tolerant failure detection and consensus algorithm. This paper presents and compares two novel failure detection and consensus algorithms. The proposed algorithms are based on Gossip protocols and are inherently fault-tolerant and scalable. The proposed algorithms were implemented and tested using the Extreme-scale Simulator. The results show that in both algorithms the number of Gossip cycles to achieve global consensus scales logarithmically with system size. The second algorithm also shows better scalability in terms of memory and network bandwidth usage and a perfect synchronization in achieving global consensus.

The relationship between diffuse spectral reflectance of the soil and its cation exchange capacity is scale-dependent

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is increasingly being used to predict numerous soil physical, chemical and biochemical properties. However, soil properties and processes vary at different scales and, as a result, relationships between soil properties often depend on scale. In this paper we report on how the relationship between one such property, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and the DRS of the soil depends on spatial scale. We show this by means of a nested analysis of covariance of soils sampled on a balanced nested design in a 16 km × 16 km area in eastern England. We used principal components analysis on the DRS to obtain a reduced number of variables while retaining key variation. The first principal component accounted for 99.8% of the total variance, the second for 0.14%. Nested analysis of the variation in the CEC and the two principal components showed that the substantial variance components are at the > 2000-m scale. This is probably the result of differences in soil composition due to parent material. We then developed a model to predict CEC from the DRS and used partial least squares (PLS) regression do to so. Leave-one-out cross-validation results suggested a reasonable predictive capability (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.048 molc kg− 1). However, the results from the independent validation were not as good, with R2 = 0.27, RMSE = 0.056 molc kg− 1 and an overall correlation of 0.52. This would indicate that DRS may not be useful for predictions of CEC. When we applied the analysis of covariance between predicted and observed we found significant scale-dependent correlations at scales of 50 and 500 m (0.82 and 0.73 respectively). DRS measurements can therefore be useful to predict CEC if predictions are required, for example, at the field scale (50 m). This study illustrates that the relationship between DRS and soil properties is scale-dependent and that this scale dependency has important consequences for prediction of soil properties from DRS data

The binding site distance test score: a robust method for the assessment of predicted protein binding sites

We propose a novel method for scoring the accuracy of protein binding site predictions – the Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) score. Recently, the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) has been used to evaluate binding site predictions, both by developers of new methods and by the assessors for the community wide prediction experiment – CASP8. Whilst being a rigorous scoring method, the MCC does not take into account the actual 3D location of the predicted residues from the observed binding site. Thus, an incorrectly predicted site that is nevertheless close to the observed binding site will obtain an identical score to the same number of nonbinding residues predicted at random. The MCC is somewhat affected by the subjectivity of determining observed binding residues and the ambiguity of choosing distance cutoffs. By contrast the BDT method produces continuous scores ranging between 0 and 1, relating to the distance between the predicted and observed residues. Residues predicted close to the binding site will score higher than those more distant, providing a better reflection of the true accuracy of predictions. The CASP8 function predictions were evaluated using both the MCC and BDT methods and the scores were compared. The BDT was found to strongly correlate with the MCC scores whilst also being less susceptible to the subjectivity of defining binding residues. We therefore suggest that this new simple score is a potentially more robust method for future evaluations of protein-ligand binding site predictions.

Interaction of pesticides with p-glycoprotein and other ABC proteins: A survey of the possible importance to insecticide, herbicide and fungicide resistance

P-glycoproteins (p-gps) are ubiquitous membrane proteins from the ABC (ATP-binding cassette) family. They have been found in many animals, bacteria, plants and fungi and are extremely important in regulating a wide range of xenobiotics including pesticides. P-gps have been linked to xenobiotic resistance, most famously in resistance to cancer drug treatments. Their wide substrate range has led to what is known as "multidrug resistance", where resistance developed to one type of xenobiotic gives resistance to a different classes of xenobiotic. P-gps are a major contributor to drug resistance in mammalian tumours and infections of protozoan parasites such as Plasmodium and Leishmania. There is a growing body of literature suggesting that p-gps, and other ABC proteins, are important in regulating pesticide toxicity and represent potential control failure through the development of pesticide resistance, in both agricultural and medical pests. At the same time, aspects of their biochemistry offer new hope in pest control, in particular in furthering our understanding of toxicity and offering insights into how we can improve control without recourse to new chemical discovery. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

Fracture toughness and cutting

An exploratory model for cutting is presented which incorporates fracture toughness as well as the commonly considered effects of plasticity and friction. The periodic load fluctuations Been in cutting force dynamometer tests are predicted, and considerations of chatter and surface finish follow. A non-dimensional group is put forward to classify different regimes of material response to machining. It leads to tentative explanations for the difficulties of cutting materials such as ceramics and brittlo polymers, and also relates to the formation of discontinuous chips. Experiments on a range of solids with widely varying toughness/strength ratios generally agree with the analysis.

In vitro fermentation of oat and barley derived beta-glucans by human faecal microbiota

Fermentation of beta-glucan fractions from barley [average molecular mass (MM), of 243, 172, and 137 kDa] and oats (average MM of 230 and 150 kDa) by the human faecal microbiota was investigated. Fractions were supplemented to pH-controlled anaerobic batch culture fermenters inoculated with human faecal samples from three donors, in triplicate, for each substrate. Microbiota changes were monitored by fluorescent in situ hybridization; groups enumerated were: Bifidobacterium genus, Bacteroides and Prevotella group, Clostridium histolyticum subgroup, Ruminococcus-Eubacterium-Clostridium (REC) cluster, Lactobacillus-Enterococcus group, Atopobium cluster, and clostridial cluster IX. Short-chain fatty acids and lactic acid were measured by HPLC. The C. histolyticum subgroup increased significantly in all vessels and clostridial cluster IX maintained high populations with all fractions. The Bacteroides-Prevotella group increased with all but the 243-kDa barley and 230-kDa oat substrates. In general beta-glucans displayed no apparent prebiotic potential. The SCFA profile (51 : 32 : 17; acetate : propionate : butyrate) was considered propionate-rich. In a further study a beta-glucan oligosaccharide fraction was produced with a degree of polymerization of 3-4. This fraction was supplemented to small-scale faecal batch cultures and gave significant increases in the Lactobacillus-Enterococcus group; however, the prebiotic potential of this fraction was marginal compared with that of inulin.

Humans ignore motion and stereo cues in favor of a fictional stable world

As we move through the world, our eyes acquire a sequence of images. The information from this sequence is sufficient to determine the structure of a three-dimensional scene, up to a scale factor determined by the distance that the eyes have moved [1, 2]. Previous evidence shows that the human visual system accounts for the distance the observer has walked [3,4] and the separation of the eyes [5-8] when judging the scale, shape, and distance of objects. However, in an immersive virtual-reality environment, observers failed to notice when a scene expanded or contracted, despite having consistent information about scale from both distance walked and binocular vision. This failure led to large errors in judging the size of objects. The pattern of errors cannot be explained by assuming a visual reconstruction of the scene with an incorrect estimate of interocular separation or distance walked. Instead, it is consistent with a Bayesian model of cue integration in which the efficacy of motion and disparity cues is greater at near viewing distances. Our results imply that observers are more willing to adjust their estimate of interocular separation or distance walked than to accept that the scene has changed in size.

Group stochastic search for object detection and tracking

A technique is presented for locating and tracking objects in cluttered environments. Agents are randomly distributed across the image, and subsequently grouped around targets. Each agent uses a weightless neural network and a histogram intersection technique to score its location. The system has been used to locate and track a head in 320x240 resolution video at up to 15fps.

Oxygen isotope composition of bivalve seasonal growth increments and ambient water in the rivers Rhine and Meuse

The application of oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}18O) from freshwater bivalves as a proxy for river discharge conditions in the Rhine and Meuse rivers is investigated. We compared a dataset of water temperature and water {delta}18O values with a selection of recent shell {delta}18O records for two species of the genus Unio in order to establish: (1) whether differences between the rivers in water {delta}18O values, reflecting river discharge conditions, are recorded in unionid shells; and (2) to what extent ecological parameters influence the accuracy of bivalve shell {delta}18O values as proxies of seasonal, water oxygen isotope conditions in these rivers. The results show that shells from the two rivers differ significantly in {delta}18O values, reflecting different source waters for these two rivers. The seasonal shell {delta}18O records show truncated sinusoidal patterns with narrow peaks and wide troughs, caused by temperature fractionation and winter growth cessation. Interannual growth rate reconstructions show an ontogenetic growth rate decrease. Growth lines in the shell often, but not always, coincide with winter growth cessations in the {delta}18O record, suggesting that growth cessations in the shell {delta}18O records are a better age estimator than counting internal growth lines. Seasonal predicted and measured {delta}18O values correspond well, supporting the hypothesis that these unionids precipitate their shells in oxygen isotopic equilibrium. This means that (sub-) fossil unionids can be used to reconstruct spring-summer river discharge conditions, such as Meuse low-discharge events caused by droughts and Rhine meltwater-influx events caused by melting of snow in the Alps.